If someone made a post like this about me I'd kms

[Deleted member 30037]

OVER FOR @Xangsane LOL

 

[Xangsane]

OVER FOR @Xangsane LOL

View attachment 2733396

Why would you rope?

 

[Deleted member 30037]

Why would you rope?

Being called autistic on an autistic forum is next level autism

 

[Xangsane]

Being called autistic on an autistic forum is next level autism

y

 

[Deleted member 30037]

y

Because that means you're EXTRA autistic not just regular autistic

 

[Xangsane]

Because that means you're EXTRA autistic not just regular autistic

how

 

[Deleted member 30679]

I hope you all know Xangsane is legit an AI
Your all talking to chatgpt or some shit

 

[Xangsane]

I hope you all know Xangsane is legit an AI
Your all talking to chatgpt or some shit

Eli​

rice​

 

[bourgeoizyzz]

OVER FOR @Xangsane LOL

View attachment 2733396

fucking brutal

 

[Xangsane]

I hope you all know Xangsane is legit an AI
Your all talking to chatgpt or some shit

Eli Rice - Penn State Nittany Lions Guard - ESPN (UK)

View the profile of Penn State Nittany Lions Guard Eli Rice on ESPN (UK). Get the latest news, live stats and game highlights.

www.espn.co.uk

 

[Deleted member 30037]

I hope you all know Xangsane is legit an AI
Your all talking to chatgpt or some shit

Any reply to him is an automatic "y" response

 

[IAMNOTANINCEL]

Xangsane is a real, sentient nigga and they hate him for it

 

[Xangsane]

Any reply to him is an automatic "y" response

Over Hurricane ERnesto will go ER this summer, Hurricane humbERto will go ER next summer

 

[Deleted member 32485]

Because that means you're EXTRA autistic not just regular autistic

Most people on this forum aren't autistic at all

 

[Deleted member 18522]

him and brahmin need to be purged or limited to 10 posts a day

 

[Deleted member 30037]

Most people on this forum aren't autistic at all

You're crazy, if you talk to normies IRL you know how NT people act. Nothing like this forum, not even reddit

 

[Deleted member 30037]

him and brahmin need to be purged or limited to 10 posts a day

I should tag mods, great idea

 

[Deleted member 32485]

You're crazy, if you talk to normies IRL you know how NT people act. Nothing like this forum, not even reddit

I have actual autism so I avoid normies IRL, and acting unusual isn't inherently autistic. Most people here are just poorly socialized or outcast and insecure normies. If they had more friends and positive experiences they'd become normie pretty quick. Autism is an actual developmental difference in the brain

 

[Deleted member 30037]

I have actual autism so I avoid normies IRL, and acting unusual isn't inherently autistic. Most people here are just poorly socialized or outcast and insecure normies. If they had more friends and positive experiences they'd become normie pretty quick. Autism is an actual developmental difference in the brain

Now you say that, I think you're right. The more I hang out with friends IRL the more "nt" I feel myself becoming. I'm not actually autistic but I'm just blackpilled and don't have massive social experience. I need to start going out in 2024 this is my YEAR TO BECOME NT AGAIN (I use to be super NT when younger)

 

[Xangsane]

I have actual autism so I avoid normies IRL, and acting unusual isn't inherently autistic. Most people here are just poorly socialized or outcast and insecure normies. If they had more friends and positive experiences they'd become normie pretty quick. Autism is an actual developmental difference in the brain

so do I

Now you say that, I think you're right. The more I hang out with friends IRL the more "nt" I feel myself becoming. I'm not actually autistic but I'm just blackpilled and don't have massive social experience. I need to start going out in 2024 this is my YEAR TO BECOME NT AGAIN (I use to be super NT when younger)

do my looks match my personality?
PAT ME!

 

[Deleted member 32485]

do my looks match my personality?

TBH I don't even know what your personality is. But you don't look like you have autism, no. But most people don't unless they have the robust tard pheno or actual deformities.

 

[Xangsane]

TBH I don't even know what your personality is. But you don't look like you have autism, no

ynot?

 

[Deleted member 32485]

ynot?

People don't look autistic unless they look deformed or have very wide features

 

[Xangsane]

People don't look autistic unless they look deformed or have very wide features

pat me

 

[LancasteR]

pat me

Don‘t pat this nigga

 

[Xangsane]

