Anybody has investing plans following the coming CPI report?

[LongForgotten]

Expected percentage change is 3.4%.

 

[gooner23]

they have been trading flat for a long time only 0.5% swings for the last few times but usually a short sell off after for as long as i could remember

 

[perpetuallytired]

Expected percentage change is 3.4%.

Not really. Investing based off predicting massive macroeconomic changes is probably not a good thing as a sole trader. Thousands/10000's of thousands of extremely educated economists try to predict the market and get it wrong.

It's better to focus on niche areas where you can learn the market backwards and then adjust your strategy to macroeconomic conditions as they happen. Ideally focus on areas that funds/banks will not be able to understand well.

I have my own niche I focus on, and inflation does play a role, but it's a lot more complicated.

 

[gooner23]

i honestly think it might be the cpi data or the next 2 that will probably shift the market heavily we have been sitting on weary rates for a long time last time i posted about it was 1-2 months ago

FOMC AND JPOW SOON

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar The markets have been trading flat only reacting to crypto and ai for the past week even with CPI and PPI numbers. Most likely will trade flat but react +-.5-1% before and after JPOW and FOMC since interest rate cuts are no where near and may...

looksmax.org

 

[AscensionMan98]

Expected percentage change is 3.4%.

I did a few trades on those days, and a few times yielded excellent gains, in the few thousand % on options. Other times not much happened so lost all the option

I want to play Nvidia on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. If CPI comes in hot along with NVIDIA doing the 1 for 10 split, which woudl be a sell the news type event after Monday, I woudl want to buy some puts 10% out of the money.
IV would decrease also since the hyped up event is done. I think their would be a large price move down due to it selling off after the stock split. Check the charts for amazon and apple. Both had 10%+ sell offs within a week to 2 weeks.

I also think inflation will be hot, so thus the fed meeting woudl be bearish ( but don't go crazy and think we woudl see some like 3% down move in a day ). Markets likely will go up Monday and Tuesday,and then Wednesday Thursday Friday down if inflation is hot , as the fed meeting will likely say rate cut delay, so the following month would be bearish till the next cpi report is good

The ECB already did a rate cut

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/business/european-central-bank-interest-rates.html

So its a possibility usa will do so in a month or two.

If the inflation is hot, fed reaction will be bearish, but the IV is gonna be high on the index. I woudl recommend individual stocks. Semiconductor stocks tend to move 2-3x the indexes down and up. So shit like AMD or Nvidia might be reasonable tickers to play.

ARM is a British semincoductor manufacturing company making AI chips. That woudl work

SMCI ( super micro computer ) is company that builds the servers that connect many NVDA chips together, and has risen as a result of this. This moves like twice as much as Nvidia does in some cases.That would see like a 15% drop if Nvidia drops 10%

So these are what I keep my eye on

I woudl say my plan woudl be probably like a 3 week play on SMCI, wait till it hits like 800, then do a short 15% otm , and hopefully it hits like 600. Then their buy some calls at 1100 expiring January 2025, it woudl be a couple grand like 1.5-2k based on the option calculators I checked, but if it hits 2000 by that , thats a 90k gain from like 2k, not bad tbh.

To hedge my self I would do a long calls on Bank stocks, as well as SMCI . Bank stocks are quiet volatile sometimes on inflation days , as a good inflation report means that the feds can cut rates, and bank stocks have bene hurt by higher rate as it ruins their portfolios as their in bonds which have dropped a lot in value with all the rate hikes, because higher interest rate= reduced bond value, so its a inverse relationship

Car stocks like Ford and GM hav also been volatile CPI and Fed days.

Bitcoin recently has also moved on CPI and Fed days. So you have a lot of ways to navigate this