Discussion about Al warfare between US and China

Who wins the Al race by 2030?


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Jason Voorhees

Jason Voorhees

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I've made many threads about Google's insane return with Gemini 3, the development of GPT-5, Banana Image Pro now. The investments , the demand supply chain issues and future of AI but one important topic that needs more discussion let's look at the China angle.




I've passively been reading about this china news since a few years now but I've never actively followed the developments and have come back from my research so this is the deal. While the US chases AGI moonshots, Beijing's playing a smarter, scrappier game in the shadows of this tech arms race. So this is how it goes

China's not betting the farm on raw compute like Silicon Valley. Silicon valley has the deep pockets and unlimited money of the VCs so they can't compete with them on that front but they're all in on applied Al that's cheap, scalable, and woven into everything from factories to farms.




With an $8.4B national Al fund and local gov boosts, which is another stark difference. The AI development is mostly spear headed by trillion dollar companies in the private sector in the US while in China's case it is all state funded so they get exactly what they want and have much tighter control over the entire supply chain.

They're pushing "Al+" to supercharge all industries by 2030. But this is fundamentally different from the one you are thinking about. In this case
think open source models for quick exports and inference tuned data centers dodging US chip bans.





Huawei's leading alliances to build a domestic tech stack, slashing reliance on American hardware. It's pracgial war. Automate manufacturing drones and munitions at Foxconn scale, while Americans optimize McKinsey consultants


But here's where it gets even more interesting. The military angle and weaponizing of AI. There's been heavy push by the Chinese government for military use of AI and PLA's embedding Al for hyper fast battlefield decisions, adversary prediction, and counter-Al warfare drills where troops spoof enemy sensors with decoys.



Just a few months back china linked hackers just unleashed autonomous Al agents for espionage that hits on 30+ US targets probing critical infrastructure.


1000129348


DeepSeek's r1 drop in January 2025 was revolutionary at its time and shook the narratives in AI world about China being much behind in deep reasoning. American AI firms have taken over deepseek since then but the very fact that they were able to establish a lead at all in the first place is an indication hinting Beijing has the capabilities to leapfrog again with less infra spend. This has started a sort of cold AI war between China and the US

1000129346



TLDR
China's entire strategy is not to win the race for the smartest machine but to win the race for the most used machine. While Silicon Valley is fixated on the singularity chasing AGI capabilities that may never come or is decades away Beijing is effectively weaponizing AI now. And trying to beat Americans in what they do best. Supply chain logistics
 
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@BigBallsLarry @TechnoBoss @Insomnia @imontheloose
 
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I've made many threads about Google's insane return with Gemini 3, the development of GPT-5, Banana Image Pro now. The investments , the demand supply chain issues and future of AI but one important topic that needs more discussion let's look at the China angle.




I've come back from my research and While the US chases AGI moonshots, Beijing's playing a smarter, scrappier game in the shadows of this tech arms race. So this is how it goes

China's not betting the farm on raw compute like Silicon Valley. Silicon valley has the deep pockets and money for it but they're all in on applied Al that's cheap, scalable, and woven into everything from factories to farms.




With an $8.4B national Al fund and local gov boosts, which is another stark difference. The AI development is mostly spear headed by trillion dollar companies in the private sector while in China's case it is all state funded so they get exactly what they want and have much tighter control over the supply chain logistics.

They're pushing "Al+" to supercharge industries by 2030. But this is fundamentally different from the one you are thinking about. In this case
think open source models for quick exports and inference tuned data centers dodging US chip bans.





Huawei's leading alliances to build a domestic tech stack, slashing reliance on American hardware. It's pragmatic war. Automate manufacturing drones and munitions at Foxconn scale, while Americans optimize McKinsey consultants


But here's where it gets even more interesting. The military angle and weaponizing of AI. There's been heavy push by the Chinese government for military use of AI and PLA's embedding Al for hyper fast battlefield decisions, adversary prediction, and counter-Al warfare drills where troops spoof enemy sensors with decoys.



