it is not possible to predict future stock prices

[_MVP_]

is it possible to predict future stock prices

ChatGPT:​

Predicting future stock prices with certainty is not possible. However, there are methods to make informed predictions or estimates—but they always carry risk and uncertainty. Here’s a breakdown of why:

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Why Stock Prices Are Hard to Predict​

1. Market Efficiency: According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), all known information is already priced into stocks. So, consistently beating the market using public info is very difficult.
2. Randomness: Stock prices are influenced by random, unpredictable events—e.g., geopolitical crises, sudden economic shifts, or corporate scandals.
3. Human Behavior: Markets are driven by investor psychology, which is often irrational and hard to model accurately.

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What You Can Do​

Traders and analysts use a variety of methods to make educated guesses about future stock movements:

1. Fundamental Analysis​

• Looks at financial statements, company health, industry trends.
• Used by long-term investors (e.g., Warren Buffett).

2. Technical Analysis​

• Analyzes price charts and patterns, volume, and momentum.
• Used by traders looking at short- to medium-term price movements.

3. Quantitative Models & Machine Learning​

• Uses historical data, statistics, and algorithms.
• Can identify patterns, but past performance ≠ future results.
• Still sensitive to market regime changes and overfitting.

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Important Caveats​

• No model is 100% accurate.
• Many models work well until they don't—they may fail in unexpected market conditions.
• Black swan events (rare and impactful) can wipe out even the best strategies.

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Key Takeaway​

You can make probabilistic forecasts, not guarantees. The most successful investors manage risk, not just predictions.

 

[59H390]

 

[5'7" 3/4s]

water

if you want to be sucessful day trading you dont try to predict price, you try your best to follow it with systemic rules

 

[bourgeoizyzz]

yeah, but llms are gay af