noodlelover
Kraken
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I have exited all my positions completely.
Here's my thread on Chainlink last month, saying it would go up.
looksmax.org
It more than doubled as did many other coins, and I've sold with a good over-all profit from the crypto market.
I'm brain dumping what I know about crypto, so don't tag me in any more crypto-related threads, or ask me any more questions. This is everything I know.
Moving Average Based Indicators:
Moving averages in theory help predict an asset's future, more accurately than randomly guessing. You can see the over-all trend of an asset with a moving average, and when it get's too over-heated (too far above the moving average), or too under-valued (too far below the moving average).
Moving averages work better when an asset's fundamental value isn't changing significantly, and the competitor landscape for the asset isn't changing significantly, as well as the over-all markets.
You can create many different indicators with moving averages, here is one such indicator you could put on your radar:
www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
Based solely on this indicator, investing below the green line is safer, and as the price gets closer and closer to the red line the risk increases. But, because markets get more efficient over-time, I wouldn't expect it to reach the red line. It could, but I wouldn't expect it.
Here's another indicator based on moving averages (A logarithmic growth curve technically but it's functionally like a moving average with a long time horizon):
www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
Based on that, blue would be a safe time to buy, and as you go up the colors, the risk increases. Again because the crypto market is becoming more efficient, don't expect it to get too far up the chart, and crypto-currencies may even enter a decline phase.
Some Thoughts on Some other Indicators:
Stock to Flow & Stock to Flow 2 - A garbage indicator backfit based on a narrative that doesn't apply, that has no predictive power.
Fear and Greed Index - A reflection of the price movement that has recently occurred, with little predictive power. While it might tend to go up after extreme fear, considering Fear and Greed Index on top of a moving average indicator is redundant and adding noise to signal, reducing signal.
Golden Ratio Multiplier - It's moving average based, which is a positive for it. The indicator itself admits this is the last chance that it might have predictive power, and that's if we don't consider that we've already touched the 2x potential bull high, which maybe we should.
Reserve Risk -
www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
Ok, so this one basically tracks what long term holders are doing relative to short term holders. It assumes long term holders are better able to predict the market. This may be true, but most long term holders still missed the last cycle top because they thought it was going to go up more.
But it's a good indicator to assess risk. The higher it is on that indicator, the higher the risk. Again, remember this market is getting more efficient, which means the price will stay closer and closer to the "safest buy zone" of most of these indicators. At least it would be reasonable to expect that, I can't predict the markets with a high degree of confidence or accuracy.
Some final thoughts on risk management and controlling for downside risks
To have long term growth you need to control for downside risks. This becomes progressively more important, the more wealth you accumulate because of the longer time it would take for you to re-accumulate all of that wealth if you suddenly lost a huge amount.
This is the main reason I have exited fully. Not because I don't think it will go up any more, I don't know, but because the downside risks weren't worth it for my life goals. I have enough to progress on with my life, and I'm not risking delaying that yet another four years.
Thoughts on the future of Crypto:
This is an industry that rewards initial innovation and marketing much more than sustained innovation and marketing. It attracts gamblers looking for quick profits so it's prone to bubbles, rug pulls, and deceptive scams.
Countries may create their own CBCDs. Smart contracts operating on CBCDs seems likely to me, as well as some DAOs, which could be thought of more as like a Smart contracts for many many people and/or Ai agents.
Weather the market declines or grows, it will likely continue to stabilize reducing risk somewhat but also profits. At the moment it is still very volatile. Anything that doubles in less than a month is quite volatile.
Meme coins are straight gambling and if you engage with them you deserve to loose all your money. But companies and groups of companies may regularly create their own coins in the future with rewards for using "Mcdonald's coins" for example.
We may someday see groups of countries collectively create their own shared currencies, and wind up having two dominant currencies shared by two different large groups of countries.
I also expect stock markets to create currencies so that you can for example, buy food with an index fund, without ever holding cash.
@User28823 @yex @RICHCELDOM @ey88 @poloralf @Mess
Here's my thread on Chainlink last month, saying it would go up.
Chain link about to explode
Look at this price chart. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/ Pump in the last crypto cycle (2021), decline and years of sideways accumulation. Looks like it's about to break out of it's accumulation pattern. Also there's an influx of whale investment. Fundamental value: It's...
looksmax.org
It more than doubled as did many other coins, and I've sold with a good over-all profit from the crypto market.
