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The breach of a huge dam on the front-line Dnipro river has muddied the picture for a much-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian invaders and threatens an environmental disaster for civilians living in the war zone.
Kyiv and Moscow have blamed each other for the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine that sent floods gushing towards surrounding towns and farmland and forced hundreds of civilians to flee on Tuesday.
The dam's collapse occurred just as Ukraine was poised to launch a counteroffensive and could complicate the advance of its forces in any assault, analysts said, though Kyiv has not divulged in which direction it plans to strike.
Bearing in mind Russia is on the strategic defensive and Ukraine on the strategic offensive, in the short term it's an advantage to Russia, definitely," said Ben Barry, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"It'll help the Russians until the water subsides because it makes it more difficult for Ukraine to do assault river crossings," he said in a phone interview.
The floodtide inundating the region will prevent the use of heavy weaponry such as tanks for at least a month, said Maciej Matysiak, security expert at the Stratpoints Foundation and ex-deputy chief of Polish military counter-intelligence.
"(This) creates a very good defending position for Russians who expect Ukrainian offensive activity,” Matysiak said.
But the wider damage to the environment and agriculture in one of the world's biggest grain exporters could be stark, further stressing global supply chains after the blockade of Ukrainian seaports last year.
Wheat prices surged more than 3% on Tuesday.
"The impact of the flooding we will feel not only for just weeks or even months, but a long period of time," Strilets said.
"The challenge is it's a very large dam actually, one of the largest reservoirs in the world," said Mohammad Heidarzadeh, a civil engineer at the University of Bath in Britain.
"...Based on experience of similar incidents worldwide, a very large area would be impacted and hazardous material spread all over the area that would impact the productivity of the agriculture."
Kyiv and Moscow have blamed each other for the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine that sent floods gushing towards surrounding towns and farmland and forced hundreds of civilians to flee on Tuesday.
The dam's collapse occurred just as Ukraine was poised to launch a counteroffensive and could complicate the advance of its forces in any assault, analysts said, though Kyiv has not divulged in which direction it plans to strike.
Bearing in mind Russia is on the strategic defensive and Ukraine on the strategic offensive, in the short term it's an advantage to Russia, definitely," said Ben Barry, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"It'll help the Russians until the water subsides because it makes it more difficult for Ukraine to do assault river crossings," he said in a phone interview.
The floodtide inundating the region will prevent the use of heavy weaponry such as tanks for at least a month, said Maciej Matysiak, security expert at the Stratpoints Foundation and ex-deputy chief of Polish military counter-intelligence.
"(This) creates a very good defending position for Russians who expect Ukrainian offensive activity,” Matysiak said.
But the wider damage to the environment and agriculture in one of the world's biggest grain exporters could be stark, further stressing global supply chains after the blockade of Ukrainian seaports last year.
Wheat prices surged more than 3% on Tuesday.
"The impact of the flooding we will feel not only for just weeks or even months, but a long period of time," Strilets said.
"The challenge is it's a very large dam actually, one of the largest reservoirs in the world," said Mohammad Heidarzadeh, a civil engineer at the University of Bath in Britain.
"...Based on experience of similar incidents worldwide, a very large area would be impacted and hazardous material spread all over the area that would impact the productivity of the agriculture."
