Will Bitcoin ever reach $300,000 ?

[reborn]

It has been said that while a single person is often wrong a group of people tends to be much better when it comes to predictions. So I thought let's make a poll to see what the result is. It may help to predict how Bitcoin will develop.

 

[RIPPED IRL]

ofc, didnt u see that btc is only up ? same with spx

 

[reborn]

ofc, didnt u see that btc is only up ? same with spx

Yeah because money is losing it's value and the amount of it is increasing constantly so the SPX is going up of course. But the SPX is not like Bitcoin. First it has been established for a century. Second it grows at a relatively moderate rate. Third the price needs to be at least somewhat connected to the revenue of that company. With Bitcoin it is different as the price is completely arbitrary. You may say it's supply is limited but it's demand is also totally unclear. If the hype ends tomorrow demand may drop to zero because demand is entirely artificial.

 

[RIPPED IRL]

okay brother

 

[randomuser2407]

Nobody really knows

 

[reborn]

View attachment 1580987
okay brother

I am aware of it and it doesn't mean shit. It could drop to zero tomorrow and never come back up.

 

[Harold O'brien]

most likely
I would say between a few years and decades though. somewhere in the ballpark of 5-10 years

 

[dwohh]

most likely
I would say between a few years and decades though. somewhere in the ballpark of 5-10 years

so u think someone will be using bitcoin in 10 years+ depsite its obivous speed fualts

OMEGA LOL

 

[Harold O'brien]

so u think someone will be using bitcoin in 10 years+ depsite its obivous speed fualts

OMEGA LOL

if you think bitcoin use case is transactions you are retarded

stick with xrp you crypto midwit

 

[reborn]

if you think bitcoin use case is transactions you are retarded

stick with xrp you crypto midwit

Bitcoin does have a lot of real issues though:

1. The power consumption is a concern to environmentalist whackjobs. Sure the regular banking system uses more power but environmentalist whackjobs don't get it and if governments tell them Bitcoin is to blame they believe it because they are idiots.

2. The price is 100% arbitrary. There is no standard at all by which you could say that Bitcoin is over or undervalued.

3. Bitcoin is an ass itch to governments and they have a lot of power i.e. they can tax it to death or make it illegal to own in which case you can still own it but it will drive the price down. Even just governments talking about Bitcoin tends to drive the price down. And trust me if they really went all in on the fight against Bitcoin then it would be too much of a hassle to be worth it.

4. If I die nobody in my family will be able to transfer the money out. Like I explained it to them but they just won't get it. They will be screwed over trying to find somebody to help them.

5. It just can't be relied on. Tomorrow it could be worth 10% of what it is today.

 

[dwohh]

if you think bitcoin use case is transactions you are retarded

stick with xrp you crypto midwit

no one will want ot use iot for some "stable coin" reason

 

[dwohh]

this isnt gold it simply wont last

 

[Harold O'brien]

Bitcoin does have a lot of real issues though:

1. The power consumption is a concern to environmentalist whackjobs. Sure the regular banking system uses more power but environmentalist whackjobs don't get it and if governments tell them Bitcoin is to blame they believe it because they are idiots.

2. The price is 100% arbitrary. There is no standard at all by which you could say that Bitcoin is over or undervalued.

3. Bitcoin is an ass itch to governments and they have a lot of power i.e. they can tax it to death or make it illegal to own in which case you can still own it but it will drive the price down. Even just governments talking about Bitcoin tends to drive the price down. And trust me if they really went all in on the fight against Bitcoin then it would be too much of a hassle to be worth it.

4. If I die nobody in my family will be able to transfer the money out. Like I explained it to them but they just won't get it. They will be screwed over trying to find somebody to help them.

