ERNESTO LITERALLY TAKES A SHIT ON PUERTO RICO

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Nigga forecasted to become a major

 

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion​

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Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive U.S. Watch/Warning Local Products Español: Aviso Publico Discusión

733
WTNT45 KNHC 140247
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Aircraft data, surface observations, and NWS radar images indicate
Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands around 00 UTC this evening.
The tropical cyclone remains asymmetric, as NOAA Tail Doppler Radar
data show the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall are generally
confined to the northern and eastern semicircles of the storm. Data
from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the central
pressure of Ernesto has fallen to around 998-999 mb, and an earlier
aircraft pass through the eastern part of the storm found peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 60 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 55 kt, which matches the latest Dvorak current
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The latest aircraft fixes and radar data show Ernesto has turned
northwestward (305/15 kt). Overnight, Ernesto will move away from
the Virgin Islands and pass to the northeast and north of Puerto
Rico. Then, Ernesto is expected to move northwestward to northward
during the next couple of days toward a break in the subtropical
ridge. By late week, the influence of a deep-layer trough over the
western Atlantic should cause Ernesto to turn north-northeastward,
although the cyclone is forecast to slow down a bit after the trough
passes to its north. There are no notable changes to the NHC track
forecast, with Ernesto forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Friday night into Saturday.

The radar structure of Ernesto indicates it has not yet solidified
an inner core. However, once this occurs, the atmospheric and
oceanic conditions appear conducive for significant strengthening
over the next few days. Most of the hurricane regional models and
statistical guidance show Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over
the western Atlantic late this week, and the global models
(particularly the GFS) show significant deepening of the low. Based
on the latest guidance trends, the NHC intensity forecast has been
raised slightly during the middle portion of the forecast period and
now shows Ernesto becoming a major hurricane on Friday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday, with
hurricane conditions possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and
Vieques.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto
Rico tonight through Wednesday.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.

4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach
the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 18.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Steinberg