Expectations for the next 6 months

[Seth Walsh]

USDCHF is dropping off. Will we see a much weaker Dollar? Will we see equities and cryptos boom? Are people speculating on lots of deep rate cuts in the US? USDCHF is such a classic G10 carry trade and all of a sudden we're seeing people bet that people will begin to start selling the Dollar (from my interpretation).

Selling a 5.45% rate currency to buy a -0.1% ish rate currency is non-intuitive. I know it's probably not happening at the moment but it seems weird that we're seeing reverse carry to this extent since the start of May.

Tagging IQ mogger @4ever

 

[eduardkoopman]

Will usa start to ease stuff?
Only reason to do so, is for Biden to re-election maxx.
People have the memory length of a fish anyways. So if sentiment is just good around the election election months, than people may re-elect the current guy. Oblivious to the upcoming nuking.

Maybe handouts and easing shit, are starting around the summer time

 

[Seth Walsh]

Will usa start to ease stuff?
Only reason to do so, is for Biden to re-election maxx.
People have the memory length of a fish anyways. So if sentiment is just good around the election election months, than people may re-elect the current guy. Oblivious to the upcoming nuking.

Maybe handouts and easing shit, are starting around the summer time

I mean I hope USA start cutting interest rates. It would help literally everyone and would influence a crypto rally imo.

 

[eduardkoopman]

I mean I hope USA start cutting interest rates. It would help literally everyone and would influence a crypto rally imo.

Yeah, for sure. Short term.
Long term, it might be an issue.

I personally think, 2 main reasons might start some rate cuts around summer in the usa.
1. War fundings/spendings are high atm.
2. Biden wants/needs to be re-elected, while Trump is more popular now it seems. So they might start doing stuff to change sentiment short term. Like dropping interest rates short term, some people can borrow more easily money for cope shit like an overpriced car. Which somehow makes people feel happier and more positive

 

[4ever]

View attachment 2895727

USDCHF is dropping off. Will we see a much weaker Dollar? Will we see equities and cryptos boom? Are people speculating on lots of deep rate cuts in the US? USDCHF is such a classic G10 carry trade and all of a sudden we're seeing people bet that people will begin to start selling the Dollar (from my interpretation).

Selling a 5.45% rate currency to buy a -0.1% ish rate currency is non-intuitive. I know it's probably not happening at the moment but it seems weird that we're seeing reverse carry to this extent since the start of May.

Tagging IQ mogger @4ever

Appreciate the compliment, FX isn't really my strong point but I'll try:
US job market was weaker than expected last week (Non farm payrolls). Also job numbers have been corrected to the downside after they've been published multiple times in the last months -> Assumption is now that fed will cut earlier -> Dxy down -> equities up.

In March the Swiss national bank cut rates from 1.75 to 1.5, so the chf showed some weakness against other currencies. I think its just market reflexivity/ forward looking market. Over the long term CHF will probably continue to climb against the USD.

 

[4ever]

Will usa start to ease stuff?
Only reason to do so, is for Biden to re-election maxx.
People have the memory length of a fish anyways. So if sentiment is just good around the election election months, than people may re-elect the current guy. Oblivious to the upcoming nuking.

Maybe handouts and easing shit, are starting around the summer time

Main reason to do so would be the extreme debt the US has. Inflate the debt away.

Powell said again in his recent speech that the election won't effect the feds decision making process. How true that is, idk.

Would be interesting to see historic data. Also interesting to see whether summer will really be slower for crypto / markets like it's been historically.