5. It just can't be relied on. Tomorrow it could be worth 10% of what it is today.

1. yeah pow is infinitely better. but the way the energy is produced is the problem, not bitcoin

2. you can say the same thing about any asset

3. governments (of non-shitholes) aren't going to ban bitcoin, it is past that point already

4. you will leave them your key. nobody has that shit memorised, it exists somewhere

5. you can say the same thing about any asset

 

[Harold O'brien]

no one will want ot use iot for some "stable coin" reason

you miss the point

it is a decentralised store of value with a fixed supply

stable coins aren't a replacement because a) they don't have a fixed supply and b) their value is dependent upon a centralised entity. for example the central bank can devalue the shit out of it with monetary policy. the point is no centralised entity should have that much control over it

this isnt gold it simply wont last

it is better than gold because it is more efficient. this point is analogous to advocating for physical cash over debit cards

 

[dwohh]

you miss the point

it is a decentralised store of value with a fixed supply

stable coins aren't a replacement because a) they don't have a fixed supply and b) their value is dependent upon a centralised entity. for example the central bank can devalue the shit out of it with monetary policy. the point is no centralised entity should have that much control over it


it is better than gold because it is more efficient. you argument is analogous to advocating for physical cash over debit cards

there are a million reasons people wont use iot that i dont have time to talk about

one of them is new feautres that wil need with coming paradigme shift of tehcngogogogo

 

[Harold O'brien]

there are a million reasons people wont use iot that i dont have time to talk about

one of them is new feautres that wil need with coming paradigme shift of tehcngogogogo

that's convenient

list some of them

 

[reborn]

1. yeah pow is infinitely better. but the way the energy is produced is the problem, not bitcoin

2. you can say the same thing about any asset

3. governments (of non-shitholes) aren't going to ban bitcoin, it is past that point already

4. you will leave them your key. nobody has that shit memorised, it exists somewhere

5. you can say the same thing about any asset

No with traditional stocks for example it is different. If a single stock of Microsoft was worth a trillion Dollars tomorrow one could say that this price makes no sense since the price/revenue ratio is totally out of hand and much better with other companies. However, if the price of Bitcoin went to a trillion Dollars tomorrow you could not say that it is overpriced. As there is no such thing as revenue etc. that you could measure the price with. And that is Bitcoin's biggest issue IMO.

 

[Harold O'brien]

No with traditional stocks for example it is different. If a single stock of Microsoft was worth a trillion Dollars tomorrow one could say that this price makes no sense since the price/revenue ratio is totally out of hand and much better with other companies. However, if the price of Bitcoin went to a trillion Dollars tomorrow you could not say that it is overpriced. As there is no such thing as revenue etc. that you could measure the price with. And that is Bitcoin's biggest issue IMO.

just look at the PE ratio of something like tesla. even in tradfi valuation is a meme

price is simply where asks meet bids.

 

[reborn]

just look at the PE ratio of something like tesla. even in tradfi valuation is a meme

price is simply where asks meet bids.

See but you chose Tesla as an example because you can tell that their PE ratio is too high. So you actually confirmed my point. The PE ratio does help to identify overpriced stock which Tesla certainly is. And when it comes to Bitcoin there is nothing at all by which you could measure it.

 

[Harold O'brien]

See but you chose Tesla as an example because you can tell that their PE ratio is too high. So you actually confirmed my point. The PE ratio does help to identify overpriced stock which Tesla certainly is. And when it comes to Bitcoin there is nothing at all by which you could measure it.

but what is "too high". what is a good PE ratio? no one has a fucking clue they just compare it to peers. why shouldn't all other stocks have a higher PE like tesla?

 

[Peachy]

The only crypto you should hold is Monero - not for investment but for its actual purpose of use.

 

[Alt Number 3]

to get there, btc marketcap must exceed apple's marketcap by over 1 trillion dollars. is this possible in our lifetime?

 

[reborn]

but what is "too high". what is a good PE ratio? no one has a fucking clue they just compare it to peers. why shouldn't all other stocks have a higher PE like tesla?

If values such as the PE ratio get completely out of hand to a point where it makes no sense at all then the company will be unable to provide sufficient dividend payouts which will make the investment less attractive than available alternatives. Likewise it becomes more difficult for them to provide data that will cause the price to increase further. I.e. if a company has made $10.000 Dollars of additional revenue this year it hardly justifies investors to invest another 20 billion Dollars in that company. The numbers do not match anymore and everybody can see that.

