got.daim
ᛋᛋ 𝕭𝖑𝖊𝖘𝖘𝖊𝖉 𝕭𝖞 𝕬𝖓𝖆 ᛋᛋ
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Now, I know that most of you are aware of what happened in Syria in December, Last year. --- I am going to tell you why this outcome was the result, And why it happened, And I will also tell you on how Assad could possibly come back in the future.
1. Assad's Allies preoccupied with other conflicts:
Now, Assad's main-backers as you may know were Russia and Iran. Well, Two years prior to the end of Assad's regime, Russia had caught itself in a war with it's neighbor, Ukraine. --- The 'Special Operation' Mission, Initiated by Putin, Was aimed to only be a couple of months to a year-long; Well, Quite long and horrible. Leading to the obliteration of Russia's Army, Economy, And supplies. --- Russia had also had to withdraw forces and support for Assad's regime, partly due to this, Aswell as having to focus Russian-forces on the War-effort in Ukraine. Leaving Assad's regime weakened and with less support and backing then it had with Russia and Iran's hands being free, In 2015. --- Now, Mentioning Iran, Let's get to that part. On October 7th, 2023, The Palestinian Islamist group, Hamas, Had launched several terror-attacks into Israel, Many of them successful, And leading to the death of over 1,000 Israelis; In Israel's response, This started a war. Which us ongoing, As of now. --- Iran had stepped in to be one of the biggest suppliers and supporters of Hamas. And as such, Started redirecting its effort and support to Palestinian, And later Lebanese groups in their fight against Israel. Leading to less support and backing for the Assad regime, It's main backer and strength over the rebels.
2. The general regional and global stability in the 2010's, And the opposite in the 2020's:
Compared to the scenes and fighting during the Syrian Civil-war, In 2015, Assad's Allies, And enemies were in A general calm state; And had Mostly focused their fighting, supplies, troops, arms etc etc to the War-effort in Syria. --- Unlike the Chaotic 2020's, Where Assad's main-backers, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah etc etc were preoccupied with fighting with Israel and Ukraine. --- Giving less attention and backing for the war-effort in Syria. --- Plus, It had seemed that the Civil-war had practically came to an end. With less and less fighting by 2020, Where there was practically no war and just occasional village-skirmishes between Governmental and Opposition forces. By 2023 the Gulf-Arabs had even welcomed Assad back into the Arab-league, And dropped support for the rebels, Seeing this --- Assad's backers had practically thought that the war was over, And won for them. --- And, To be fair, It did seem that the war had gone in their favor. Little did the know this thinking and attitude would lead to their ultimate defeat, In the end. I guess they should've listened too, and practiced the age-old saying of "Never count your chickens before they hatch".
Assad's regional Allies in A bad-state, Abandoning him, And his enemies gaining power:
By the time of the Assad regime's short-fall, There were several factors building-up who leading to the end of his regime. --- Hezbollah, One of Assad's main-backers, Was very busy with Israel, And couldn't give any aid to Assad in his dire hour. --- Israel (one of Assad's rivals) was sort of gaining the upper-hand in some of their operations; Though, Not successful in all of their goals. Russia was *VERY* busy with Ukraine and couldn't provide much help to Assad in his dire-hour when he most needed it. One of the other Major factors leading to this result, Was the incompetency and laziness with fighting and defending their territories. One of the major rebel strongholds, Alleppo, Wasn't under-attack by Assad, Hezbollah, or Russia. And Turkey was providing major-assitance and supplies to them, Leading to their strengthening. --- Due to this, Around late-november, The Sunni Islamist Group Hay'at Tarir Al-Sham had lead a major-offensive taking Idlib and Homs within the matter and time of days, Taking Assad's forces by surprise, And Off-gaurd, And without any support nor strength, They just fell within days. Disintegrating into dust instantly. --- After these offensives, Damascus was taken by Opposition-forces in December 8th, 2024. --- A day that will forever live in infamy for some, And hope and happiness for others.
