Lets remind ourselves how hard the economic recession predictions failed

[Crusile]

Money supply theorists fail once again, the economy is better off now than it was pre-covid.

btw, like the stock market theres no reason to think bitcoin will go down with such a strong economy and low unemployment, I am long btc. The BTC bullcase about halving, limited supply, dumb bitcoiners constantly depositing their paychecks (low unemployment), are reasons why BTC is bs and needed to be banned, there is no stopping it from goingup. But then again, legit and I dont see the flaw so Im officially entering BTC

LONG STOCK MARKET AND BTC, YES YOU SHOULD HAVE DONE IT AT A LOWER PRICE. S&P500 IS RIGGED TO GO UP FOREVER UNTIL THE HARMFUL BS FAVOURABLE TAX DEFERED GOVERNMENT LAWS RIGHTFULLY GET REMOVED

 

[thereallegend]

smart man

 

[thecel]

Cope bro Bitcoin (and a bunch of coins) recently went down, and I lost so much fucking money.

 

[thecel]

I bought an option, and it went down to $0.01

RAGE https://looksmax.org/threads/imagine-trading-options-in-the-stock-market.708928

looksmax.org

 

[User49]

i longed at 18k but wasn’t that much

 

[Octavian_Augustus]

I disagree. The Macro picture is pretty fucking dire.

Growth has slowed globally, many countries are having issues paying back their debt, holding their currency steady, and dealing with inflation, the financial sector is in turmoil with bank failures and closed capital markets, the real estate sector is leveraged and in trouble, the labor market is reversing and weakening slowly but surely with lay-offs in the news every day, corporate earnings are slowing, Consumers are running out of juice (savings and credit) ,the world is de-globalizing and near-shoring / friend-shoring is increasing costs, OPEC wants to raise prices. I could go on for ever. A recession and global slow down in growth are likely / inevitable. The fed over-indexed on raising interest hikes and de-stabilized the financial sector, wrecked foreign currencies, put other countries in potential default and will have most likely caused a recession. Recession or sub 1% growth in the US is almost guaranteed.

Let's see how much the stock market has priced this in already but if we get bad growth figures, shitty corporate earnings etc etc it will get hit.

Gvt regulation on crypto is also bound to increase following FTX shenanigans even straight shooters like Coinbase are getting cracked down. IDK if people will flee to crypto as a safe haven asset (That would be ridiculous tbh. Too much uncertainty. but who knows)

Maybe Gold? Don't take my word for it.

The illusion that we have a strong economy is the result of a bounce back from the shut down COVID economy, quantitative easing, and cheap money.

 

[mogger123]

I disagree. The Macro picture is pretty fucking dire.

Growth has slowed globally, many countries are having issues paying back their debt, holding their currency steady, and dealing with inflation, the financial sector is in turmoil with bank failures and closed capital markets, the real estate sector is leveraged and in trouble, the labor market is reversing and weakening slowly but surely with lay-offs in the news every day, corporate earnings are slowing, Consumers are running out of juice (savings and credit) ,the world is de-globalizing and near-shoring / friend-shoring is increasing costs, OPEC wants to raise prices. I could go on for ever. A recession and global slow down in growth are likely / inevitable. The fed over-indexed on raising interest hikes and de-stabilized the financial sector, wrecked foreign currencies, put other countries in potential default and will have most likely caused a recession. Recession or sub 1% growth in the US is almost guaranteed.

Let's see how much the stock market has priced this in already but if we get bad growth figures, shitty corporate earnings etc etc it will get hit.

Gvt regulation on crypto is also bound to increase following FTX shenanigans even straight shooters like Coinbase are getting cracked down. IDK if people will flee to crypto as a safe haven asset (That would be ridiculous tbh. Too much uncertainty. but who knows)

Maybe Gold? Don't take my word for it.

The illusion that we have a strong economy is the result of a bounce back from the shut down COVID economy, quantitative easing, and cheap money.

most of this is priced in, the fed still seems pretty on course for a soft landing + regulation for crypto is bullish

 

[Yuno_howitez]

only recession i care about is my chin recession

 

[;-;]

you've never heard of cantillon effect right?