 

[Harold O'brien]

If values such as the PE ratio get completely out of hand to a point where it makes no sense at all then the company will be unable to provide sufficient dividend payouts which will make the investment less attractive than available alternatives. Likewise it becomes more difficult for them to provide data that will cause the price to increase further. I.e. if a company has made $10.000 Dollars of additional revenue this year it hardly justifies investors to invest another 20 billion Dollars in that company. The numbers do not match anymore and everybody can see that.

cash dividends don't depend on stock price?

it becomes more difficult for them to provide data? wtf you on about. it's pretty clear you are grasping at straws looking for reasons that don't exist.

the truth is all this shit is arbitrary. yeah it might look nice for a investor powerpoint presentation when you give all these statistics but at the end of the day they don't mean shit.

again look at tesla, overvalued by all of these "indicators" yet everyone keeps buying the shit

 

[reborn]

cash dividends don't depend on stock price?

it becomes more difficult for them to provide data? wtf you on about. it's pretty clear you are grasping at straws looking for reasons that don't exist.

the truth is all this shit is arbitrary. yeah it might look nice for a investor powerpoint presentation when you give all these statistics but at the end of the day they don't mean shit.

again look at tesla, overvalued by all of these "indicators" yet everyone keeps buying the shit

Well for example VW is paying about a billion Dollars a year to it's shareholders. To give you an extreme example if some mom and pop shop creating 50K of revenue per year was valued at 200 billion Dollars then how exactly are they going to afford to pay out a billion Dollars of dividend payouts when they only have 50K of yearly revenue. Instead of dividends some companies decide to keep the money and not pay dividends at all. However as a result of keeping and investing that money their company becomes more valuable and the stock price increases. Then investors make money this way instead. But how would a mom and pop shop invest a billion Dollars to further increase their stock value if all they make is 50K of revenue per year. This shows that a 50K per year mom and pop shop would not be valued at 200 billion Dollars on the stock market or if it was then at the very least it would be expected to grow rapidly to justify the price.

 

[Harold O'brien]

Well for example VW is paying about a billion Dollars a year to it's shareholders. To give you an extreme example if some mom and pop shop creating 50K of revenue per year was valued at 200 billion Dollars then how exactly are they going to afford to pay out a billion Dollars of dividend payouts when they only have 50K of yearly revenue. Instead of dividends some companies decide to keep the money and not pay dividends at all. However as a result of keeping and investing that money their company becomes more valuable and the stock price increases. Then investors make money this way instead. But how would a mom and pop shop invest a billion Dollars to further increase their stock value if all they make is 50K of revenue per year. This shows that a 50K per year mom and pop shop would not be valued at 200 billion Dollars on the stock market or if it was then at the very least it would be expected to grow rapidly to justify the price.

Why would they have to pay billions of dollars as a dividend payout? They can pay however much they want, dividends are not an obligation.

 

[reborn]

Why would they have to pay billions of dollars as a dividend payout? They can pay however much they want, dividends are not an obligation.

Yes instead of dividend payouts you can reinvest all the money and make sure the business keeps growing which will then drive up the stock price. Some companies pay out dividends and others focus on getting their stock price up by reinvesting. But in both cases the stock holders expect some kind of return of investment. And if the business does not catch up with the stock price the growth is going to slow down eventually. The stock price is always connected to the company's success at least to some degree. But with Bitcoin it is entirely and 100% arbitrary.

 

[Pakicel]

If I die

But you will be @reborn.

 

[Harold O'brien]

Yes instead of dividend payouts you can reinvest all the money and make sure the business keeps growing which will then drive up the stock price. Some companies pay out dividends and others focus on getting their stock price up by reinvesting. But in both cases the stock holders expect some kind of return of investment. And if the business does not catch up with the stock price the growth is going to slow down eventually. The stock price is always connected to the company's success at least to some degree. But with Bitcoin it is entirely and 100% arbitrary.

Stop overexplaining things you have a poor understanding of, it's frustrating

Dividends are not obligations. So people buy with expectations of a return on investment from either a) company choosing to pay dividends or b) increase in stock price. Exact same thing with bitcoin but no dividends.

 

[NeedToSucceed]

i dont think so because there are more effective and more environmentally friendly crypto out there

 

[Harold O'brien]

i dont think so because there are more effective and more environmentally friendly crypto out there

Other cryptos aren't competing with bitcoin.