Don‘t pat this nigga

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERTROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT1HURRICANE JOVA(EP112023)4–10 September 2023Lisa BucciNational Hurricane Center1 February 2024GOES-18 INFRARED IMAGERY AT 0000 UTC 7 SEPTEMBER WHILE JOVA WAS AT PEAK INTENSITY. IMAGE COURTESY OF NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.Jova was a category 5 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) thatoccurred in the eastern Pacific ocean and did not affect land.1 This is an abbreviated Tropical Cyclone Report since there were no coastal watches or warnings issuedand no direct fatalities reported in association with Jova.HURRICANE JOVA 2Hurricane Jova4–10 SEPTEMBER 2023BEST TRACKHurricane Jova is notable for its impressive rapid intensification over a 48-h period, goingfrom a 30-kt tropical depression on 0000 UTC 5 September to its peak intensity of 140-kt on 0000UTC 7 September (cover photo). The “best track2” positions and intensities for Hurricane Jovaare listed in Table 1. The best track chart of Jova’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind andpressure histories along with available observations3 shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively.There were no ship or buoy reports of tropical-storm-force winds associated with Jova.OriginThe origins of Jova are from an easterly wave that exited the western coast of Africa on23 August, crossed the Windward Islands on 29‒30 August and crossed Central America on 1‒2 September. A tropical depression formed over the eastern Pacific on 4 September.Peak Intensity and Minimum PressureThe peak intensity of 140 kt at 0000 UTC through 0600 UTC 7 September is supportedby subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. While satellite intensity estimates continuedto rise or were steady after the peak, this appears to be an artifact of the satellite classificationconstraints causing the estimates to lag during to the storm’s rapid intensification.The estimated minimum central pressure of 926 mb is based on the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney(KZC) pressure-wind relationship.2 A digital record of the complete best track, including wind radii, can be found on line atftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf. Data for the current year’s storms are located in the btk directory, while previousyears’ data are located in the archive directory.3 Observations include subjective satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the TropicalAnalysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), objective Advanced DvorakTechnique (ADT) estimates and Satellite Consensus (SATCON) estimates from the Cooperative Institutefor Meteorological Satellite Studies/University of Wisconsin-Madison. Data and imagery from NOAA polarorbiting satellites including the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA Global PrecipitationMission (GPM), the European Space Agency’s Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and DefenseMeteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, among others, were also useful in constructing the besttrack of Jova.HURRICANE JOVA 3CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTCSThere were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Jova.FORECAST AND WARNING VERIFICATIONTable 2 provides the number of hours in advance of formation with the first NHC TropicalWeather Outlook (TWO) forecast in each likelihood category. Figure 4 shows composites of 7-day TWO genesis areas for each category prior to the formation of Jova. Jova’s genesis locationoccurred within all potential formation areas depicted by NHC. However, the forecast lead timefor genesis was short, with the system first introduced in the TWO only 90 h before formation.The 48-h probability did not reach the high category until 6 h prior to genesis.A verification of NHC official track forecasts for Jova is given in Table 3a. Official trackforecast errors were lower than the mean official errors for the previous 5-yr period for all forecasthours except 72 h. A homogeneous comparison of the official track errors with selected guidancemodels is given in Table 3b.A verification of NHC official intensity forecasts for Jova is given in Table 4a. Officialintensity forecast errors were greater than the mean official errors for the previous 5-yr period forall forecast hours, largely due to NHC’s forecast not anticipating the magnitude of the storm’srapid intensification and subsequent weakening. A homogeneous comparison of the officialintensity errors with selected guidance models is given in Table 4b. Of the available guidance,the statistical models (including LGEM and DSHP) performed better than the official forecast,particularly in the short-term forecast period, because they more accurately captured Jova’s rapidintensification (Fig. 5). Several of the simple and corrected consensus aids (HCCA, ICON, etc.)had lower intensity errors than the NHC forecast throughout most, if not all, of the forecast period.Those guidance aids also predicted Jova’s rapid weakening phase especially well. Regional andglobal dynamical models largely missed the rapid intensification event, though those aids tendedto have errors lower than the official forecast errors in the long-term forecast period (72-96 h).There were no coastal watches or warnings issued for Jova.HURRICANE JOVA 4Table 1. Best track for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023.Date/Time(UTC)Latitude(°N)Longitude(°W)Pressure(mb)Wind Speed(kt) Stage04 / 1200 12.2 102.8 1007 30 low04 / 1800 12.3 103.8 1007 30 tropical depression05 / 0000 12.4 104.9 1006 30 "05 / 0600 12.4 105.9 1004 35 tropical storm05 / 1200 12.5 106.7 1001 45 "05 / 1800 12.7 107.5 998 50 "06 / 0000 13.0 108.2 993 60 "06 / 0600 13.3 109.0 981 75 hurricane06 / 1200 13.9 110.0 972 90 "06 / 1800 14.6 111.1 953 115 "07 / 0000 15.3 112.4 926 140 "07 / 0600 16.1 113.7 926 140 "07 / 1200 16.8 115.0 932 135 "07 / 1800 17.4 116.6 941 125 "08 / 0000 18.0 117.9 947 115 "08 / 0600 18.8 119.1 959 100 "08 / 1200 19.5 120.6 972 85 "08 / 1800 20.1 121.9 980 75 "09 / 0000 20.7 123.2 984 70 "09 / 0600 21.2 124.2 986 60 tropical storm09 / 1200 22.0 125.2 992 55 "09 / 1800 22.6 125.8 999 45 "10 / 0000 23.3 126.2 999 45 "10 / 0600 23.8 126.6 1001 40 low10 / 1200 24.2 127.0 1004 35 "10 / 1800 24.5 127.4 1005 30 "11 / 0000 24.7 127.7 1006 30 "11 / 0600 24.8 128.2 1007 30 "11 / 1200 24.7 128.6 1008 30 "HURRICANE JOVA 5Date/Time(UTC)Latitude(°N)Longitude(°W)Pressure(mb)Wind Speed(kt) Stage11 / 1800 24.6 129.0 1009 25 "12 / 0000 24.4 129.5 1010 25 "12 / 0600 23.9 130.5 1011 25 "12 / 1200 23.3 131.4 1011 25 "12 / 1800 22.7 132.5 1012 20 "13 / 0000 22.4 133.8 1012 20 "13 / 0600 22.3 135.1 1012 20 "13 / 1200 22.1 136.7 1012 20 "13 / 1800 21.8 138.6 1012 20 "14 / 0000 20.9 140.0 1013 20 "14 / 0600 dissipated07 / 0000 15.3 112.4 926 140 minimum pressure &maximum windsHURRICANE JOVA 6Table 2. Number of hours in advance of formation associated with the first NHC TropicalWeather Outlook forecast in the indicated likelihood category. Note that thetimings for the “Low” category do not include forecasts of a 0% chance of genesis.Hours Before Genesis48-Hour Outlook 168-Hour OutlookLow (<40%) 60 90Medium (40%-60%) 30 78High (>60%) 6 66Table 3a. NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) trackforecast errors (n mi) for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023. Mean errors forthe previous 5-yr period are shown for comparison. Official errors that are smallerthan the 5-yr means are shown in boldface type.Forecast Period (h)12 24 36 48 60 72 96 120OFCL 19.7 30.0 39.8 48.9 64.0 80.4 86.1 73.6OCD5 33.5 62.2 94.8 137.1 205.9 281.2 370.2 408.2Forecasts 20 18 16 14 12 10 6 2OFCL (2018-22) 22.1 34.0 45.4 56.0 70.9 78.7 100.5 117.8OCD5 (2018-22) 36.7 73.4 114.0 156.9 193.2 244.5 317.0 376.0HURRICANE JOVA 7Table 3b. Homogeneous comparison of selected track forecast guidance models (in n mi)for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023. Errors smaller than the NHC officialforecast are shown in boldface type. The number of official forecasts shown herewill generally be smaller than that shown in Table 3a due to the homogeneityrequirement.Model IDForecast Period (h)12 24 36 48 60 72 96 120OFCL 16.2 27.8 42.0 54.0 68.0 81.9 78.1OCD5 29.1 61.8 106.5 170.3 253.5 339.7 450.2GFSI 17.9 35.1 54.1 73.1 84.8 101.4 66.5HWFI 18.2 36.7 60.8 78.1 90.3 114.6 120.3HMNI 23.4 39.9 51.5 63.2 60.5 69.1 69.0HFAI 22.4 43.2 63.2 76.6 86.2 89.6 109.5HFBI 22.3 43.0 59.1 72.9 66.9 58.2 41.5EGRI 22.7 45.9 79.0 116.8 159.1 208.8 332.5EMXI 17.4 23.3 32.9 48.0 60.9 79.1 105.6NVGI 21.4 26.4 37.7 52.8 72.9 88.5 86.1CMCI 22.4 42.1 59.5 70.9 85.7 85.5 81.5CTCI 22.5 44.3 61.9 86.0 97.0 126.8 108.3TVCE 16.8 31.9 47.6 62.2 73.6 89.7 97.1TVCX 17.0 31.2 46.5 61.6 72.7 89.2 91.6GFEX 14.7 25.8 41.2 56.1 70.6 87.7 85.7TVDG 17.3 32.0 47.2 61.2 76.2 95.1 109.7HCCA 16.8 26.9 38.6 48.4 57.7 63.7 83.9FSSE 16.0 25.6 37.4 43.0 53.7 75.2 85.6AEMI 17.8 34.8 53.1 75.3 86.6 94.9 97.2TABS 25.8 46.0 59.9 82.3 123.5 148.8 57.0TABM 19.4 29.1 43.9 69.9 106.5 123.1 60.1TABD 18.3 28.3 46.2 74.2 104.5 127.4 58.7Forecasts 16 14 12 10 8 6 2 0HURRICANE JOVA 8Table 4a. NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) intensityforecast errors (kt) for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023. Mean errors for theprevious 5-yr period are shown for comparison. Official errors that are smallerthan the 5-yr means are shown in boldface type.Forecast Period (h)12 24 36 48 60 72 96 120OFCL 9.0 17.8 25.9 32.1 32.1 26.0 24.2 25.0OCD5 10.7 20.7 30.0 37.5 39.2 34.8 15.8 17.5Forecasts 20 18 16 14 12 10 6 2OFCL (2018-22) 5.4 8.9 11.0 12.8 14.3 15.8 17.0 17.6OCD5 (2018-22) 6.9 12.1 15.9 18.6 18.7 21.0 22.3 22.1HURRICANE JOVA 9Table 4b. Homogeneous comparison of selected intensity forecast guidance models (in kt)for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023. Errors smaller than the NHC officialforecast are shown in boldface type. The number of official forecasts shown herewill generally be smaller than that shown in Table 4a due to the homogeneityrequirement.Model IDForecast Period (h)12 24 36 48 60 72 96 120OFCL 9.4 18.4 25.4 26.7 27.5 26.9 25.0OCD5 11.2 22.3 30.5 33.2 32.6 30.4 21.0HWFI 13.3 22.6 30.9 28.9 21.2 13.5 3.8HMNI 11.9 22.1 28.3 25.9 20.4 15.4 2.8HFAI 11.6 22.1 30.1 27.2 18.5 9.4 4.5HFBI 12.4 22.1 28.7 26.7 18.6 11.8 4.0DSHP 8.6 16.4 24.9 29.6 30.2 33.2 42.8LGEM 7.2 13.6 19.5 21.9 23.3 26.1 26.8ICON 9.6 18.3 24.4 24.1 19.8 16.4 16.5IVCN 10.1 19.3 26.2 24.0 16.8 11.2 11.0IVDR 10.7 20.6 28.4 26.2 18.3 10.2 7.0CTCI 10.7 19.9 27.5 24.8 15.7 10.4 7.2GFSI 14.0 28.1 39.0 40.2 34.9 23.1 9.0EMXI 16.5 31.9 43.4 44.3 35.3 22.9 6.8HCCA 9.2 15.8 20.6 18.0 9.0 5.5 7.2FSSE 9.6 19.2 28.4 27.5 18.8 13.4 20.0Forecasts 18 16 14 12 10 8 4 0HURRICANE JOVA 10Figure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023.HURRICANE JOVA 11Figure 2. Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September2023. Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates represent the Current Intensity at the nominal observation time. SATCONintensity estimates are from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. Dashed vertical lines correspond to0000 UTC.HURRICANE JOVA 12Figure 3. Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023.Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates represent the Current Intensity at the nominal observation time. SATCON intensityestimates are from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. KZC P-W refers to pressure estimates derivedusing the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney pressure-wind relationship. Dashed vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC.HURRICANE JOVA 13Figure 4. Composites of 7-day tropical cyclone genesis areas depicted in NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlooks prior to the formation of Jovafor (a) all probabilistic genesis categories, (b) the low (<40%) category, (c) medium (40–60%) category, and (d) high (>60%)category. The location of genesis is indicated by the black star.HURRICANE JOVA 14Figure 5. (Upper left) NHC official intensity forecasts (dashed blue lines) from 0000 UTC 5 September to 1800 UTC 9 September. (Upperright) Interpolated HAFS-A intensity forecasts (dotted dark green), (lower left) LGEM (dotted dark magenta), and (lower right)ICON (dotted cyan) are shown for the same times. The best track is depicted by the black line with markers shown every 6hours.


