Blackout.xl
Retired.
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You may of heard of the chaos happening in Belarus rn due to their recent election.
According to electoral observers, there was significant amounts of electoral fraud. As a result, there’s mass protests, mass arrests, riots and internet disruptions.
If you’re not caught up on the significance of Belarus, I’ll give you an explanation to get you back into the game.
Ever since of the fall of the USSR and eastern bloc in 1991, Ex soviet/eastern bloc states have slowly been swallowed up by the US, one by one.
Nations that were in the Warsaw Pact like Poland, Hungary, Albania, Czechoslovakia (doesn’t exist anymore but you get the point), Romania and Bulgaria are all in NATO or the EU. They have minimal ties to Russia and Putin as a result.
Some regions in Europe that were directly controlled by the USSR are also in the EU, like the Baltic states.
Ukraine in recent times has taken a step in the direction of being more integrated with the west. This was exemplified during their recent election cycle where they voted for a pro western anti corruption party and gave them a mandate to power.
The only stronghold of Russian influence left in all of Europe, is Belarus. There’s no other nation left in the region that will form an active partnership with Putin, over an active partnership with the west.
Belarus is being taken over by the west right now. The final push is happening, both the US and EU are heavily invested in getting the job done. The only option on the table for Putin is a full scale invasion and take over of Belarus, not unlike what he did with Crimea 6 years ago.
If Belarus crumbles under the pressure and submits to the demands of the US and EU, then Russia will have nothing between them and NATO.
The inevitable next step after the fall of Belarus would be the fall of Russia.
If Belarus falls then the Russian opposition will be able to use the situation as an example of why the Russian government isn’t invincible and how change can happen if the people “want it”. People who are anti Putin, or those who are disillusioned with the direction Russia is going in, will be much less likely to be silent and much more likely To vote against Putin and those aligned with him.
Some evidence of electoral fraud being leaked to the public after the election in this scenario, will be enough to trigger protests and riots. Which snowball into bigger protests and riots. The west of course will Fan the flames as much as they can and will give the opposition all the resources they need.
Putin is probably finished imo. People are dumb, sure. But they aren’t blind. Russian youth have full access to the internet and look towards the west with envy. They don’t care that Russia recovered from borderline collapse during the transition to capitalism from communism. They care that Russia isn’t more western, liberal and economically successful.
The only system that can avoid western subversion is Chinese styled authoritarianism alongside a highly collectivistic society. Putin probably will never put up a giant firewall like China has, neither will he engage in the same amount of surveillance or suppression.
Russian society is no where near as collectivistic as Chinese society anyway. Extreme collectivism, which allows for highly authoritarian systems to flourish, is a trait mostly exclusive to East Asians. White people are a much more individualistic group of people.
It was bound to happen sooner or later. I predict Russia will have a pro western government by the 2040’s at the latest. Pro Putin oldcels who grew up during communism and saw the collapse of the USSR first hand would be mostly dead by that point. Politically neutral or pro western youth will be the bulk of the voting bloc available. They won’t vote for people like Putin.
It is what it is
According to electoral observers, there was significant amounts of electoral fraud. As a result, there’s mass protests, mass arrests, riots and internet disruptions.
If you’re not caught up on the significance of Belarus, I’ll give you an explanation to get you back into the game.
Ever since of the fall of the USSR and eastern bloc in 1991, Ex soviet/eastern bloc states have slowly been swallowed up by the US, one by one.
Nations that were in the Warsaw Pact like Poland, Hungary, Albania, Czechoslovakia (doesn’t exist anymore but you get the point), Romania and Bulgaria are all in NATO or the EU. They have minimal ties to Russia and Putin as a result.
Some regions in Europe that were directly controlled by the USSR are also in the EU, like the Baltic states.
Ukraine in recent times has taken a step in the direction of being more integrated with the west. This was exemplified during their recent election cycle where they voted for a pro western anti corruption party and gave them a mandate to power.
The only stronghold of Russian influence left in all of Europe, is Belarus. There’s no other nation left in the region that will form an active partnership with Putin, over an active partnership with the west.
Belarus is being taken over by the west right now. The final push is happening, both the US and EU are heavily invested in getting the job done. The only option on the table for Putin is a full scale invasion and take over of Belarus, not unlike what he did with Crimea 6 years ago.
If Belarus crumbles under the pressure and submits to the demands of the US and EU, then Russia will have nothing between them and NATO.
The inevitable next step after the fall of Belarus would be the fall of Russia.
If Belarus falls then the Russian opposition will be able to use the situation as an example of why the Russian government isn’t invincible and how change can happen if the people “want it”. People who are anti Putin, or those who are disillusioned with the direction Russia is going in, will be much less likely to be silent and much more likely To vote against Putin and those aligned with him.
Some evidence of electoral fraud being leaked to the public after the election in this scenario, will be enough to trigger protests and riots. Which snowball into bigger protests and riots. The west of course will Fan the flames as much as they can and will give the opposition all the resources they need.
Putin is probably finished imo. People are dumb, sure. But they aren’t blind. Russian youth have full access to the internet and look towards the west with envy. They don’t care that Russia recovered from borderline collapse during the transition to capitalism from communism. They care that Russia isn’t more western, liberal and economically successful.
The only system that can avoid western subversion is Chinese styled authoritarianism alongside a highly collectivistic society. Putin probably will never put up a giant firewall like China has, neither will he engage in the same amount of surveillance or suppression.
Russian society is no where near as collectivistic as Chinese society anyway. Extreme collectivism, which allows for highly authoritarian systems to flourish, is a trait mostly exclusive to East Asians. White people are a much more individualistic group of people.
It was bound to happen sooner or later. I predict Russia will have a pro western government by the 2040’s at the latest. Pro Putin oldcels who grew up during communism and saw the collapse of the USSR first hand would be mostly dead by that point. Politically neutral or pro western youth will be the bulk of the voting bloc available. They won’t vote for people like Putin.
It is what it is
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