 

[Octavian_Augustus]

most of this is priced in, the fed still seems pretty on course for a soft landing + regulation for crypto is bullish

I don't believe in perfectly efficient markets hypothesis. The market can't price in everything perfectly. All of the things I listed are developing dynamics. There's a lot of uncertainty regarding growth rates, stability in the financial sector, the real-estate sector, soft-landing vs hard-landing, future rate hikes and all the other variables I listed. The market isn't a crystal ball. For example, people thought the banking crisis was slowing down and just this Friday the FDIC announced it was taking First Republic into receivership.

IDK where you got your news that regulation on crypto is bullish when the SEC sent a notice to Coinbase that it wants to sue them for violating securities laws. Coinbase is the most reasonable straight shooting exchange that holds deposits 1-1 and even they can't escape the regulatory crackdown.

 

[mogger123]

I don't believe in perfectly efficient markets hypothesis. The market can't price in everything perfectly. All of the things I listed are developing dynamics. There's a lot of uncertainty regarding growth rates, stability in the financial sector, the real-estate sector, soft-landing vs hard-landing, future rate hikes and all the other variables I listed. The market isn't a crystal ball.

IDK where you got your news that regulation on crypto is bullish when the SEC sent a notice to Coinbase that it wants to sue them for violating securities laws. Coinbase is the most reasonable straight shooting exchange that holds deposits 1-1 and even they can't escape the regulatory crackdown.

only retards do, the efficient market hypothesis is obviously bunk. but the general ideas that you are getting at are things the market is keenly aware of. sure, things could begin to develop negatively, but the adverse is also true.

let me rephrase that: regulation, when not done to intentionally harm and confuse the crypto industry by a corrupt, hypocritical cuck called gary gensler, who will hopefully face justice for his gross incompetence and failure to provide any clarity whatsoever, is bullish.

funnily enough, giving large institutions within the financial markets the ability to compliantly invest in crypto, removing the fears associated with regulatory uncertainty is extremely bullish

 

[Octavian_Augustus]

only retards do, the efficient market hypothesis is obviously bunk. but the general ideas that you are getting at are things the market is keenly aware of. sure, things could begin to develop negatively, but the adverse is also true.

let me rephrase that: regulation, when not done to intentionally harm and confuse the crypto industry by a corrupt, hypocritical cuck called gary gensler, who will hopefully face justice for his gross incompetence and failure to provide any clarity whatsoever, is bullish.

funnily enough, giving large institutions within the financial markets the ability to compliantly invest in crypto, removing the fears associated with regulatory uncertainty is extremely bullish

We could go round and round. Point is there's a lot of volatile moving pieces and risk factors that could blow up (or not) at different levels of magnitude so taking a stance that the market is for sure going up (what OP did) is a bit foolish. Markets jitter every time earnings are missed, growth numbers or CPI prints are off target etc etc. so imagine what would happen if the commercial real estate market crashes for instance.

I hope you are right about crypto I have a small portfolio myself but it's a long-shot. We have to see how the regulatory framework actually pans out and that's not the only driver of crypto valuations.

 

[Crusile]

binary macro economic predictions is another infinite EVs hack, though you need to positioned as a utuber, economist, financer etc to benefit

 

[Crusile]

The market is so (bbc) bullish right now, I cant wait to see it fk inflation believing financial analists in the ass

 

[Crusile]

Cope bro Bitcoin (and a bunch of coins) recently went down, and I lost so much fucking money.

This is exactly how they get you, hodl with me and ignore the monsters they, want to see you sad and weak so you sell

 

[eduardkoopman]

yeah, recession of 2008 I recall. came fully unexpected. While expected ones, I recall to have never happened.

also, the yield curve is inverted as fuck at the moment. Which may cause a recession, or weird stock market movement in the near future, according to history.

also. recession IS NOT the stock market, and BTC price, and so on.
I recall the giga shit economic time of 2008 till 2012. Which were in hindsight great times, for people that bought stocks and gold/silver and real estate.

 

[looksmaxxed]

recession already happened, we are currently in one.

 

[Crusile]

recession already happened, we are currently in one.

a tiny amount of placebo inflation does not equal a recession

yeah, recession of 2008 I recall. came fully unexpected. While expected ones, I recall to have never happened.

also, the yield curve is inverted as fuck at the moment. Which may cause a recession, or weird stock market movement in the near future, according to history.

also. recession IS NOT the stock market, and BTC price, and so on.
I recall the giga shit economic time of 2008 till 2012. Which were in hindsight great times, for people that bought stocks and gold/silver and real estate.

the yield curve is wrong