⌘M








Home
Mobile Site
Text Version
RSS

Local Forecast

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

• ANALYSES & FORECASTS
  • Tropical Cyclone Products
  • Tropical Weather Outlooks
  • Marine Products
  • Audio/Podcasts
  • RSS Feeds
  • GIS Products
  • Alternate Formats
  • Tropical Cyclone Product Descriptions
  • Tropical Cyclone Product Examples
  • Marine Product Descriptions
• ▾
• DATA & TOOLS
  • Satellite Imagery
  • Radar Imagery
  • Aircraft Reconnaissance
  • Tropical Analysis Tools
  • Experimental Products
  • Lat/Lon Distance Calculator
  • Blank Tracking Maps
• ▾
• EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES
  • Be Prepared!
    NWS Hurricane
    Prep Week
  • NWS Hurricane Safety
  • Outreach Documents
  • Storm Surge
  • Watch/Warning Breakpoints
  • Climatology
  • Tropical Cyclone Names
  • Wind Scale
  • Records and Facts
  • Historical Hurricane Summaries
  • Forecast Models
  • NHC Publications
  • NHC Glossary
  • Acronyms
  • Frequent Questions
• ▾
• ARCHIVES
  • Tropical Cyclone Advisories
  • Tropical Weather Outlooks
  • Tropical Cyclone Reports
  • Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification
  • Atlantic Current Season Summary
  • E. Pacific Current Season Summary
  • C. Pacific Current Season Summary
  • NHC News Archive
  • Other Archives: HURDAT,
    Track Maps,
    Marine Products,
    and more
• ▾
• ABOUT
  • National Hurricane Center
  • Central Pacific
    Hurricane Center
  • Contact Us
• ▾
• SEARCH
  Search For
  NWS All NOAA
• ▾

Hurricane JOVA Advisory Archive​

---

Graphics Archive

---

Forecast Advisories	Public Advisories	Discussions	Wind Speed Probabilities
Monday September 4, 2023
1: 2100 UTC	1: 400 PM CDT 2: 1000 PM CDT	1: 400 PM CDT 2: 1000 PM CDT	1: 2100 UTC
Tuesday September 5, 2023
2: 0300 UTC 3: 0900 UTC 4: 1500 UTC 5: 2100 UTC	3: 300 AM MDT 4: 900 AM MDT 5: 300 PM MDT 6: 900 PM MDT	3: 300 AM MDT 4: 900 AM MDT 5: 300 PM MDT 6: 900 PM MDT	2: 0300 UTC 3: 0900 UTC 4: 1500 UTC 5: 2100 UTC
Wednesday September 6, 2023
6: 0300 UTC 7: 0900 UTC 8: 1500 UTC 9: 2100 UTC	7: 300 AM MDT 8: 900 AM MDT 9: 300 PM MDT 10: 900 PM MDT	7: 300 AM MDT 8: 900 AM MDT 9: 300 PM MDT 10: 900 PM MDT	6: 0300 UTC 7: 0900 UTC 8: 1500 UTC 9: 2100 UTC
Thursday September 7, 2023
10: 0300 UTC 11: 0900 UTC 12: 1500 UTC 13: 2100 UTC	11: 300 AM MDT 12: 800 AM PDT 13: 200 PM PDT 14: 800 PM PDT	11: 300 AM MDT 12: 800 AM PDT 13: 200 PM PDT 14: 800 PM PDT	10: 0300 UTC 11: 0900 UTC 12: 1500 UTC 13: 2100 UTC
Friday September 8, 2023
14: 0300 UTC 15: 0900 UTC 16: 1500 UTC 17: 2100 UTC	15: 200 AM PDT 16: 800 AM PDT 17: 200 PM PDT 18: 800 PM PDT	15: 200 AM PDT 16: 800 AM PDT 17: 200 PM PDT 18: 800 PM PDT	14: 0300 UTC 15: 0900 UTC 16: 1500 UTC 17: 2100 UTC
Saturday September 9, 2023
18: 0300 UTC 19: 0900 UTC 20: 1500 UTC 21: 2100 UTC	19: 200 AM PDT 20: 800 AM PDT 21: 200 PM PDT 22: 800 PM PDT	19: 200 AM PDT 20: 800 AM PDT 21: 200 PM PDT 22: 800 PM PDT	18: 0300 UTC 19: 0900 UTC 20: 1500 UTC 21: 2100 UTC
Sunday September 10, 2023
22: 0300 UTC 23: 0900 UTC 24: 1500 UTC 25: 2100 UTC	23: 200 AM PDT 24: 800 AM PDT 25: 200 PM PDT	23: 200 AM PDT 24: 800 AM PDT 25: 200 PM PDT	22: 0300 UTC 23: 0900 UTC 24: 1500 UTC 25: 2100 UTC

