BIG update on crypto and equities

[PsychoDsk]

update on my last serious thread
https://looksmax.org/threads/btc-131k-alt-rally-before-summer.1427166/

supercycle (real)

BTC

After being bearish since october/november, it's time to be bullish again. Before summer I really believed alts looked amazing to go into their full risk-on mode paired with btc. BTC performed incredibly well, a little off my target of 131k but I'm not a wizard init. Altcoins performed decent, keyword DECENT. Not a full risk on euphoric rally but also not no rally. There were some nice plays but nothing out of the ordinary.

Since we finally have found a bottom on btc, I'm allowed to say the top isn't in yet.
BTC always has 3 'local' tops during a bull-cycle.
First one is paired with initial euphoria and one sector craze (last year memecoins), the next local top, the one we've had back in august/september is the institutional one. The one where smart money and satoshi era whales sell their bags to institutions. This has always happened but it's the first time ever where it showed such a strong uptrend and eventually made a new ath. This was a rally solely caused by institutional FOMO willing to pay any price to gather as much coins as possible.

that's also why the PA was so horrendous and choppy at ATHs. usually at definitive tops, we form an ath and immediately deviate back to lower prices. On this institutional local top we distributed for months with sideways chop.

Look at the length and thickness of this mf. Just not a single clear move, straight choppiness.

With that being said, BTC isn't over one bit. We still have our euphoric top to form, the one that comes as quick as it goes. Keep in mind, we're talking Q1-2 2026, we can still chop some more at the lows here before eventually rallying into an ATH.

Eth on the other hand did have an incredible move, also caused by institutional FOMO and treasury companies. Ofcourse since it's eth it can't stay at higher prices for a month without completely nuking, which is what we did the past few months. BUT, since we have now found a bottom (choppiness still allowed), it's time to look for higher prices again once this chop sorts itself out.

HTF for alts and ETH

still looks good and on plan. The only thing that really fucked my mind and made me doubt myself this past year is the fact that altcoins have done absolutely nothing. Charts have looked good numerous times, setups have been clear and ready but there was no follow-through on not 1 setup.
This just further facilitated the fact that altcoins do need a better macro economical environment i.e QE and lower rates. Which if you didn't know is happening currently. QT ended first of december and we're on route to have numerous rate cuts eoy and 2026.
They better give us the craziest altseason to date ngl

Also btc dominance looks really good for the altcoiners betweeen us. We had a small rally over summer but nothing compared to an actual btcd breakdown and eth outperformance.

EQUITIES

Couldn't be simpler, they'll just keep going up until something breaks again.
There's NO recession, there's no bond market blow up, QE is starting somewhere soon, ...
All good signs for equities to just keep moving upwards for the near future since it's the only thing they care about.

OVERALL

Nothing much to add, higher tbh
global liquidity up -> BTC up
Easing economy -> alts up

BTC 144k
ETH 6-6.5K, possibly 8K
SOL 334, possibly 440

 

[Wexilarious]

You need to use logic of guys that rule this world that draw any price of cryptocurrency they want, gigadrop all cryptocurrency except ETH, to make everyone poorer + strengthen faith in cryptocurrency, which is tied to real currency

I could be wrong here, as I don't quite understand the logic, but let's see what happens

P.S., I don't watch any videos about cryptocurrency, I don't follow the market, and I don't use it myself

 

[PsychoDsk]

You need to use logic of guys that rule this world that draw any price of cryptocurrency they want, gigadrop all cryptocurrency except ETH, to make everyone poorer + strengthen faith in cryptocurrency, which is tied to real currency

I could be wrong here, as I don't quite understand the logic, but let's see what happens

P.S., I don't watch any videos about cryptocurrency, I don't follow the market, and I don't use it myself

it's algorithm based

BTC goes up --> eth goes up almost instantly
BTC has an agressive move down --> eth has one in milliseconds after btc
sometimes btc is stronger, sometimes eth is stronger

There's not 1 asset that goes up while others go down (without manipulation)

 

[wastedspermcel]

dnrd someone said it once I'll say it again, BigTrannyCock is cope

 

[PsychoDsk]

dnrd someone said it once I'll say it again, BigTrannyCock is cope

Until fiat is brought on-chain and your financial status is completely reliant on cryptocurrency

 

[Leffatssklov]

can you give me 100 usd in btc please
B2HFHsJUvJz8F2QJPRM7Z6KJruUPAoehgTt6RjudQ4vy

 

[cargo70]

Good thread, reading later.