I'm brain dumping what I know about crypto, so don't tag me in any more crypto-related threads, or ask me any more questions. This is everything I know.
Moving Average Based Indicators:
Moving averages in theory help predict an asset's future, more accurately than randomly guessing. You can see the over-all trend of an asset with a moving average, and when it get's too over-heated (too far above the moving average), or too under-valued (too far below the moving average).
Moving averages work better when an asset's fundamental value isn't changing significantly, and the competitor landscape for the asset isn't changing significantly, as well as the over-all markets.
You can create many different indicators with moving averages, here is one such indicator you could put on your radar:
Bitcoin Investor Tool: 2-Year MA Multiplier | BM Pro
Live data chart of the Bitcoin Investor Tool: 2year MA multiplier. Simple-to-use long term $BTC investment tool using a 2yr moving average and a x5 multiple.
www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
Based solely on this indicator, investing below the green line is safer, and as the price gets closer and closer to the red line the risk increases. But, because markets get more efficient over-time, I wouldn't expect it to reach the red line. It could, but I wouldn't expect it.
Here's another indicator based on moving averages (A logarithmic growth curve technically but it's functionally like a moving average with a long time horizon):
Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart Indicator | BM Pro
Live chart of Bitcoin Rainbow chart with an explanation on how it works.
www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
Based on that, blue would be a safe time to buy, and as you go up the colors, the risk increases. Again because the crypto market is becoming more efficient, don't expect it to get too far up the chart, and crypto-currencies may even enter a decline phase.
Some Thoughts on Some other Indicators:
Stock to Flow & Stock to Flow 2 - A garbage indicator backfit based on a narrative that doesn't apply, that has no predictive power.
Fear and Greed Index - A reflection of the price movement that has recently occurred, with little predictive power. While it might tend to go up after extreme fear, considering Fear and Greed Index on top of a moving average indicator is redundant and adding noise to signal, reducing signal.
Golden Ratio Multiplier - It's moving average based, which is a positive for it. The indicator itself admits this is the last chance that it might have predictive power, and that's if we don't consider that we've already touched the 2x potential bull high, which maybe we should.
Reserve Risk -
Reserve Risk | BM Pro
Reserve Risk live chart visualises the confidence amongst long term bitcoin holders relative to the price of Bitcoin at a given moment in time.
www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
Ok, so this one basically tracks what long term holders are doing relative to short term holders. It assumes long term holders are better able to predict the market. This may be true, but most long term holders still missed the last cycle top because they thought it was going to go up more.
But it's a good indicator to assess risk. The higher it is on that indicator, the higher the risk. Again, remember this market is getting more efficient, which means the price will stay closer and closer to the "safest buy zone" of most of these indicators. At least it would be reasonable to expect that, I can't predict the markets with a high degree of confidence or accuracy.
Some final thoughts on risk management and controlling for downside risks
To have long term growth you need to control for downside risks. This becomes progressively more important, the more wealth you accumulate because of the longer time it would take for you to re-accumulate all of that wealth if you suddenly lost a huge amount.
This is the main reason I have exited fully. Not because I don't think it will go up any more, I don't know, but because the downside risks weren't worth it for my life goals. I have enough to progress on with my life, and I'm not risking delaying that yet another four years.
Thoughts on the future of Crypto:
This is an industry that rewards initial innovation and marketing much more than sustained innovation and marketing. It attracts gamblers looking for quick profits so it's prone to bubbles, rug pulls, and deceptive scams.
Countries may create their own CBCDs. Smart contracts operating on CBCDs seems likely to me, as well as some DAOs, which could be thought of more as like a Smart contracts for many many people and/or Ai agents.
Weather the market declines or grows, it will likely continue to stabilize reducing risk somewhat but also profits. At the moment it is still very volatile. Anything that doubles in less than a month is quite volatile.
Meme coins are straight gambling and if you engage with them you deserve to loose all your money. But companies and groups of companies may regularly create their own coins in the future with rewards for using "Mcdonald's coins" for example.
We may someday see groups of countries collectively create their own shared currencies, and wind up having two dominant currencies shared by two different large groups of countries.
I also expect stock markets to create currencies so that you can for example, buy food with an index fund, without ever holding cash.
@User28823 @yex @RICHCELDOM @ey88 @poloralf @Mess
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