Quick Links and Additional Resources
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS
Tropical Cyclone Advisories
Tropical Weather Outlook
Audio/Podcasts
About Advisories

MARINE FORECASTS
Offshore Waters Forecasts
Gridded Forecasts
Graphicast
About Marine
SOCIAL MEDIA
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog:
"Inside the Eye"

HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
Preparedness Guide
Hurricane Hazards
Watches and Warnings
Marine Safety
Ready.gov Hurricanes | en Español
Weather-Ready Nation
Emergency Management Offices
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
NOAA Hurricane Research Division
Hurricane and Ocean Testbed (HOT)
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program

OTHER RESOURCES
Q & A with NHC
NHC/AOML Library Branch
NOAA: Hurricane FAQs
National Hurricane Operations Plan
WX4NHC Amateur Radio
NWS FORECAST OFFICES
Weather Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
Ocean Prediction Center
Local Forecast Offices

WORLDWIDE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERS
Canadian Hurricane Centre
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Other Tropical Cyclone Centers
WMO Severe Weather Info Centre

US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, FL, 33165
[email protected]
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
2525 Correa Rd
Suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
[email protected]
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities

JFL Reply

 

[LancasteR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERTROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT1HURRICANE JOVA(EP112023)4–10 September 2023Lisa BucciNational Hurricane Center1 February 2024GOES-18 INFRARED IMAGERY AT 0000 UTC 7 SEPTEMBER WHILE JOVA WAS AT PEAK INTENSITY. IMAGE COURTESY OF NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.Jova was a category 5 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) thatoccurred in the eastern Pacific ocean and did not affect land.1 This is an abbreviated Tropical Cyclone Report since there were no coastal watches or warnings issuedand no direct fatalities reported in association with Jova.HURRICANE JOVA 2Hurricane Jova4–10 SEPTEMBER 2023BEST TRACKHurricane Jova is notable for its impressive rapid intensification over a 48-h period, goingfrom a 30-kt tropical depression on 0000 UTC 5 September to its peak intensity of 140-kt on 0000UTC 7 September (cover photo). The “best track2” positions and intensities for Hurricane Jovaare listed in Table 1. The best track chart of Jova’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind andpressure histories along with available observations3 shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively.There were no ship or buoy reports of tropical-storm-force winds associated with Jova.OriginThe origins of Jova are from an easterly wave that exited the western coast of Africa on23 August, crossed the Windward Islands on 29‒30 August and crossed Central America on 1‒2 September. A tropical depression formed over the eastern Pacific on 4 September.Peak Intensity and Minimum PressureThe peak intensity of 140 kt at 0000 UTC through 0600 UTC 7 September is supportedby subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. While satellite intensity estimates continuedto rise or were steady after the peak, this appears to be an artifact of the satellite classificationconstraints causing the estimates to lag during to the storm’s rapid intensification.The estimated minimum central pressure of 926 mb is based on the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney(KZC) pressure-wind relationship.2 A digital record of the complete best track, including wind radii, can be found on line atftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf. Data for the current year’s storms are located in the btk directory, while previousyears’ data are located in the archive directory.3 Observations include subjective satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the TropicalAnalysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), objective Advanced DvorakTechnique (ADT) estimates and Satellite Consensus (SATCON) estimates from the Cooperative Institutefor Meteorological Satellite Studies/University of Wisconsin-Madison. Data and imagery from NOAA polarorbiting satellites including the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA Global PrecipitationMission (GPM), the European Space Agency’s Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and DefenseMeteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, among others, were also useful in constructing the besttrack of Jova.HURRICANE JOVA 3CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTCSThere were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Jova.FORECAST AND WARNING VERIFICATIONTable 2 provides the number of hours in advance of formation with the first NHC TropicalWeather Outlook (TWO) forecast in each likelihood category. Figure 4 shows composites of 7-day TWO genesis areas for each category prior to the formation of Jova. Jova’s genesis locationoccurred within all potential formation areas depicted by NHC. However, the forecast lead timefor genesis was short, with the system first introduced in the TWO only 90 h before formation.The 48-h probability did not reach the high category until 6 h prior to genesis.A verification of NHC official track forecasts for Jova is given in Table 3a. Official trackforecast errors were lower than the mean official errors for the previous 5-yr period for all forecasthours except 72 h. A homogeneous comparison of the official track errors with selected guidancemodels is given in Table 3b.A verification of NHC official intensity forecasts for Jova is given in Table 4a. Officialintensity forecast errors were greater than the mean official errors for the previous 5-yr period forall forecast hours, largely due to NHC’s forecast not anticipating the magnitude of the storm’srapid intensification and subsequent weakening. A homogeneous comparison of the officialintensity errors with selected guidance models is given in Table 4b. Of the available guidance,the statistical models (including LGEM and DSHP) performed better than the official forecast,particularly in the short-term forecast period, because they more accurately captured Jova’s rapidintensification (Fig. 5). Several of the simple and corrected consensus aids (HCCA, ICON, etc.)had lower intensity errors than the NHC forecast throughout most, if not all, of the forecast period.Those guidance aids also predicted Jova’s rapid weakening phase especially well. Regional andglobal dynamical models largely missed the rapid intensification event, though those aids tendedto have errors lower than the official forecast errors in the long-term forecast period (72-96 h).There were no coastal watches or warnings issued for Jova.HURRICANE JOVA 4Table 1. Best track for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023.Date/Time(UTC)Latitude(°N)Longitude(°W)Pressure(mb)Wind