Now, You may ask, How could Assad come back? Well, I'll tell you on to how:
2. Assad's Allies strengthening, And Syria's ever-growing instability and conflict
Russia has been winning It's war with Ukraine, Hamas and Hezbollah, Along with their Backers Iran, Have been successful in standing-against Israel, Pushing them out and gaining the World's sympathy by gaining attention to their cause. --- Trump has made it clear that he would like the wars between Ukraine and Russia, Aswell as Hamas and Israel to stop. --- He has kept urging and is attempting to force a peace-deal between Russia and Ukraine, Along with Israel and Hamas, Where he has even gone against Israel and has held direct-negotiations with Iran and Hamas. --- Another thing to add, Is that, Syria's new government is unstable and doesn't have that much power. It's trying to impose it, But failing at this goal. --- There is still fighting between Shia and Alawite militias, backed by Hezbollah and Iran, Against HTS and New government forces. And the fighting is quite heavy, aswell. Some HTS fighters got into a border-clash with Hezbollah forces, and three of their guys were stoned to death. I should also mention fighting between HTS/Transitional-govermental forces and the Kurds. --- Also, There is profound infighting between rebels groups, Fighting for control and power, still. We also saw this demonstrated during the civil-war. --- What I can see, If Assad comes back to power is Two factors:
I can actually see this happening, But not in the Near-future. I definitely think Syria's current government sooner-or-later will fall due to a multitude of factors. --- All Assad has to do is play the Waiting game and time shit perfectly. As well as let the government fall to, And promote some of their ills. A lot of Syrians, In the future, May be sick with their Government's complicity with just allowing Israel to gobble-up land in the Golan-heights and around that range, Along with the sick repression and tyranny of the current government lead by a former al-Qaeda agent. --- Do you think they are going to treat their citizens well? Hell no. --- Syrians will be sick just like they did in 2011, And will thow an uprising. Where Assad could attempt a coup. Just like how Napoleon did. Both were exhiled from their nations, And were both in A similar situation. --- The Syrians, Just like the French, After realising their current new-government is shit, May welcome Assad back in open arms. --- Which they could, Seeing that Assad is alive. Unlike Saddam and Ghaddafi.
>but the majority of Syrians don't like Assad
So did the majority Of Iraqis, With Saddam. But years later, realising their new 'government' (Iranian and American puppet-state, with pockets of Brown terrorists killing each other for no reason, and crime everywhere, literal failed-state, unlike saddam's rule) Is shit, And they literally cry and wish Saddam was back. --- Same with Ghaddafi in Libya.
>But the majority of Syrians are Sunni, and are not appeased by Shia-rule
The same was true with Iraq. But with the religions being switched. --- Majority of Iraqis were Shia, Yet Saddam and his cabinet were predominantly Sunni. And Iraqis seeing their new-state, as of now, BEG for and wish for Saddam to be back. --- Syria will probably Become a Turkish, American, and Israeli puppet-state with horrible Human-rights violations and brutality; Like we see, as of now. --- It's a good thing that Assad is still alive, Be cause when the Syrians inevitably regret everything, They can take him back. --- Unlike the Libyans or Iraqis.
Anyways, Give me your thoughts and info on this. Discuss. --- Also, Before I go, I'll leave you with this to boost your morale/hope:
1. Assad's Allies preoccupied with other conflicts:
Now, Assad's main-backers as you may know were Russia and Iran. Well, Two years prior to the end of Assad's regime, Russia had caught itself in a war with it's neighbor, Ukraine. --- The 'Special Operation' Mission, Initiated by Putin, Was aimed to only be a couple of months to a year-long; Well, Quite long and horrible. Leading to the obliteration of Russia's Army, Economy, And supplies. --- Russia had also had to withdraw forces and support for Assad's regime, partly due to this, Aswell as having to focus Russian-forces on the War-effort in Ukraine. Leaving Assad's regime weakened and with less support and backing then it had with Russia and Iran's hands being free, In 2015. --- Now, Mentioning Iran, Let's get to that part. On October 7th, 2023, The Palestinian Islamist group, Hamas, Had launched several terror-attacks into Israel, Many of them successful, And leading to the death of over 1,000 Israelis; In Israel's response, This started a war. Which us ongoing, As of now. --- Iran had stepped in to be one of the biggest suppliers and supporters of Hamas. And as such, Started redirecting its effort and support to Palestinian, And later Lebanese groups in their fight against Israel. Leading to less support and backing for the Assad regime, It's main backer and strength over the rebels.
2. The general regional and global stability in the 2010's, And the opposite in the 2020's:
Compared to the scenes and fighting during the Syrian Civil-war, In 2015, Assad's Allies, And enemies were in A general calm state; And had Mostly focused their fighting, supplies, troops, arms etc etc to the War-effort in Syria. --- Unlike the Chaotic 2020's, Where Assad's main-backers, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah etc etc were preoccupied with fighting with Israel and Ukraine. --- Giving less attention and backing for the war-effort in Syria. --- Plus, It had seemed that the Civil-war had practically came to an end. With less and less fighting by 2020, Where there was practically no war and just occasional village-skirmishes between Governmental and Opposition forces. By 2023 the Gulf-Arabs had even welcomed Assad back into the Arab-league, And dropped support for the rebels, Seeing this --- Assad's backers had practically thought that the war was over, And won for them. --- And, To be fair, It did seem that the war had gone in their favor. Little did the know this thinking and attitude would lead to their ultimate defeat, In the end. I guess they should've listened too, and practiced the age-old saying of "Never count your chickens before they hatch".
