Raja Porus
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Situation is significant enough to warrant global planetary defence community's attention. Astronomers plan to use James Webb Space Telescope to get precise estimate of asteroid's size.
US-based B612 Asteroid Institute has mapped out multiple possible trajectories of the 2024 YR4 asteroid to find that India is among the potential targets | X: @astroEdLu
New Delhi: Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence’s 2021 apocalyptic film Don’t Look Up has a 2.3 percent chance of becoming real. NASA’s Asteroid Watch has warned the world about a ‘city-killer’ asteroid named 2024 YR4, which has a 1 in 43 chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, and India might be one of the places it could hit, according to analysis by the US-based privately run Asteroid Institute.
“While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1 percent to a 2.3 percent chance on 22 December, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known,” NASA Asteroid Watch posted on X last week.
The potentially destructive asteroid was first detected by NASA-funded ‘Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System’ (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile on 27 December, 2024 and designated as ‘brightening’ as it approached Earth.
It is estimated to be between 40 metres and 100 metres wide, according to the European Space Agency. For context, this isn’t big enough to destroy the entire world, but as the name suggests, it could be a “city killer”. In 1908, a similar-sized asteroid struck a remote Siberian forest and caused devastation across 800 miles
What if 2024 YR4 collides with Earth?
Space agencies have assigned a Level 3 rating, out of 10, on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale—a tool used to categorise the impact hazard of asteroids, comets and other near-Earth objects.
The Level 3 rating estimates that the collision will cause “localised destruction” and not a catastrophic impact. This rating warrants attention by astronomers and public officials, if the expected encounter is less than a decade away.
Despite what Torino scale says, there are still levels of destruction an asteroid can cause based on where it strikes. For example, the 1908 asteroid impact would have caused much wider destruction had it hit a major city rather than a remote forest. A tool created by Purdue University scientists lets people assess the scale of destruction of any asteroid based on its size.
US-based B612 Asteroid Institute has mapped out multiple possible trajectories of the 2024 YR4 asteroid to find that India is among the potential targets | X: @astroEdLu
New Delhi: Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence’s 2021 apocalyptic film Don’t Look Up has a 2.3 percent chance of becoming real. NASA’s Asteroid Watch has warned the world about a ‘city-killer’ asteroid named 2024 YR4, which has a 1 in 43 chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, and India might be one of the places it could hit, according to analysis by the US-based privately run Asteroid Institute.
“While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1 percent to a 2.3 percent chance on 22 December, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known,” NASA Asteroid Watch posted on X last week.
The potentially destructive asteroid was first detected by NASA-funded ‘Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System’ (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile on 27 December, 2024 and designated as ‘brightening’ as it approached Earth.
It is estimated to be between 40 metres and 100 metres wide, according to the European Space Agency. For context, this isn’t big enough to destroy the entire world, but as the name suggests, it could be a “city killer”. In 1908, a similar-sized asteroid struck a remote Siberian forest and caused devastation across 800 miles
What if 2024 YR4 collides with Earth?
Space agencies have assigned a Level 3 rating, out of 10, on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale—a tool used to categorise the impact hazard of asteroids, comets and other near-Earth objects.
The Level 3 rating estimates that the collision will cause “localised destruction” and not a catastrophic impact. This rating warrants attention by astronomers and public officials, if the expected encounter is less than a decade away.
Despite what Torino scale says, there are still levels of destruction an asteroid can cause based on where it strikes. For example, the 1908 asteroid impact would have caused much wider destruction had it hit a major city rather than a remote forest. A tool created by Purdue University scientists lets people assess the scale of destruction of any asteroid based on its size.