Bitcoin is competing with gold and the gold industry is worse for the environment

 

[Chinacurry]

but what is "too high". what is a good PE ratio? no one has a fucking clue they just compare it to peers. why shouldn't all other stocks have a higher PE like tesla?

no, PE ratios are grounded in 'how much am I willing to pay for a dollar of earnings'. that fact is lost looking at faang or Tesla cos they are essentially still.in.high growth mode, so use all.their profits for r and d and growth, not to pay dividends, but eventually most companies will, hell eve n apple and tencent pay a very small dividend now, also US has the issue of weird dividend taxation.

look at other indexes, eg FTSE or Hang Seng, where most companies are well established, and they pay dividends.

once u realise this u can see there is a level of PE that is too high cos it means with a reasonable coverage ratio, payout ratio, the dividend I get can be bettered with a risk free bond.

with current rates we generally say for tech PE of 20 is fair, for non tech, 15, fr banks 6-10

 

[reborn]

Stop overexplaining things you have a poor understanding of, it's frustrating

Dividends are not obligations. So people buy with expectations of a return on investment from either a) company choosing to pay dividends or b) increase in stock price. Exact same thing with bitcoin but no dividends.

But the stock price increases in relation to the increase of the value of the company at least to some degree. When it comes to Bitcoin the price increases for no reason whatsoever. Why do you keep acting like you don't get the difference?

 

[Harold O'brien]

no, PE ratios are grounded in 'how much am I willing to pay for a dollar of earnings'. that fact is lost looking at faang or Tesla cos they are essentially still.in.high growth mode, so use all.their profits for r and d and growth, not to pay dividends, but eventually most companies will. also US has the issue of weird dividend taxation.

look at other indexes, eg FTSE or Hang Seng, where most companies are well established, and they pay dividends.

once u realise this u can see there is a level of PE that is too high cos it means with a reasonable coverage ratio, payout ratio, the dividend I get can be bettered with a risk free bond.

with current rates we generally say for tech PE of 20 is fair, for non tech, 15, fr banks 6-10

muh arbitrary rule works except when it doesn't

Like I said dividends are not obligations. All these fundamental indicators are "guidelines" that investors follow only because they know others will follow them too. It is more game theory than valuation

 

[fuggg]

its gonna hit 6 million per coin tomorrow

 

[Harold O'brien]

But the stock price increases in relation to the increase of the value of the company at least to some degree. When it comes to Bitcoin the price increases for no reason whatsoever. Why do you keep acting like you don't get the difference?

Perhaps but there is no reason for it to is my point

Imagine bitcoin as a tech stock without a company. As the techs adoption increases so does it's valuation

 

[spark]

no its going to 0

 

[Chinacurry]

muh arbitrary rule works except when it doesn't

Like I said dividends are not obligations. All these fundamental indicators are "guidelines" that investors follow only because they know others will follow them too. It is more game theory than valuation

they are not obligations but if a company.cant offer either dividends, or growth (including through buy backs ) people wont buy the stock.

sure stocks are.subjected to huge speculation, but in many of these cases a crazy PE ratio for truly nascent companies is justified by PEG ratio.

point is people have a yard stick, which is the price I pay for a dollar of profit, or even the precursor to that the price I pay for a dollar of future profit assuming certain future margins, and growth.

you can.always call out tulips or south sea bubble, or even Tesla now.(lets face it, the price reflects a bunch of.stuff like starlink or SpaceX being in there too) as having flawed pricing, and you're right, but most stocks are not like that. with crypto u are in pure price discovery mode, no one knows fair value.

 

[Harold O'brien]

they are not obligations but if a company.cant offer either dividends, or growth (including through buy backs ) people wont buy the stock.

sure stocks are.subjected to huge speculation, but in many of these cases a crazy PE ratio for truly nascent companies is justified by PEG ratio.

point is people have a yard stick, which is the price I pay for a dollar of profit, or even the precursor to that the price I pay for a dollar of future profit assuming certain future margins, and growth.

you can.always call out tulips or south sea bubble, or even Tesla now.(lets face it, the price reflects a bunch of.stuff like starlink or SpaceX being in there too) as having flawed pricing, and you're right, but most stocks are not like that. with crypto u are in pure price discovery mode, no one knows fair value.

But people have no idea idea about this, it's just guessing. So valuations are subjective

Non quantitative valuations from intuition and company fundamentals are worth a thousand autistic stats. Like the dividend discount model and capm are legit dogshit, cant believe people actually use this crap

 

[Alexanderr]

Hopefully not before I got a sizeable portion of it first.