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gai_saber
Iron
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Secular Cycles is a social cycle theory positing, at bottom, that large-scale complex societies undergo ongoing cyclical periods of high-instability and low-instability (political instability). For the U.S., the author posits this graph for the dynamics of instability:
The author suggests the two driving structural-demographic forces responsible are popular immiseration and intraelite conflict. Here are the corresponding trends (using proxies) for the aforementioned elements:
[ATTACH
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And finally, plotting the trends together, we see this pattern (Popular Well-being is low when Elite Overproduction is high and vice-versa):
It is suggested by this model that the United States is currently at a point of peak instability -- in virtue of all going on, perhaps there is some merit to to this theory.
Now we know that celibacy, at least for males, is on the rise. Is is possible that an increase in celibacy is associated with political instability? It seems asinine, but maybe it is not so far-fetched.
For a more in-depth looks of this theory:
And for more related stuff:
The author suggests the two driving structural-demographic forces responsible are popular immiseration and intraelite conflict. Here are the corresponding trends (using proxies) for the aforementioned elements:
And finally, plotting the trends together, we see this pattern (Popular Well-being is low when Elite Overproduction is high and vice-versa):
It is suggested by this model that the United States is currently at a point of peak instability -- in virtue of all going on, perhaps there is some merit to to this theory.
Now we know that celibacy, at least for males, is on the rise. Is is possible that an increase in celibacy is associated with political instability? It seems asinine, but maybe it is not so far-fetched.
For a more in-depth looks of this theory:
Age of Discord II
The Impending Crisis Something happened in the United States during the 1970s. According to a number of indicators, well-being of the majority of Americans, which had been growing for many decades,…
peterturchin.com
And for more related stuff:
Peter Turchin
peterturchin.com
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