 

[xevuxia]

it's algorithm based

BTC goes up --> eth goes up almost instantly
BTC has an agressive move down --> eth has one in milliseconds after btc
sometimes btc is stronger, sometimes eth is stronger

There's not 1 asset that goes up while others go down (without manipulation)

Man what you think what should i buy i lost my 2/3 porfolio ?

 

[eduardkoopman]

i'm very doubtfull.
crypto market gives mixed signals. Got no clue if we entered a bear period, or a higher bottom in a continuing uptrend. Or maybe we go in a side-way range for the next months.

 

[PsychoDsk]

i'm very doubtfull.
crypto market gives mixed signals. Got no clue if we entered a bear period, or a higher bottom in a continuing uptrend. Or maybe we go in a side-way range for the next months.

it does
some on-chain indicators like the power curve and short term holder capitulation point towards this being a bear market bottom, which is odd since this was quick and not even close to the usual bear market % wise.

and then overall structure you could say, this is a complacency rally before going in a true bearmarket but that wouldn't make sense because of the economy and sentiment

very very weird place for crypto in general but I'm of the opinion we get one more euphoric leg on everything because that's what my macro plan is still pointing towards. Also the russel2000 just look otherworldly for price discovery which is THE sign for risk on across the board

 

[eduardkoopman]

it does
some on-chain indicators like the power curve and short term holder capitulation point towards this being a bear market bottom, which is odd since this was quick and not even close to the usual bear market % wise.

and then overall structure you could say, this is a complacency rally before going in a true bearmarket but that wouldn't make sense because of the economy and sentiment

very very weird place for crypto in general but I'm of the opinion we get one more euphoric leg on everything because that's what my macro plan is still pointing towards. Also the russel2000 just look otherworldly for price discovery which is THE sign for risk on across the board

could be yeah.
maybe institutional investors haveing entered the Bitcoin/crypto sphere. Maybe they will cuck euphoric leg. As they are very profit taking, at certain gains levels. And rebalancing, if they have set that Bitcoin can only be 1% of their portfolio. They probabky behave alot different, contra, of all the common crypto guys that bought crypto in previous times/cycles

 

[PsychoDsk]

could be yeah.
maybe institutional investors haveing entered the Bitcoin/crypto sphere. Maybe they will cuck euphoric leg. As they are very profit taking, at certain gains levels. And rebalancing, if they have set that Bitcoin can only be 1% of their portfolio. They probabky behave alot different, contra, of all the common crypto guys that bought crypto in previous times/cycles

meh it just usually indicates less harsh bearmarkets, don't underestimate retail fomo
The distributive top we just had were just og's dumping on treasuries and institutions, many now in a loss which is just a sign they'll induce euphoria at some point in the near future to keep price from ruining their balance sheet

It's actually quite logical and repetitive, it's just the first cycle where this institutional leg made new ath's. Smart money and og's dumped into institutions, next top will be institutions dumping into retail fomo, which is the 'final cycle top' if we look at previous data

 

[xevuxia]

update on my last serious thread
https://looksmax.org/threads/btc-131k-alt-rally-before-summer.1427166/

supercycle (real)

BTC

After being bearish since october/november, it's time to be bullish again. Before summer I really believed alts looked amazing to go into their full risk-on mode paired with btc. BTC performed incredibly well, a little off my target of 131k but I'm not a wizard init. Altcoins performed decent, keyword DECENT. Not a full risk on euphoric rally but also not no rally. There were some nice plays but nothing out of the ordinary.

