human304
Kraken
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- Sep 25, 2022
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Anyone think its just bullshit and the probability is 50/50
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nope. the host opening the door doesn't have any validity now.no, the math is true it just takes a bit to conceptualize
Basically, when you chose the first door theres a 2/3 chance the car was behind the other two doors. The host opening one of the doors dosent change this fact. Thus, you'll have a 2/3 probability of winning if you switch. If you stay its only 1/3
Probability is n abstract conceptnope. the host opening the door doesn't have any validity now.
cause now it's not a door problem anymore, it becomes a coin toss problem.
the 66.6% probability is just an assumption.
the actual probability is 50/50
Your Opening choice has no link to it now.
still but in no way its gonna be 66.6%.Probability is n abstract concept
Instead of 3 let’s keep 6 doors w only one having the car , so first when I choose it’s 1/6, if 2 doors a opened to reveal goats then probability of switching would increase odds to 1/4 . The monty hall problem is confusing because they keep it very close to each other like 1/3 and 2/3Probability is n abstract concept
That's incorrect, switching doors would give you 5/18 probabilityInstead of 3 let’s keep 6 doors w only one having the car , so first when I choose it’s 1/6, if 2 doors a opened to reveal goats then probability of switching would increase odds to 1/4 . The monty hall problem is confusing because they keep it very close to each other like 1/3 and 2/3
You Pick | Prize Door | Don’t Switch | Switch |
1 | 1 | Win | Lose |
1 | 2 | Lose | Win |
1 | 3 | Lose | Win |
2 | 1 | Lose | Win |
2 | 2 | Win | Lose |
2 | 3 | Lose | Win |
3 | 1 | Lose | Win |
3 | 2 | Lose | Win |
3 | 3 | Win | Lose |
3 Wins (33%) | 6 Wins (66%) |
Youre conflating probability with chance. For example. lets say the best soccer team, team A, plays the worst soccer team, team B. There is a 50/50 chance team A will win because those are the only two outcomes. However, because of external factors, the expected probability for team A winning is higher than .5nope. the host opening the door doesn't have any validity now.
cause now it's not a door problem anymore, it becomes a coin toss problem.
the 66.6% probability is just an assumption.
the actual probability is 50/50
Your Opening choice has no link to it now.