D
Deleted member 11126
Fuchsia
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2020
- Posts
- 11,722
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- 14,467
Short term (the next few months)
AI/tech
ChatGPT will continue to have more use cases there may be attempts to ban this technology by schools and governments as it allows cheating and other malicious potential. Already 50% of college classes could be passed with ChatGPT it may be restricted or outright banned in some countries.
Tech layoffs will continue right now a lot of Devs are not necessary and ride off the coat tails of existing innovations. As the recession continues boomers will be forced to make better judgement calls. This will be brutal but will stop eventually the remaining Devs will be much more efficient then the olds ones with new AI tech letting them do more work.
Geopolitics
Europe will continue to freeze this winter. War with Ukraine will likely not end and Russia will not come to an agreement with EU countries leading to rough gas crises that leave much of people without heating or even electricity.
Economics
Global recession with the hardest hit areas being Europe. The USA and Asia will be hit too but not in the same way. It is likely that the USA for a little while can stave any massive collapse. In Europe it is likely there will be thousands of deaths due to freezing temperatures or food shortages the long term costs will be very dire. Food shortages will also hit the Middle East and Africa as most of these countries bought grain from Eastern Europe (primarily from Ukraine) they will be outbid by Asian and Western countries as the global markets will have a shortage.
Long term
AI/tech
Automation will automate many WFH jobs customer service roles and it will start automating cars in the big cities on a small scale. For people with no real complex skills (half of people fall into this) they will have employment scares. Only physically complex or genuinely intellectually complex jobs will be safe from automation or the potential of automation in the year 2030.
This means for people who are intelligent and well versed in AI they will be able to do 100X more then they previously could with AI acting as surrogate employees.
Bitcoin or other cryptos may begin to resurface as major currency replacement. If the USA fails from "Reserve Currency" status then this is not unlikely. Otherwise the Euro or Chinese Yun will replace the dollar.
Grand scheme/geopolitics
The USA will likely lose reserve currency status. The American dollar will never be as powerful as it once was. The USA has been recklessly printing for the past 40 years the debt we have withstood is only possible because the USA is the global currency. It is unlikely the USA can keep this up due to inflation and instability. The US military supremacy is ending as we can see the Americans are no longer the sole superpowers China is a great power and Russia is becoming a great power once more too. There is now no one military that completely can overpower the others.
China will become a great nation surpassing the USA in science/AI militarily and in GDP. Asia in general will be hit less hard by any global recession. Western Europe will continue to stagnate. Eastern Europe will be in shambles but Russia's economy will probably grow more as time goes on. The USA will still be a great power but it will be no where what it once was. It will never even be close to what it once was with China and Russia being able to compete militarily and or economically.
AI/tech
ChatGPT will continue to have more use cases there may be attempts to ban this technology by schools and governments as it allows cheating and other malicious potential. Already 50% of college classes could be passed with ChatGPT it may be restricted or outright banned in some countries.
Tech layoffs will continue right now a lot of Devs are not necessary and ride off the coat tails of existing innovations. As the recession continues boomers will be forced to make better judgement calls. This will be brutal but will stop eventually the remaining Devs will be much more efficient then the olds ones with new AI tech letting them do more work.
Geopolitics
Europe will continue to freeze this winter. War with Ukraine will likely not end and Russia will not come to an agreement with EU countries leading to rough gas crises that leave much of people without heating or even electricity.
Economics
Global recession with the hardest hit areas being Europe. The USA and Asia will be hit too but not in the same way. It is likely that the USA for a little while can stave any massive collapse. In Europe it is likely there will be thousands of deaths due to freezing temperatures or food shortages the long term costs will be very dire. Food shortages will also hit the Middle East and Africa as most of these countries bought grain from Eastern Europe (primarily from Ukraine) they will be outbid by Asian and Western countries as the global markets will have a shortage.
Long term
AI/tech
Automation will automate many WFH jobs customer service roles and it will start automating cars in the big cities on a small scale. For people with no real complex skills (half of people fall into this) they will have employment scares. Only physically complex or genuinely intellectually complex jobs will be safe from automation or the potential of automation in the year 2030.
This means for people who are intelligent and well versed in AI they will be able to do 100X more then they previously could with AI acting as surrogate employees.
Bitcoin or other cryptos may begin to resurface as major currency replacement. If the USA fails from "Reserve Currency" status then this is not unlikely. Otherwise the Euro or Chinese Yun will replace the dollar.
Grand scheme/geopolitics
The USA will likely lose reserve currency status. The American dollar will never be as powerful as it once was. The USA has been recklessly printing for the past 40 years the debt we have withstood is only possible because the USA is the global currency. It is unlikely the USA can keep this up due to inflation and instability. The US military supremacy is ending as we can see the Americans are no longer the sole superpowers China is a great power and Russia is becoming a great power once more too. There is now no one military that completely can overpower the others.
China will become a great nation surpassing the USA in science/AI militarily and in GDP. Asia in general will be hit less hard by any global recession. Western Europe will continue to stagnate. Eastern Europe will be in shambles but Russia's economy will probably grow more as time goes on. The USA will still be a great power but it will be no where what it once was. It will never even be close to what it once was with China and Russia being able to compete militarily and or economically.