Just a few months back china linked hackers just unleashed autonomous Al agents for espionage that hits on 30+ US targets probing critical infrastructure.


View attachment 4399542

DeepSeek's r1 drop in January 2025 was revolutionary as it shook the narratives in AI world. American AI firms have taken over deepseek but the very fact that they were able to overcome all this in the first place is an indication that hinting Beijing has the capabilities to leapfrog again with less infra spend. This is started a sort of cold AI war between China and the US

View attachment 4399517


TLDR
China's entire strategy is not to win the race for the smartest machine but to win the race for the most used machine. While Silicon Valley is fixated on the singularity chasing AGI capabilities that may never come or is decades away Beijing is effectively weaponizing AI now. And trying to beat Americans in what they do best. Supply chain logistics

My prediction is - USA will completely dominate for a few years untill eventually they hit a hard stop (for one reason or another) and china catches up, they might still battle or stand toe in toe after that.

Who knows, maybe they'll join forces to stop AI from destroying humanity or something :ogre:
 
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@Mogs Me @Corleone @Orka @Netanyahu
 
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I've made many threads about Google's insane return with Gemini 3, the development of GPT-5, Banana Image Pro now. The investments , the demand supply chain issues and future of AI but one important topic that needs more discussion let's look at the China angle.




I've passively been reading about this news as I have since a few years now but I've never actively followed the developments and have come back from my research so this is the deal. While the US chases AGI moonshots, Beijing's playing a smarter, scrappier game in the shadows of this tech arms race. So this is how it goes

China's not betting the farm on raw compute like Silicon Valley. Silicon valley has the deep pockets and money for it but they're all in on applied Al that's cheap, scalable, and woven into everything from factories to farms.




With an $8.4B national Al fund and local gov boosts, which is another stark difference. The AI development is mostly spear headed by trillion dollar companies in the private sector in the US while in China's case it is all state funded so they get exactly what they want and have much tighter control over the entire supply chain.

They're pushing "Al+" to supercharge all industries by 2030. But this is fundamentally different from the one you are thinking about. In this case
think open source models for quick exports and inference tuned data centers dodging US chip bans.





Huawei's leading alliances to build a domestic tech stack, slashing reliance on American hardware. It's pracgial war. Automate manufacturing drones and munitions at Foxconn scale, while Americans optimize McKinsey consultants


But here's where it gets even more interesting. The military angle and weaponizing of AI. There's been heavy push by the Chinese government for military use of AI and PLA's embedding Al for hyper fast battlefield decisions, adversary prediction, and counter-Al warfare drills where troops spoof enemy sensors with decoys.



Just a few months back china linked hackers just unleashed autonomous Al agents for espionage that hits on 30+ US targets probing critical infrastructure.


View attachment 4399542

DeepSeek's r1 drop in January 2025 was revolutionary at its time and shook the narratives in AI world about China being much behind in deep reasoning. American AI firms have taken over deepseek since then but the very fact that they were able to establish a lead at all in the first place is an indication hinting Beijing has the capabilities to leapfrog again with less infra spend. This has started a sort of cold AI war between China and the US

View attachment 4399517


TLDR
China's entire strategy is not to win the race for the smartest machine but to win the race for the most used machine. While Silicon Valley is fixated on the singularity chasing AGI capabilities that may never come or is decades away Beijing is effectively weaponizing AI now. And trying to beat Americans in what they do best. Supply chain logistics

Deepseek is open source and you can self host it, chatgpt and other american shit relies on tax payer funding and blackrock to keep aflorat they are losing billions despite that
 
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is agi really a thing?
 
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@BigBallsLarry @TechnoBoss @Insomnia @imontheloose
No way to tell, just don’t put a Jew chip in my head that makes me swear allegiance to Israel every time I wake up n I’ll be fine
 
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Deepseek is open source and you can self host it, chatgpt and other american shit relies on tax payer funding and blackrock to keep aflorat they are losing billions despite that
That's exactly the point. You use it locally via Ollama or Hugging Face in under an hour on decent hardware no API keys or subscriptions required. That's the scrappy Chinese edge. Smart algo over infrastructure bloat, letting devs self host without begging VCs for scraps.
 
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@Swarthy Knight
 
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Don't particularly care. But I think US will win solely due to the fact that their engineers are Dravidian bvlls :feelshmm:
 
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@FaceandBBC @gymceltard @Lefty Rankin @CorinthianLOX
 
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@SplashJuice @Jatt @iblamechico
 
When will Ai suck my dick rhough
 
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@Glorious King @taai @User28823
 
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Going with China. I mean, they literally have spyware on all of our asses lmao.
 
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None will dominate. There will be the American products and the Chinese alternatives, consumers will use both most likely, it's not like buying a car or a phone where you usually use one at a time.
 
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Don't particularly care. But I think US will win solely due to the fact that their engineers are Dravidian bvlls :feelshmm:

Disrespecting the Chinese government I hear…

IMG 4276
 
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I've heard a lot of opinions on it and sure even if the US can keep pulling ahead early, I don't think there will be a definitive "winner". So I expect China to build up their momentum and whatnot until they get to an equal level and then I expect a continuous clash of equal power just keeping each other in check.

So basically just competing on relatively equal terms
 
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NVIDIA Ceo said that China was a whole generation behind. I have no doubt Deepseek was just stolen from America sent to China and quickly refurbished. Then, a few months later, he said that Nvidia needs govt funding insurance because of muh threat of China :ROFLMAO:
 
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It's astounding to me someone your age can be this ignorant and foolish. Like seriously you can't be believing in the shit you say. You must either me insanely foolish or your entire persona has to be a larp.
NVIDIA Ceo said that China was a whole generation behind. I have no doubt Deepseek was just stolen from America sent to China and quickly refurbished. Then, a few months later, he said that Nvidia needs govt funding insurance because of muh threat of China :ROFLMAO:
 
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@savage21 @mrdouchebag @EthiopianMaxxer
 
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I've made many threads about Google's insane return with Gemini 3, the development of GPT-5, Banana Image Pro now. The investments , the demand supply chain issues and future of AI but one important topic that needs more discussion let's look at the China angle.




I've passively been reading about this china news since a few years now but I've never actively followed the developments and have come back from my research so this is the deal. While the US chases AGI moonshots, Beijing's playing a smarter, scrappier game in the shadows of this tech arms race. So this is how it goes

China's not betting the farm on raw compute like Silicon Valley. Silicon valley has the deep pockets and unlimited money of the VCs so they can't compete with them on that front but they're all in on applied Al that's cheap, scalable, and woven into everything from factories to farms.




With an $8.4B national Al fund and local gov boosts, which is another stark difference. The AI development is mostly spear headed by trillion dollar companies in the private sector in the US while in China's case it is all state funded so they get exactly what they want and have much tighter control over the entire supply chain.

They're pushing "Al+" to supercharge all industries by 2030. But this is fundamentally different from the one you are thinking about. In this case
think open source models for quick exports and inference tuned data centers dodging US chip bans.





Huawei's leading alliances to build a domestic tech stack, slashing reliance on American hardware. It's pracgial war. Automate manufacturing drones and munitions at Foxconn scale, while Americans optimize McKinsey consultants


But here's where it gets even more interesting. The military angle and weaponizing of AI. There's been heavy push by the Chinese government for military use of AI and PLA's embedding Al for hyper fast battlefield decisions, adversary prediction, and counter-Al warfare drills where troops spoof enemy sensors with decoys.



Just a few months back china linked hackers just unleashed autonomous Al agents for espionage that hits on 30+ US targets probing critical infrastructure.


View attachment 4399542

DeepSeek's r1 drop in January 2025 was revolutionary at its time and shook the narratives in AI world about China being much behind in deep reasoning. American AI firms have taken over deepseek since then but the very fact that they were able to establish a lead at all in the first place is an indication hinting Beijing has the capabilities to leapfrog again with less infra spend. This has started a sort of cold AI war between China and the US

View attachment 4399517


TLDR
China's entire strategy is not to win the race for the smartest machine but to win the race for the most used machine. While Silicon Valley is fixated on the singularity chasing AGI capabilities that may never come or is decades away Beijing is effectively weaponizing AI now. And trying to beat Americans in what they do best. Supply chain logistics

I think US will win tbh.

I want to see more about this AI in military. Seems interesting. Wonder how they would incorporate it.
 
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It's extremely brutal how efficient China's authoritarian system is.

Meanwhile America has a literal monkey in Donald Trump and his whole jester clown show administration that spends more time attacking 60% of the country and posting gay internet memes instead of focusing on real issues like the Chinese communist party.

America is genuinely fucked because democracy allows the lowest IQ racist white redneck retards to vote and put retards like Trump in power who in turn destroy the nation from the inside.

Like, look how much those uneducated white racist inbred Trump voters pollute twitter with their low IQ slop, blaming H1B immigrants is a key example. Also they blame low class Mexican laborer's who pick fruit in the fields and do all the construction. China will win the AI race.
 
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I've made many threads about Google's insane return with Gemini 3, the development of GPT-5, Banana Image Pro now. The investments , the demand supply chain issues and future of AI but one important topic that needs more discussion let's look at the China angle.




I've passively been reading about this china news since a few years now but I've never actively followed the developments and have come back from my research so this is the deal. While the US chases AGI moonshots, Beijing's playing a smarter, scrappier game in the shadows of this tech arms race. So this is how it goes

China's not betting the farm on raw compute like Silicon Valley. Silicon valley has the deep pockets and unlimited money of the VCs so they can't compete with them on that front but they're all in on applied Al that's cheap, scalable, and woven into everything from factories to farms.




With an $8.4B national Al fund and local gov boosts, which is another stark difference. The AI development is mostly spear headed by trillion dollar companies in the private sector in the US while in China's case it is all state funded so they get exactly what they want and have much tighter control over the entire supply chain.

They're pushing "Al+" to supercharge all industries by 2030. But this is fundamentally different from the one you are thinking about. In this case
think open source models for quick exports and inference tuned data centers dodging US chip bans.





Huawei's leading alliances to build a domestic tech stack, slashing reliance on American hardware. It's pracgial war. Automate manufacturing drones and munitions at Foxconn scale, while Americans optimize McKinsey consultants


But here's where it gets even more interesting. The military angle and weaponizing of AI. There's been heavy push by the Chinese government for military use of AI and PLA's embedding Al for hyper fast battlefield decisions, adversary prediction, and counter-Al warfare drills where troops spoof enemy sensors with decoys.



Just a few months back china linked hackers just unleashed autonomous Al agents for espionage that hits on 30+ US targets probing critical infrastructure.


View attachment 4399542

DeepSeek's r1 drop in January 2025 was revolutionary at its time and shook the narratives in AI world about China being much behind in deep reasoning. American AI firms have taken over deepseek since then but the very fact that they were able to establish a lead at all in the first place is an indication hinting Beijing has the capabilities to leapfrog again with less infra spend. This has started a sort of cold AI war between China and the US

View attachment 4399517


TLDR
China's entire strategy is not to win the race for the smartest machine but to win the race for the most used machine. While Silicon Valley is fixated on the singularity chasing AGI capabilities that may never come or is decades away Beijing is effectively weaponizing AI now. And trying to beat Americans in what they do best. Supply chain logistics

Bro forgetting to tag me in these high quality threads 😢😢
It's extremely brutal how efficient China's authoritarian system is.

Meanwhile America has a literal monkey in Donald Trump and his whole jester clown show administration that spends more time attacking 60% of the country and posting gay internet memes instead of focusing on real issues like the Chinese communist party.

America is genuinely fucked because democracy allows the lowest IQ racist white redneck retards to vote and put retards like Trump in power who in turn destroy the nation from the inside.

Like, look how much those uneducated white racist inbred Trump voters pollute twitter with their low IQ slop, blaming H1B immigrants is a key example. Also they blame low class Mexican laborer's who pick fruit in the fields and do all the construction. China will win the AI race.
What other distinctions are there beyond the authoritarian system?
 
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Bro forgetting to tag me in these high quality threads 😢😢

What other distinctions are there beyond the authoritarian system?
China graduates 5–7× more STEMcels it is also hoarding the planet’s largest data lakes as a national resource.

Again like I said they are government funded and they use state capital who moe happy to fund decade long losses while Valley VCs need exit narratives within a few years or they get impatient.

Basically US has the edge of being first mover with the deepest pockets possible and the best brand names while China has the patience, the population advantage and the manufacturing with willingness to wage this Al war forever instead of a startup lottery ticket
 
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What other distinctions are there beyond the authoritarian system?

The other distinction is China has high IQ authoritarians. They aren’t emotional narcissistic toddlers like Donald Trump.
 
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China is going to catch up to them in a few years, i don't believe they will overtake each other by a large margin though. Since USA has chink researchers as well as much more resources compared to China.
 
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It's extremely brutal how efficient China's authoritarian system is.

Meanwhile America has a literal monkey in Donald Trump and his whole jester clown show administration that spends more time attacking 60% of the country and posting gay internet memes instead of focusing on real issues like the Chinese communist party.

America is genuinely fucked because democracy allows the lowest IQ racist white redneck retards to vote and put retards like Trump in power who in turn destroy the nation from the inside.

Like, look how much those uneducated white racist inbred Trump voters pollute twitter with their low IQ slop, blaming H1B immigrants is a key example. Also they blame low class Mexican laborer's who pick fruit in the fields and do all the construction. China will win the AI race.
China is going to catch up to them in a few years, i don't believe they will overtake each other by a large margin though. Since USA has chink researchers as well as much more resources compared to China.
The main advantage of the US is they have ridiculous amount of money to throw at the problem as long VCs faith remains strong American firms can light 50 billion on fire training some cursed 100T parameter beast that flops and just shrug it off to raise another 100 billion round next quarter and try again. US has the afford to be reckless energy which is why US still owns the frontier cutting edge crown models like Gemini 3, GPT 5 etc and that bag of cash keeps the best talent chasing around bay area and orbit the US but you are right china is closing in hard and they are brutally efficient with it and playing with house money. Will be interesting to see how things play out in the upcoming months tbh @BigBallsLarry @Glorious King @Insomnia @Nexom
 
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USA never loses
 
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I’m (kind of) going with china. This race feels like the Ai version of the Vietnam war. Also I love these threads, I get knowledge on things that I never knew existed
 
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I’m (kind of) going with china. This race feels like the Ai version of the Vietnam war. Also I love these threads, I get knowledge on things that I never knew existed
luca
 
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I’m (kind of) going with china. This race feels like the Ai version of the Vietnam war. Also I love these threads, I get knowledge on things that I never knew existed
That is a stretch man. China isn't that much of an underdog at all. Even China has lot of resources, man power and cash to burn

China graduates 5–7× more STEMcels it is also hoarding the planet’s largest data lakes as a national resource.

Again like I said they are government funded and they use state capital who moe happy to fund decade long losses while Valley VCs need exit narratives within a few years or they get impatient.

Basically US has the edge of being first mover with the deepest pockets possible and the best brand names while China has the patience, the population advantage and the manufacturing with willingness to wage this Al war forever instead of a startup lottery ticket
 
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The main advantage of the US is they have ridiculous amount of money to throw at the problem as long VCs faith remains strong American firms can light 50 billion on fire training some cursed 100T parameter beast that flops and just shrug it off to raise another 100 billion round next quarter and try again. US has the afford to be reckless energy which is why US still owns the frontier cutting edge crown models like Gemini 3, GPT 5 etc and that bag of cash keeps the best talent chasing around bay area and orbit the US but you are right china is closing in hard and they are brutally efficient with it and playing with house money. Will be interesting to see how things play out in the upcoming months tbh @BigBallsLarry @Glorious King @Insomnia @Nexom
Does China not compare in terms of the amount of possible capital being invested say into the AI "race?"
 
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Does China not compare in terms of the amount of possible capital being invested say into the AI "race?"
China is playing with state funds but the sheer volume of private capital the US on Al makes is just insane on many levels. As an example Meta alone earmarked ~$70B for 2025 CapEx. That is more than the GDP of some small nations just to train Llama-4 and 5. China's top players aibaba's is planning on an "aggressive" 3 year Al plan totals only ~$52 Billion.


Also they are forced to spend billions just to build the factories to make the chips because of sanctions while US firms can spend all that money directly on H100s/Blackwell chips to make actually smarter
 
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The main advantage of the US is they have ridiculous amount of money to throw at the problem as long VCs faith remains strong American firms can light 50 billion on fire training some cursed 100T parameter beast that flops and just shrug it off to raise another 100 billion round next quarter and try again. US has the afford to be reckless energy which is why US still owns the frontier cutting edge crown models like Gemini 3, GPT 5 etc and that bag of cash keeps the best talent chasing around bay area and orbit the US but you are right china is closing in hard and they are brutally efficient with it and playing with house money. Will be interesting to see how things play out in the upcoming months tbh @BigBallsLarry @Glorious King @Insomnia @Nexom
china always values efficiency over innovation, flashy , hype stuff

soon they'll surpass the US with tactical steps IN AI
 
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The main advantage of the US is they have ridiculous amount of money to throw at the problem as long VCs faith remains strong American firms can light 50 billion on fire training some cursed 100T parameter beast that flops and just shrug it off to raise another 100 billion round next quarter and try again. US has the afford to be reckless energy which is why US still owns the frontier cutting edge crown models like Gemini 3, GPT 5 etc and that bag of cash keeps the best talent chasing around bay area and orbit the US but you are right china is closing in hard and they are brutally efficient with it and playing with house money. Will be interesting to see how things play out in the upcoming months tbh @BigBallsLarry @Glorious King @Insomnia @Nexom
Combine that with the fact they take the best talent from pretty much all other developing countries, China does have a large talent pool too but not as large as USA.
 
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China will conquer everything
 
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Combine that with the fact they take the best talent from pretty much all other developing countries, China does have a large talent pool too but not as large as USA.
China arguably has a larger talent pool.

Some of their top talent might be working in the U.S., but especially Chinese-born high-tech engineers working in the U.S. have been caught multiple times siphoning off intellectual property to Chinese firms.

Similar to what Jews do for Israel.
 
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China arguably has a larger talent pool.

Some of their top talent might be working in the U.S., but especially Chinese-born high-tech engineers working in the U.S. have been caught multiple times siphoning off intellectual property to Chinese firms.

Similar to what Jews do for Israel.
Well Chinese do not currently take as many top level foreign talent as compared to USA so they arguably don't have a larger talent pool. They will eventually surpass USA though at least in some fields , but it will take a long time until that happens.
 
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Well Chinese do not currently take as many top level foreign talent as compared to USA so they arguably don't have a larger talent pool
True, but they also don't really need foreign talent to the same degree the USA does.

China graduates 1,5 million engineers each year, and has the domestic infrastructure to train them up as well as a large enough industry to place them in the workforce.
 
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It's astounding to me someone your age can be this ignorant and foolish. Like seriously you can't be believing in the shit you say. You must either me insanely foolish or your entire persona has to be a larp.

You are just REEing cause it showed you're wrong. All I did was quote the Nvidia guy. Except the part about Deepseek which was my opinion, and is also right.
 

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