LXR
I ask you to judge me by the enemies I have made
- Joined
- Sep 18, 2025
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There is only one and one way alone for the average group of people to rise to the highest living standards amd that is by innovating. Innovating in even 1 industry can make the difference between middle income and high income. Taiwan is the best of example of that. Not to say that TSMC is the only company in Taiwan but it is the premier one.
Most of the crown jewels of engineering products and services are held by Western and East Asian countries, whereas the other regions either rely on labour arbitrage and/or natural resources.
The progress in Machine Learning is only going to increase the disparity between the innovators and the laggards. Expect a lot of European countries to fall behind others as austerity and regulations wrecks them, while China pulls ahead.
With that being said, here are my most unpopular predictions
1. Japan and South Korea are going to be the least affected countries by birth rate decline. SEA and smaller European regions are going to be decimated because they have 3rd world tier productivity and 0 cutting edge leverage
2. Bigger European economies are going to regress from their historically high living standards but still accelerate relative to middle income hotshots
3. SEA is entirely a gone case, the faster you take out your money, the better
4. China is going to lag behind other high income multi industrial powerhouses as it struggles to capture the scale of its production with automation while perenially lagging behind certain countries in innovation
5. Its over for India and Vietnam, globalisation fell out of practice and protectionism is ramping up, labour arbitrage will no longer work
6. Expect the USA to stay afloat at the top till the end of the half century
Most of the crown jewels of engineering products and services are held by Western and East Asian countries, whereas the other regions either rely on labour arbitrage and/or natural resources.
The progress in Machine Learning is only going to increase the disparity between the innovators and the laggards. Expect a lot of European countries to fall behind others as austerity and regulations wrecks them, while China pulls ahead.
With that being said, here are my most unpopular predictions
1. Japan and South Korea are going to be the least affected countries by birth rate decline. SEA and smaller European regions are going to be decimated because they have 3rd world tier productivity and 0 cutting edge leverage
2. Bigger European economies are going to regress from their historically high living standards but still accelerate relative to middle income hotshots
3. SEA is entirely a gone case, the faster you take out your money, the better
4. China is going to lag behind other high income multi industrial powerhouses as it struggles to capture the scale of its production with automation while perenially lagging behind certain countries in innovation
5. Its over for India and Vietnam, globalisation fell out of practice and protectionism is ramping up, labour arbitrage will no longer work
6. Expect the USA to stay afloat at the top till the end of the half century
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