FrancoAgain
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Short answer: it’s pretty low, and it depends a lot on what population you’re talking about. I’ll give you a clean estimate so you see the order of magnitude.
Let’s assume a Western country average (US / Europe).
- Average adult male height ≈ 5'9" (175 cm)
- 5'11" (180 cm) is ~1 standard deviation above the mean
- That puts ~20–25% of adult males at 5'11" or taller
Now, your condition says males older than 15, not fully grown adults. That actually lowers the probability, because a chunk of 15–17 year olds haven’t reached final height yet.
A reasonable adjusted estimate:
- P(male ≥ 5'11" | age > 15) ≈ 18–20%
Let’s take 20% (0.20) to keep it simple.
Probability that all 4 randomly selected males meet that height:
0.204=0.00160.20^4 = 0.00160.204=0.0016
Final result
≈ 0.16% chance
That’s about 1 in 625.