Since we finally have found a bottom on btc, I'm allowed to say the top isn't in yet.
BTC always has 3 'local' tops during a bull-cycle.
First one is paired with initial euphoria and one sector craze (last year memecoins), the next local top, the one we've had back in august/september is the institutional one. The one where smart money and satoshi era whales sell their bags to institutions. This has always happened but it's the first time ever where it showed such a strong uptrend and eventually made a new ath. This was a rally solely caused by institutional FOMO willing to pay any price to gather as much coins as possible.

that's also why the PA was so horrendous and choppy at ATHs. usually at definitive tops, we form an ath and immediately deviate back to lower prices. On this institutional local top we distributed for months with sideways chop.

View attachment 4389650

Look at the length and thickness of this mf. Just not a single clear move, straight choppiness.

With that being said, BTC isn't over one bit. We still have our euphoric top to form, the one that comes as quick as it goes. Keep in mind, we're talking Q1-2 2026, we can still chop some more at the lows here before eventually rallying into an ATH.

Eth on the other hand did have an incredible move, also caused by institutional FOMO and treasury companies. Ofcourse since it's eth it can't stay at higher prices for a month without completely nuking, which is what we did the past few months. BUT, since we have now found a bottom (choppiness still allowed), it's time to look for higher prices again once this chop sorts itself out.

View attachment 4389654

HTF for alts and ETH

View attachment 4389660View attachment 4389665View attachment 4389672View attachment 4389705

still looks good and on plan. The only thing that really fucked my mind and made me doubt myself this past year is the fact that altcoins have done absolutely nothing. Charts have looked good numerous times, setups have been clear and ready but there was no follow-through on not 1 setup.
This just further facilitated the fact that altcoins do need a better macro economical environment i.e QE and lower rates. Which if you didn't know is happening currently. QT ended first of december and we're on route to have numerous rate cuts eoy and 2026.
They better give us the craziest altseason to date ngl

Also btc dominance looks really good for the altcoiners betweeen us. We had a small rally over summer but nothing compared to an actual btcd breakdown and eth outperformance.

EQUITIES

View attachment 4389675View attachment 4389676

Couldn't be simpler, they'll just keep going up until something breaks again.
There's NO recession, there's no bond market blow up, QE is starting somewhere soon, ...
All good signs for equities to just keep moving upwards for the near future since it's the only thing they care about.

OVERALL

Nothing much to add, higher tbh
global liquidity up -> BTC up
Easing economy -> alts up

BTC 144k
ETH 6-6.5K, possibly 8K
SOL 334, possibly 440

Do you expecting a small down movement still or not really ? At what price point should i buy btc ? Or should i buy other coins ? Like sol or eth or even other ?

 

[eduardkoopman]

meh it just usually indicates less harsh bearmarkets, don't underestimate retail fomo
The distributive top we just had were just og's dumping on treasuries and institutions, many now in a loss which is just a sign they'll induce euphoria at some point in the near future to keep price from ruining their balance sheet

It's actually quite logical and repetitive, it's just the first cycle where this institutional leg made new ath's. Smart money and og's dumped into institutions, next top will be institutions dumping into retail fomo, which is the 'final cycle top' if we look at previous data

i really hope your thesis turns to reality, and you make great gains

 

[PsychoDsk]

i really hope your thesis turns to reality, and you make great gains

Likewise brother

 

[joseph]

update on my last serious thread
https://looksmax.org/threads/btc-131k-alt-rally-before-summer.1427166/

supercycle (real)

BTC

After being bearish since october/november, it's time to be bullish again. Before summer I really believed alts looked amazing to go into their full risk-on mode paired with btc. BTC performed incredibly well, a little off my target of 131k but I'm not a wizard init. Altcoins performed decent, keyword DECENT. Not a full risk on euphoric rally but also not no rally. There were some nice plays but nothing out of the ordinary.

