why trading is inherently retarded

[Harold O'brien]

ideally you should be buying what you think is undervalued and shorting what you think is overvalued. you do not need any historical price data in order to do this, you only need to know what the price is right now. in fact, looking at unnecessary information is likely to confuse you or influence your behaviour so that it deviates from that of an entirely rational investor.

chasing momentum is just setting you up to get dumped on or short the bottom

 

[UglyGod360]

HODL

 

[bwrauycnee]

Just because you think it’s undervalued doesn’t mean the market thinks so too.

 

[Crusile]

ideally you should be buying what you think is undervalued and shorting what you think is overvalued. you do not need any historical price data in order to do this, you only need to know what the price is right now. in fact, looking at unnecessary information is likely to confuse you or influence your behaviour so that it deviates from that of an entirely rational investor.

chasing momentum is just setting you up to get dumped on or short the bottom

Asset prices are literally arbitrary and 95% of decision are made by historical price data. Millions of variables can effect price and its averaged out and represented in the chart data history. Index investing will eventually be debunked by the index going down for 50 yrs straight but itll take time

 

[Mastermind]

Many experienced traders admit they just go by gut feelings even if they know how to perform technical analysis and similiar advanced stuff

 

[Harold O'brien]

Asset prices are literally arbitrary and 95% of decision are made by historical price data. Millions of variables can effect price and its averaged out and represented in the chart data history. Index investing will eventually be debunked by the index going down for 50 yrs straight but itll take time

exactly, why the fuck would you try to predict something arbitrary

but in the long term prices will approximately reflect genuine value

 

[Harold O'brien]

Just because you think it’s undervalued doesn’t mean the market thinks so too.

it doesn't matter what the market thinks short term, eventually supply and demand will reach equilibrium reflecting value

 

[bwrauycnee]

it doesn't matter what the market thinks short term, eventually supply and demand will reach equilibrium reflecting value

Yeah but how would you know your fair value assessment equals the eventual equilibrium which is determined by market participants.

 

[Harold O'brien]

Yeah but how would you know your fair value assessment equals the eventual equilibrium which is determined by market participants.

I'm not saying just predict the future theory

but assessing assets this way is better than being a technical analysis tard

 

[bwrauycnee]

Most TA trends are bullshit but I think there’s merit in using fundamentals like Support and Resistance. That’s pretty much what the market makers use anyway.

 

[AO77777]

A simple strategy is just to follow the trend and buy when price has reached a percentile away from average.
The best strategies are simple and works well for holding a few days to a week most of the time. People who can program should look into algorithmic trading simple rules like this can easily be implemented on a computer and don't listen to people who say anything about it being random the market makers are humans and not perfect.

 

[Harold O'brien]

A simple strategy is just to follow the trend and buy when price has reached a percentile away from average.
The best strategies are simple and works well for holding a few days to a week most of the time. People who can program should look into algorithmic trading simple rules like this can easily be implemented on a computer and don't listen to people who say anything about it being random the market makers are humans and not perfect.

it's random in the same way a dice throw is random

 

[Lygodactylus]

Didn't read, high IQ post. Keep at it sport, investing is stupid

 

[Chinacurry]

Just because you think it’s undervalued doesn’t mean the market thinks so too.

but in the long run everything reaches fair value, that's why OP is right

 

[bwrauycnee]

but in the long run everything reaches fair value, that's why OP is right

So how long before Tesla reaches fair value?

 

[Harold O'brien]

So how long before Tesla reaches fair value?

Probably when competitors begin to catch up

 

[AlexBrown84]

🗑

 

[reborn]

If one thing I have learned that it doesn't matter what I think is over or undervalued. What matters is where the market is going.

 

[Harold O'brien]

If one thing I have learned that it doesn't matter what I think is over or undervalued. What matters is where the market is going.

Spoken like a true retard

 

[traveler]

legit

 

[goat2x]

Prices ultimately follow random walk thats why there are no studies showing that you can able to predict future price movements from historical ones

and thats why TA is bull shit with TA you are just trying to predict what will happen in the future based on what happened in the past

just look at someshit like an rsi which calculates a the average gains and the average loss devided / pasz14 days

but who cares if the rsi is oversold if its literally trying to predict a move from randomness? rsi can do what the fuck it wants it wont stop a whale or even anyone. I could literally try to make up my own indicator that says okay this is how much it gained this is how much it lost there fore this should happen , it wont be any helpful unless its statistically backtested on a large set of data (even then its kinda meh)

No wonder day traders are proven to lose 95% time just get under average monthly wage 4/ of the time and above average 1% of the time

espc now its shittier than ever.

Value investing atleast works better because then you are actually realying on something (your intuiton that a subject doesnt worth that much) its much better than to just look at fuckng indicators that look at random shit and relying on that

 

[Deleted member 18012]

Prices ultimately follow random walk thats why there are no studies showing that you can able to predict future price movements from historical ones

and thats why TA is bull shit with TA you are just trying to predict what will happen in the future based on what happened in the past

just look at someshit like an rsi which calculates a the average gains and the average loss devided / pasz14 days

but who cares if the rsi is oversold if its literally trying to predict a move from randomness? rsi can do what the fuck it wants it wont stop a whale or even anyone. I could literally try to make up my own indicator that says okay this is how much it gained this is how much it lost there fore this should happen , it wont be any helpful unless its statistically backtested on a large set of data (even then its kinda meh)

No wonder day traders are proven to lose 95% time just get under average monthly wage 4/ of the time and above average 1% of the time

espc now its shittier than ever.

Value investing atleast works better because then you are actually realying on something (your intuiton that a subject doesnt worth that much) its much better than to just look at fuckng indicators that look at random shit and relying on that

trading nudes is the only thing to care about