Assad's regional Allies in A bad-state, Abandoning him, And his enemies gaining power:
By the time of the Assad regime's short-fall, There were several factors building-up who leading to the end of his regime. --- Hezbollah, One of Assad's main-backers, Was very busy with Israel, And couldn't give any aid to Assad in his dire hour. --- Israel (one of Assad's rivals) was sort of gaining the upper-hand in some of their operations; Though, Not successful in all of their goals. Russia was *VERY* busy with Ukraine and couldn't provide much help to Assad in his dire-hour when he most needed it. One of the other Major factors leading to this result, Was the incompetency and laziness with fighting and defending their territories. One of the major rebel strongholds, Alleppo, Wasn't under-attack by Assad, Hezbollah, or Russia. And Turkey was providing major-assitance and supplies to them, Leading to their strengthening. --- Due to this, Around late-november, The Sunni Islamist Group Hay'at Tarir Al-Sham had lead a major-offensive taking Idlib and Homs within the matter and time of days, Taking Assad's forces by surprise, And Off-gaurd, And without any support nor strength, They just fell within days. Disintegrating into dust instantly. --- After these offensives, Damascus was taken by Opposition-forces in December 8th, 2024. --- A day that will forever live in infamy for some, And hope and happiness for others.
Now, You may ask, How could Assad come back? Well, I'll tell you on to how:
- Change in U.S. Administration:
2. Assad's Allies strengthening, And Syria's ever-growing instability and conflict
Russia has been winning It's war with Ukraine, Hamas and Hezbollah, Along with their Backers Iran, Have been successful in standing-against Israel, Pushing them out and gaining the World's sympathy by gaining attention to their cause. --- Trump has made it clear that he would like the wars between Ukraine and Russia, Aswell as Hamas and Israel to stop. --- He has kept urging and is attempting to force a peace-deal between Russia and Ukraine, Along with Israel and Hamas, Where he has even gone against Israel and has held direct-negotiations with Iran and Hamas. --- Another thing to add, Is that, Syria's new government is unstable and doesn't have that much power. It's trying to impose it, But failing at this goal. --- There is still fighting between Shia and Alawite militias, backed by Hezbollah and Iran, Against HTS and New government forces. And the fighting is quite heavy, aswell. Some HTS fighters got into a border-clash with Hezbollah forces, and three of their guys were stoned to death. I should also mention fighting between HTS/Transitional-govermental forces and the Kurds. --- Also, There is profound infighting between rebels groups, Fighting for control and power, still. We also saw this demonstrated during the civil-war. --- What I can see, If Assad comes back to power is Two factors:
- Syria's unstable government falling due to multiple-pressures, both internal and external
- Strong Russian and/or Iranian backing in re-attempting a power-grab at a vulnerable point
I can actually see this happening, But not in the Near-future. I definitely think Syria's current government sooner-or-later will fall due to a multitude of factors. --- All Assad has to do is play the Waiting game and time shit perfectly. As well as let the government fall to, And promote some of their ills. A lot of Syrians, In the future, May be sick with their Government's complicity with just allowing Israel to gobble-up land in the Golan-heights and around that range, Along with the sick repression and tyranny of the current government lead by a former al-Qaeda agent. --- Do you think they are going to treat their citizens well? Hell no. --- Syrians will be sick just like they did in 2011, And will thow an uprising. Where Assad could attempt a coup. Just like how Napoleon did. Both were exhiled from their nations, And were both in A similar situation. --- The Syrians, Just like the French, After realising their current new-government is shit, May welcome Assad back in open arms. --- Which they could, Seeing that Assad is alive. Unlike Saddam and Ghaddafi.
>but the majority of Syrians don't like Assad
So did the majority Of Iraqis, With Saddam. But years later, realising their new 'government' (Iranian and American puppet-state, with pockets of Brown terrorists killing each other for no reason, and crime everywhere, literal failed-state, unlike saddam's rule) Is shit, And they literally cry and wish Saddam was back. --- Same with Ghaddafi in Libya.
>But the majority of Syrians are Sunni, and are not appeased by Shia-rule
The same was true with Iraq. But with the religions being switched. --- Majority of Iraqis were Shia, Yet Saddam and his cabinet were predominantly Sunni. And Iraqis seeing their new-state, as of now, BEG for and wish for Saddam to be back. --- Syria will probably Become a Turkish, American, and Israeli puppet-state with horrible Human-rights violations and brutality; Like we see, as of now. --- It's a good thing that Assad is still alive, Be cause when the Syrians inevitably regret everything, They can take him back. --- Unlike the Libyans or Iraqis.
Anyways, Give me your thoughts and info on this. Discuss. --- Also, Before I go, I'll leave you with this to boost your morale/hope:
