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WTPZ41 KNHC 052038
TCDEP1
Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023
This afternoon's satellite presentation of the system has improved,
with a well-developed curved band in its eastern semicircle and a
recent burst of deep convection with -75 Celsius cloud tops just
east of the surface circulation. Based on this and a consensus of
the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the system is being
upgraded to Tropical Storm Eugene, making it the fifth tropical
storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season.
Although dry mid-tropospheric air originating from mainland Mexico
may be negatively affecting the cyclone's intensification rate, as
indicated by the presence of a few arc clouds, a brief window of
opportunity still exists for further strengthening during the next
day or so. By mid-period, Eugene is expected to move over the
cooler water west of the Baja California peninsula and enter a
surrounding dry and stable marine-layer air mass. The NHC forecast
calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours, or
sooner, and dissipation in 5 days which is slightly below the Decay
SHIPS statistical guidance, but close to the LGEM and the usually
reliable intensity consensus guidance.
The initial estimated motion is northwestward or 315/13 kt. The
track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, and Eugene should move
generally northwestward in the short term within the southeasterly
mid-level steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge to the
north. By 48 hours, the vertically shallow cyclone should turn
toward the west-northwest in the lower boundary trade wind flow
while a reduction in forward speed takes place, possibly meandering
before dissipating next week. The updated NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous official forecast and lies near the
various consensus models. Although the track forecast is currently
off the southwestern coast of Mexico, enough uncertainty still
exists that interests in the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 19.2N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
WTPZ41 KNHC 052038
TCDEP1
Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023
This afternoon's satellite presentation of the system has improved,
with a well-developed curved band in its eastern semicircle and a
recent burst of deep convection with -75 Celsius cloud tops just
east of the surface circulation. Based on this and a consensus of
the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the system is being
upgraded to Tropical Storm Eugene, making it the fifth tropical
storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season.
Although dry mid-tropospheric air originating from mainland Mexico
may be negatively affecting the cyclone's intensification rate, as
indicated by the presence of a few arc clouds, a brief window of
opportunity still exists for further strengthening during the next
day or so. By mid-period, Eugene is expected to move over the
cooler water west of the Baja California peninsula and enter a
surrounding dry and stable marine-layer air mass. The NHC forecast
calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours, or
sooner, and dissipation in 5 days which is slightly below the Decay
SHIPS statistical guidance, but close to the LGEM and the usually
reliable intensity consensus guidance.
The initial estimated motion is northwestward or 315/13 kt. The
track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, and Eugene should move
generally northwestward in the short term within the southeasterly
mid-level steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge to the
north. By 48 hours, the vertically shallow cyclone should turn
toward the west-northwest in the lower boundary trade wind flow
while a reduction in forward speed takes place, possibly meandering
before dissipating next week. The updated NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous official forecast and lies near the
various consensus models. Although the track forecast is currently
off the southwestern coast of Mexico, enough uncertainty still
exists that interests in the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 19.2N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Ermmmm it says that's a storm not a hurricane
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CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY... ...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY...
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The weather man starring Nicholas cage & zhangsane
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Typhoon Doksuri - Wikipedia
Typhoon Doksuri, known in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Egay, was a powerful and destructive tropical cyclone that caused extensive damage in the Philippines, Taiwan, and China, in late-July 2023.
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St. BlackOps2cel is French so he probably wouldn't be named Eugene
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Eugène Goossens, fils - Wikipedia
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Eugène Goossens, fils - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
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Gay typhoon mogging chudsTyphoon Doksuri - Wikipedia
Typhoon Doksuri, known in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Egay, was a powerful and destructive tropical cyclone that caused extensive damage in the Philippines, Taiwan, and China, in late-July 2023.
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Gays killed 800 people in 1989
Typhoon Gay, also known as the Kavali Cyclone of 1989,[1] was a small but powerful tropical cyclone which caused more than 800 fatalities in and around the Gulf of Thailand in November 1989. The worst typhoon to affect the Malay Peninsula in thirty-five years, Gay originated from a monsoon...
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