thecel
narrow-orbits brachy-skull ogre
- Joined
- May 16, 2020
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| Background Info About The Project |
|---|
| Looksmax.org currently has over 725,000 thread IDs. Every thread ID corresponds to a thread thatās posted, which exists now or got deleted. I scraped data from 10,500 randomly sampled forum threads from the 1st up to the 700,000th thread. The samples are split into 14 bins. Each bin contains 750 samples that represent a 50,000-thread-long segment of the forumās history. |
Question: Whatās the best time to post threads here? Is it better to post when more users are active, despite higher competition? Or is it better to post when fewer threads are being created, to have less competition?
The scraped data shows that thread creation peaks around 4:00 AM UTC.
This is 12:00 AM midnight in US Eastern Time, for the burgercels.
Question is: at what time do threads receive more replies?
- Should you post your threads near (the peak) 4:00 AM UTC to get more activity in your threads, even if it means your thread competes with more other new threads?
- Should you post your threads near (the valley) 16:00 / 4:00 PM UTC (12:00 PM noon EST) to face less competition from other threads, even if it means forum activity is lower?
Answer: To maximize the number of replies, post new threads at approx. 5:00 AM UTC, close to the peak time of thread creation.
This chart shows the total number of replies in all the scraped threads started in each hour:
The threads thatāre posted during peak activity hours receive the most replies.
You can see in this chart that the overall number of replies appears to gradually diminish over the years. Why? Keep reading.
The NoReplyPill Is Climbing
Older threads are more likely to have more replies. Age itself contributes this trend but only by a little bit because almost all threads go inactive after a few days max.
The trend isnāt due to old threads accumulating necroposts. More recently started threads get fewer replies in the 1st 24 hours after their postings:
From the (earliest) 1st 50K-threads bin to the (latest) 14th 50K-threads bin, the median number of replies per thread fell 50% from 12 to 6, and the mean fell 35.62% from 17.21 to 11.08.
It gets worse. See this brutal chart about threads that sadly get no replies:
The NoReplyPill grew tremendously in prevalence.
In the 1st 50K threads, only 3.01% of threads suffered from some form of NoReplyPill: either they got 0 replies or got OP-bumped before non-OP(s) replied. In the 14th 50K threads, 23.226% of threads suffered from some form of NoReplyPill. A 671.6% increase! Of the 23.225%, 11.111% of them got bumped by their OPs and still never got off the ground.
Itās over for the forum.
| Previous Thread In The Series āLooksmax.org Historical Data Explorationā |
š© The Forum UTTERLY DERAILED From Its Purpose | Looksmax.org Historical Data Exploration
Background Info About The Project Looksmax.org currently has over 725,000 thread IDs. Every thread ID corresponds to a thread thatās posted, which exists now or got deleted. I gathered data from 10,500 randomly sampled forum threads from the 1st up to the 700,000th thread. The samples are...
looksmax.org
