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Xangsane
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tropicalstormrisk.com
The current statistical models used to predict August-September MDR sea surface temperature and JulySeptember Caribbean trade wind speed anomaly has been built using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data, which we have found tends to have a low bias in sea surface temperature in the Atlantic. An alternative version of the models using ERA5 re-analysis data predicts much warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and much weaker Caribbean trade winds which results in a prediction for a hyper-active season with an ACE index around 200.
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