Speed(kt) Stage04 / 1200 12.2 102.8 1007 30 low04 / 1800 12.3 103.8 1007 30 tropical depression05 / 0000 12.4 104.9 1006 30 "05 / 0600 12.4 105.9 1004 35 tropical storm05 / 1200 12.5 106.7 1001 45 "05 / 1800 12.7 107.5 998 50 "06 / 0000 13.0 108.2 993 60 "06 / 0600 13.3 109.0 981 75 hurricane06 / 1200 13.9 110.0 972 90 "06 / 1800 14.6 111.1 953 115 "07 / 0000 15.3 112.4 926 140 "07 / 0600 16.1 113.7 926 140 "07 / 1200 16.8 115.0 932 135 "07 / 1800 17.4 116.6 941 125 "08 / 0000 18.0 117.9 947 115 "08 / 0600 18.8 119.1 959 100 "08 / 1200 19.5 120.6 972 85 "08 / 1800 20.1 121.9 980 75 "09 / 0000 20.7 123.2 984 70 "09 / 0600 21.2 124.2 986 60 tropical storm09 / 1200 22.0 125.2 992 55 "09 / 1800 22.6 125.8 999 45 "10 / 0000 23.3 126.2 999 45 "10 / 0600 23.8 126.6 1001 40 low10 / 1200 24.2 127.0 1004 35 "10 / 1800 24.5 127.4 1005 30 "11 / 0000 24.7 127.7 1006 30 "11 / 0600 24.8 128.2 1007 30 "11 / 1200 24.7 128.6 1008 30 "HURRICANE JOVA 5Date/Time(UTC)Latitude(°N)Longitude(°W)Pressure(mb)Wind Speed(kt) Stage11 / 1800 24.6 129.0 1009 25 "12 / 0000 24.4 129.5 1010 25 "12 / 0600 23.9 130.5 1011 25 "12 / 1200 23.3 131.4 1011 25 "12 / 1800 22.7 132.5 1012 20 "13 / 0000 22.4 133.8 1012 20 "13 / 0600 22.3 135.1 1012 20 "13 / 1200 22.1 136.7 1012 20 "13 / 1800 21.8 138.6 1012 20 "14 / 0000 20.9 140.0 1013 20 "14 / 0600 dissipated07 / 0000 15.3 112.4 926 140 minimum pressure &maximum windsHURRICANE JOVA 6Table 2. Number of hours in advance of formation associated with the first NHC TropicalWeather Outlook forecast in the indicated likelihood category. Note that thetimings for the “Low” category do not include forecasts of a 0% chance of genesis.Hours Before Genesis48-Hour Outlook 168-Hour OutlookLow (<40%) 60 90Medium (40%-60%) 30 78High (>60%) 6 66Table 3a. NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) trackforecast errors (n mi) for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023. Mean errors forthe previous 5-yr period are shown for comparison. Official errors that are smallerthan the 5-yr means are shown in boldface type.Forecast Period (h)12 24 36 48 60 72 96 120OFCL 19.7 30.0 39.8 48.9 64.0 80.4 86.1 73.6OCD5 33.5 62.2 94.8 137.1 205.9 281.2 370.2 408.2Forecasts 20 18 16 14 12 10 6 2OFCL (2018-22) 22.1 34.0 45.4 56.0 70.9 78.7 100.5 117.8OCD5 (2018-22) 36.7 73.4 114.0 156.9 193.2 244.5 317.0 376.0HURRICANE JOVA 7Table 3b. Homogeneous comparison of selected track forecast guidance models (in n mi)for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023. Errors smaller than the NHC officialforecast are shown in boldface type. The number of official forecasts shown herewill generally be smaller than that shown in Table 3a due to the homogeneityrequirement.Model IDForecast Period (h)12 24 36 48 60 72 96 120OFCL 16.2 27.8 42.0 54.0 68.0 81.9 78.1OCD5 29.1 61.8 106.5 170.3 253.5 339.7 450.2GFSI 17.9 35.1 54.1 73.1 84.8 101.4 66.5HWFI 18.2 36.7 60.8 78.1 90.3 114.6 120.3HMNI 23.4 39.9 51.5 63.2 60.5 69.1 69.0HFAI 22.4 43.2 63.2 76.6 86.2 89.6 109.5HFBI 22.3 43.0 59.1 72.9 66.9 58.2 41.5EGRI 22.7 45.9 79.0 116.8 159.1 208.8 332.5EMXI 17.4 23.3 32.9 48.0 60.9 79.1 105.6NVGI 21.4 26.4 37.7 52.8 72.9 88.5 86.1CMCI 22.4 42.1 59.5 70.9 85.7 85.5 81.5CTCI 22.5 44.3 61.9 86.0 97.0 126.8 108.3TVCE 16.8 31.9 47.6 62.2 73.6 89.7 97.1TVCX 17.0 31.2 46.5 61.6 72.7 89.2 91.6GFEX 14.7 25.8 41.2 56.1 70.6 87.7 85.7TVDG 17.3 32.0 47.2 61.2 76.2 95.1 109.7HCCA 16.8 26.9 38.6 48.4 57.7 63.7 83.9FSSE 16.0 25.6 37.4 43.0 53.7 75.2 85.6AEMI 17.8 34.8 53.1 75.3 86.6 94.9 97.2TABS 25.8 46.0 59.9 82.3 123.5 148.8 57.0TABM 19.4 29.1 43.9 69.9 106.5 123.1 60.1TABD 18.3 28.3 46.2 74.2 104.5 127.4 58.7Forecasts 16 14 12 10 8 6 2 0HURRICANE JOVA 8Table 4a. NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) intensityforecast errors (kt) for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023. Mean errors for theprevious 5-yr period are shown for comparison. Official errors that are smallerthan the 5-yr means are shown in boldface type.Forecast Period (h)12 24 36 48 60 72 96 120OFCL 9.0 17.8 25.9 32.1 32.1 26.0 24.2 25.0OCD5 10.7 20.7 30.0 37.5 39.2 34.8 15.8 17.5Forecasts 20 18 16 14 12 10 6 2OFCL (2018-22) 5.4 8.9 11.0 12.8 14.3 15.8 17.0 17.6OCD5 (2018-22) 6.9 12.1 15.9 18.6 18.7 21.0 22.3 22.1HURRICANE JOVA 9Table 4b. Homogeneous comparison of selected intensity forecast guidance models (in kt)for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023. Errors smaller than the NHC officialforecast are shown in boldface type. The number of official forecasts shown herewill generally be smaller than that shown in Table 4a due to the homogeneityrequirement.Model IDForecast Period (h)12 24 36 48 60 72 96 120OFCL 9.4 18.4 25.4 26.7 27.5 26.9 25.0OCD5 11.2 22.3 30.5 33.2 32.6 30.4 21.0HWFI 13.3 22.6 30.9 28.9 21.2 13.5 3.8HMNI 11.9 22.1 28.3 25.9 20.4 15.4 2.8HFAI 11.6 22.1 30.1 27.2 18.5 9.4 4.5HFBI 12.4 22.1 28.7 26.7 18.6 11.8 4.0DSHP 8.6 16.4 24.9 29.6 30.2 33.2 42.8LGEM 7.2 13.6 19.5 21.9 23.3 26.1 26.8ICON 9.6 18.3 24.4 24.1 19.8 16.4 16.5IVCN 10.1 19.3 26.2 24.0 16.8 11.2 11.0IVDR 10.7 20.6 28.4 26.2 18.3 10.2 7.0CTCI 10.7 19.9 27.5 24.8 15.7 10.4 7.2GFSI 14.0 28.1 39.0 40.2 34.9 23.1 9.0EMXI 16.5 31.9 43.4 44.3 35.3 22.9 6.8HCCA 9.2 15.8 20.6 18.0 9.0 5.5 7.2FSSE 9.6 19.2 28.4 27.5 18.8 13.4 20.0Forecasts 18 16 14 12 10 8 4 0HURRICANE JOVA 10Figure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023.HURRICANE JOVA 11Figure 2. Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September2023. Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates represent the Current Intensity at the nominal observation time. SATCONintensity estimates are from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. Dashed vertical lines correspond to0000 UTC.HURRICANE JOVA 12Figure 3. Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Jova, 4‒10 September 2023.Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates represent the Current Intensity at the nominal observation time. SATCON intensityestimates are from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. KZC P-W refers to pressure estimates derivedusing the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney pressure-wind relationship. Dashed vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC.HURRICANE JOVA 13Figure 4. Composites of 7-day tropical cyclone genesis areas depicted in NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlooks prior to the formation of Jovafor (a) all probabilistic genesis categories, (b) the low (<40%) category, (c) medium (40–60%) category, and (d) high (>60%)category. The location of genesis is indicated by the black star.HURRICANE JOVA 14Figure 5. (Upper left) NHC official intensity forecasts (dashed blue lines) from 0000 UTC 5 September to 1800 UTC 9 September. (Upperright) Interpolated HAFS-A intensity forecasts (dotted dark green), (lower left) LGEM (dotted dark magenta), and (lower right)ICON (dotted cyan) are shown for the same times. The best track is depicted by the black line with markers shown every 6hours.


