CelestialEmpire
True Anglo-SSaxon⚡️⚡️
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2025
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How to insulate your career from LLMs that are still getting better relatively fast and haven't yet hit a bottleneck in terms of data / compute / LLM thresholds. (See Fable / Astra / Mythos).
To preface I am not a tech nerd who thinks muh AI will usher into a golden age and all humans will receive UBI and live in a every man is equal warless utopia. But I do think LLMs (Astra / Fable) are getting good enough soon (2-3 years) to the point that they have enough autonomy, initiative, judgement and "intelligence" to manage relatively complex, dynamic tasks for hours or days on end in a one-shot style. So most low-value add white collar labour will be replaced, barring regulatory barriers.
1. Careers with regulatory barriers to entry (law, medicine, finance, civil / aerospace engineering) - will take decades AFTER automation becomes good enough for regulatory shifts.
Surgeons, M&A bankers, nuclear power plant engineers, criminal lawyers, judges, etc will NOT be even partially replaced before 2060 at the least.
2. Family Connections in Business / Politics - helps to always secure your spot in an ever changing world.
3. Careers based on Level 2 Chaos systems. - Use of LLMs will become (are already) table stakes and won't change the existing hierarchy. Jane Street / Citadel / RenTech will use frontier models and burn through $500K in tokens per IP per month and use that data effectively while small funds on a budget of $5K/IP/month with Opus 5.1 will struggle. This includes finance, geopolitics, traffic control, etc. Level 1 Chaos systems will be automated away (weather prediction, mathematics, coding, basic physics).
4. Exposure to Emerging Verticals Based on LLMs - Areas not yet saturated and still prime for value add related to "AI". Such as working at robotics, defense / aerospace companies, etc. AI integration into missile guidance, automating complex production lines
To preface I am not a tech nerd who thinks muh AI will usher into a golden age and all humans will receive UBI and live in a every man is equal warless utopia. But I do think LLMs (Astra / Fable) are getting good enough soon (2-3 years) to the point that they have enough autonomy, initiative, judgement and "intelligence" to manage relatively complex, dynamic tasks for hours or days on end in a one-shot style. So most low-value add white collar labour will be replaced, barring regulatory barriers.
1. Careers with regulatory barriers to entry (law, medicine, finance, civil / aerospace engineering) - will take decades AFTER automation becomes good enough for regulatory shifts.
Surgeons, M&A bankers, nuclear power plant engineers, criminal lawyers, judges, etc will NOT be even partially replaced before 2060 at the least.
2. Family Connections in Business / Politics - helps to always secure your spot in an ever changing world.
3. Careers based on Level 2 Chaos systems. - Use of LLMs will become (are already) table stakes and won't change the existing hierarchy. Jane Street / Citadel / RenTech will use frontier models and burn through $500K in tokens per IP per month and use that data effectively while small funds on a budget of $5K/IP/month with Opus 5.1 will struggle. This includes finance, geopolitics, traffic control, etc. Level 1 Chaos systems will be automated away (weather prediction, mathematics, coding, basic physics).
4. Exposure to Emerging Verticals Based on LLMs - Areas not yet saturated and still prime for value add related to "AI". Such as working at robotics, defense / aerospace companies, etc. AI integration into missile guidance, automating complex production lines
