PsychoDsk
Just a guy | ᴀʀᴄʜɪᴛᴇᴄᴛ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴀᴛᴇ
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update on my last serious thread
https://looksmax.org/threads/btc-131k-alt-rally-before-summer.1427166/
supercycle (real)
BTC
After being bearish since october/november, it's time to be bullish again. Before summer I really believed alts looked amazing to go into their full risk-on mode paired with btc. BTC performed incredibly well, a little off my target of 131k but I'm not a wizard init. Altcoins performed decent, keyword DECENT. Not a full risk on euphoric rally but also not no rally. There were some nice plays but nothing out of the ordinary.
Since we finally have found a bottom on btc, I'm allowed to say the top isn't in yet.
BTC always has 3 'local' tops during a bull-cycle.
First one is paired with initial euphoria and one sector craze (last year memecoins), the next local top, the one we've had back in august/september is the institutional one. The one where smart money and satoshi era whales sell their bags to institutions. This has always happened but it's the first time ever where it showed such a strong uptrend and eventually made a new ath. This was a rally solely caused by institutional FOMO willing to pay any price to gather as much coins as possible.
that's also why the PA was so horrendous and choppy at ATHs. usually at definitive tops, we form an ath and immediately deviate back to lower prices. On this institutional local top we distributed for months with sideways chop.
Look at the length and thickness of this mf. Just not a single clear move, straight choppiness.
With that being said, BTC isn't over one bit. We still have our euphoric top to form, the one that comes as quick as it goes. Keep in mind, we're talking Q1-2 2026, we can still chop some more at the lows here before eventually rallying into an ATH.
Eth on the other hand did have an incredible move, also caused by institutional FOMO and treasury companies. Ofcourse since it's eth it can't stay at higher prices for a month without completely nuking, which is what we did the past few months. BUT, since we have now found a bottom (choppiness still allowed), it's time to look for higher prices again once this chop sorts itself out.
HTF for alts and ETH
still looks good and on plan. The only thing that really fucked my mind and made me doubt myself this past year is the fact that altcoins have done absolutely nothing. Charts have looked good numerous times, setups have been clear and ready but there was no follow-through on not 1 setup.
This just further facilitated the fact that altcoins do need a better macro economical environment i.e QE and lower rates. Which if you didn't know is happening currently. QT ended first of december and we're on route to have numerous rate cuts eoy and 2026.
They better give us the craziest altseason to date ngl
Also btc dominance looks really good for the altcoiners betweeen us. We had a small rally over summer but nothing compared to an actual btcd breakdown and eth outperformance.
EQUITIES
Couldn't be simpler, they'll just keep going up until something breaks again.
There's NO recession, there's no bond market blow up, QE is starting somewhere soon, ...
All good signs for equities to just keep moving upwards for the near future since it's the only thing they care about.
OVERALL
Nothing much to add, higher tbh
global liquidity up -> BTC up
Easing economy -> alts up
BTC 144k
ETH 6-6.5K, possibly 8K
SOL 334, possibly 440
https://looksmax.org/threads/btc-131k-alt-rally-before-summer.1427166/
supercycle (real)
BTC
After being bearish since october/november, it's time to be bullish again. Before summer I really believed alts looked amazing to go into their full risk-on mode paired with btc. BTC performed incredibly well, a little off my target of 131k but I'm not a wizard init. Altcoins performed decent, keyword DECENT. Not a full risk on euphoric rally but also not no rally. There were some nice plays but nothing out of the ordinary.
Since we finally have found a bottom on btc, I'm allowed to say the top isn't in yet.
BTC always has 3 'local' tops during a bull-cycle.
First one is paired with initial euphoria and one sector craze (last year memecoins), the next local top, the one we've had back in august/september is the institutional one. The one where smart money and satoshi era whales sell their bags to institutions. This has always happened but it's the first time ever where it showed such a strong uptrend and eventually made a new ath. This was a rally solely caused by institutional FOMO willing to pay any price to gather as much coins as possible.
that's also why the PA was so horrendous and choppy at ATHs. usually at definitive tops, we form an ath and immediately deviate back to lower prices. On this institutional local top we distributed for months with sideways chop.
Look at the length and thickness of this mf. Just not a single clear move, straight choppiness.
With that being said, BTC isn't over one bit. We still have our euphoric top to form, the one that comes as quick as it goes. Keep in mind, we're talking Q1-2 2026, we can still chop some more at the lows here before eventually rallying into an ATH.
Eth on the other hand did have an incredible move, also caused by institutional FOMO and treasury companies. Ofcourse since it's eth it can't stay at higher prices for a month without completely nuking, which is what we did the past few months. BUT, since we have now found a bottom (choppiness still allowed), it's time to look for higher prices again once this chop sorts itself out.
HTF for alts and ETH
still looks good and on plan. The only thing that really fucked my mind and made me doubt myself this past year is the fact that altcoins have done absolutely nothing. Charts have looked good numerous times, setups have been clear and ready but there was no follow-through on not 1 setup.
This just further facilitated the fact that altcoins do need a better macro economical environment i.e QE and lower rates. Which if you didn't know is happening currently. QT ended first of december and we're on route to have numerous rate cuts eoy and 2026.
They better give us the craziest altseason to date ngl
Also btc dominance looks really good for the altcoiners betweeen us. We had a small rally over summer but nothing compared to an actual btcd breakdown and eth outperformance.
EQUITIES
Couldn't be simpler, they'll just keep going up until something breaks again.
There's NO recession, there's no bond market blow up, QE is starting somewhere soon, ...
All good signs for equities to just keep moving upwards for the near future since it's the only thing they care about.
OVERALL
Nothing much to add, higher tbh
global liquidity up -> BTC up
Easing economy -> alts up
BTC 144k
ETH 6-6.5K, possibly 8K
SOL 334, possibly 440