⌘M








Home
Mobile Site
Text Version
RSS

Local Forecast

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

• ANALYSES & FORECASTS
  • Tropical Cyclone Products
  • Tropical Weather Outlooks
  • Marine Products
  • Audio/Podcasts
  • RSS Feeds
  • GIS Products
  • Alternate Formats
  • Tropical Cyclone Product Descriptions
  • Tropical Cyclone Product Examples
  • Marine Product Descriptions
• ▾
• DATA & TOOLS
  • Satellite Imagery
  • Radar Imagery
  • Aircraft Reconnaissance
  • Tropical Analysis Tools
  • Experimental Products
  • Lat/Lon Distance Calculator
  • Blank Tracking Maps
• ▾
• EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES
  • Be Prepared!
    NWS Hurricane
    Prep Week
  • NWS Hurricane Safety
  • Outreach Documents
  • Storm Surge
  • Watch/Warning Breakpoints
  • Climatology
  • Tropical Cyclone Names
  • Wind Scale
  • Records and Facts
  • Historical Hurricane Summaries
  • Forecast Models
  • NHC Publications
  • NHC Glossary
  • Acronyms
  • Frequent Questions
• ▾
• ARCHIVES
  • Tropical Cyclone Advisories
  • Tropical Weather Outlooks
  • Tropical Cyclone Reports
  • Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification
  • Atlantic Current Season Summary
  • E. Pacific Current Season Summary
  • C. Pacific Current Season Summary
  • NHC News Archive
  • Other Archives: HURDAT,
    Track Maps,
    Marine Products,
    and more
• ▾
• ABOUT
  • National Hurricane Center
  • Central Pacific
    Hurricane Center
  • Contact Us
• ▾
• SEARCH
  Search For
  NWS All NOAA
• ▾

Hurricane JOVA Advisory Archive​

---

Graphics Archive

---

Forecast Advisories	Public Advisories	Discussions	Wind Speed Probabilities
Monday September 4, 2023
1: 2100 UTC	1: 400 PM CDT 2: 1000 PM CDT	1: 400 PM CDT 2: 1000 PM CDT	1: 2100 UTC
Tuesday September 5, 2023
2: 0300 UTC 3: 0900 UTC 4: 1500 UTC 5: 2100 UTC	3: 300 AM MDT 4: 900 AM MDT 5: 300 PM MDT 6: 900 PM MDT	3: 300 AM MDT 4: 900 AM MDT 5: 300 PM MDT 6: 900 PM MDT	2: 0300 UTC 3: 0900 UTC 4: 1500 UTC 5: 2100 UTC
Wednesday September 6, 2023
6: 0300 UTC 7: 0900 UTC 8: 1500 UTC 9: 2100 UTC	7: 300 AM MDT 8: 900 AM MDT 9: 300 PM MDT 10: 900 PM MDT	7: 300 AM MDT 8: 900 AM MDT 9: 300 PM MDT 10: 900 PM MDT	6: 0300 UTC 7: 0900 UTC 8: 1500 UTC 9: 2100 UTC
Thursday September 7, 2023
10: 0300 UTC 11: 0900 UTC 12: 1500 UTC 13: 2100 UTC	11: 300 AM MDT 12: 800 AM PDT 13: 200 PM PDT 14: 800 PM PDT	11: 300 AM MDT 12: 800 AM PDT 13: 200 PM PDT 14: 800 PM PDT	10: 0300 UTC 11: 0900 UTC 12: 1500 UTC 13: 2100 UTC
Friday September 8, 2023
14: 0300 UTC 15: 0900 UTC 16: 1500 UTC 17: 2100 UTC	15: 200 AM PDT 16: 800 AM PDT 17: 200 PM PDT 18: 800 PM PDT	15: 200 AM PDT 16: 800 AM PDT 17: 200 PM PDT 18: 800 PM PDT	14: 0300 UTC 15: 0900 UTC 16: 1500 UTC 17: 2100 UTC
Saturday September 9, 2023
18: 0300 UTC 19: 0900 UTC 20: 1500 UTC 21: 2100 UTC	19: 200 AM PDT 20: 800 AM PDT 21: 200 PM PDT 22: 800 PM PDT	19: 200 AM PDT 20: 800 AM PDT 21: 200 PM PDT 22: 800 PM PDT	18: 0300 UTC 19: 0900 UTC 20: 1500 UTC 21: 2100 UTC
Sunday September 10, 2023
22: 0300 UTC 23: 0900 UTC 24: 1500 UTC 25: 2100 UTC	23: 200 AM PDT 24: 800 AM PDT 25: 200 PM PDT	23: 200 AM PDT 24: 800 AM PDT 25: 200 PM PDT	22: 0300 UTC 23: 0900 UTC 24: 1500 UTC 25: 2100 UTC

Quick Links and Additional Resources
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS
Tropical Cyclone Advisories
Tropical Weather Outlook
Audio/Podcasts
About Advisories

MARINE FORECASTS
Offshore Waters Forecasts
Gridded Forecasts
Graphicast
About Marine
SOCIAL MEDIA
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog:
"Inside the Eye"

HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
Preparedness Guide
Hurricane Hazards
Watches and Warnings
Marine Safety
Ready.gov Hurricanes | en Español
Weather-Ready Nation
Emergency Management Offices
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
NOAA Hurricane Research Division
Hurricane and Ocean Testbed (HOT)
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program

OTHER RESOURCES
Q & A with NHC
NHC/AOML Library Branch
NOAA: Hurricane FAQs
National Hurricane Operations Plan
WX4NHC Amateur Radio
NWS FORECAST OFFICES
Weather Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
Ocean Prediction Center
Local Forecast Offices

WORLDWIDE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERS
Canadian Hurricane Centre
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Other Tropical Cyclone Centers
WMO Severe Weather Info Centre

US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, FL, 33165
[email protected]
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
2525 Correa Rd
Suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
[email protected]
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities

View attachment 2733561 JFL Reply

 

[Xangsane]

0

 

[Deleted member 32485]

pat me

Y

 

[Xangsane]

Y

pat

 

[Zonar]

you all shit on @Xangsane for being a bot and AI, but he lifemogs this whole forum.

 

[Xangsane]

you all shit on @Xangsane for being a bot and AI, but he lifemogs this whole forum.

Thanks!

 

[IAMNOTANINCEL]

You're crazy, if you talk to normies IRL you know how NT people act. Nothing like this forum, not even reddit

but theyre not autistic, just eccentric, autism is rare especialy on some internet corner