Since we finally have found a bottom on btc, I'm allowed to say the top isn't in yet.
BTC always has 3 'local' tops during a bull-cycle.
First one is paired with initial euphoria and one sector craze (last year memecoins), the next local top, the one we've had back in august/september is the institutional one. The one where smart money and satoshi era whales sell their bags to institutions. This has always happened but it's the first time ever where it showed such a strong uptrend and eventually made a new ath. This was a rally solely caused by institutional FOMO willing to pay any price to gather as much coins as possible.

that's also why the PA was so horrendous and choppy at ATHs. usually at definitive tops, we form an ath and immediately deviate back to lower prices. On this institutional local top we distributed for months with sideways chop.

View attachment 4389650

Look at the length and thickness of this mf. Just not a single clear move, straight choppiness.

With that being said, BTC isn't over one bit. We still have our euphoric top to form, the one that comes as quick as it goes. Keep in mind, we're talking Q1-2 2026, we can still chop some more at the lows here before eventually rallying into an ATH.

Eth on the other hand did have an incredible move, also caused by institutional FOMO and treasury companies. Ofcourse since it's eth it can't stay at higher prices for a month without completely nuking, which is what we did the past few months. BUT, since we have now found a bottom (choppiness still allowed), it's time to look for higher prices again once this chop sorts itself out.

View attachment 4389654

HTF for alts and ETH

View attachment 4389660View attachment 4389665View attachment 4389672View attachment 4389705

still looks good and on plan. The only thing that really fucked my mind and made me doubt myself this past year is the fact that altcoins have done absolutely nothing. Charts have looked good numerous times, setups have been clear and ready but there was no follow-through on not 1 setup.
This just further facilitated the fact that altcoins do need a better macro economical environment i.e QE and lower rates. Which if you didn't know is happening currently. QT ended first of december and we're on route to have numerous rate cuts eoy and 2026.
They better give us the craziest altseason to date ngl

Also btc dominance looks really good for the altcoiners betweeen us. We had a small rally over summer but nothing compared to an actual btcd breakdown and eth outperformance.

EQUITIES

View attachment 4389675View attachment 4389676

Couldn't be simpler, they'll just keep going up until something breaks again.
There's NO recession, there's no bond market blow up, QE is starting somewhere soon, ...
All good signs for equities to just keep moving upwards for the near future since it's the only thing they care about.

OVERALL

Nothing much to add, higher tbh
global liquidity up -> BTC up
Easing economy -> alts up

BTC 144k
ETH 6-6.5K, possibly 8K
SOL 334, possibly 440

Michael Howell says

update on my last serious thread
https://looksmax.org/threads/btc-131k-alt-rally-before-summer.1427166/

supercycle (real)

BTC

After being bearish since october/november, it's time to be bullish again. Before summer I really believed alts looked amazing to go into their full risk-on mode paired with btc. BTC performed incredibly well, a little off my target of 131k but I'm not a wizard init. Altcoins performed decent, keyword DECENT. Not a full risk on euphoric rally but also not no rally. There were some nice plays but nothing out of the ordinary.

Since we finally have found a bottom on btc, I'm allowed to say the top isn't in yet.
BTC always has 3 'local' tops during a bull-cycle.
First one is paired with initial euphoria and one sector craze (last year memecoins), the next local top, the one we've had back in august/september is the institutional one. The one where smart money and satoshi era whales sell their bags to institutions. This has always happened but it's the first time ever where it showed such a strong uptrend and eventually made a new ath. This was a rally solely caused by institutional FOMO willing to pay any price to gather as much coins as possible.

that's also why the PA was so horrendous and choppy at ATHs. usually at definitive tops, we form an ath and immediately deviate back to lower prices. On this institutional local top we distributed for months with sideways chop.

View attachment 4389650

Look at the length and thickness of this mf. Just not a single clear move, straight choppiness.

With that being said, BTC isn't over one bit. We still have our euphoric top to form, the one that comes as quick as it goes. Keep in mind, we're talking Q1-2 2026, we can still chop some more at the lows here before eventually rallying into an ATH.

Eth on the other hand did have an incredible move, also caused by institutional FOMO and treasury companies. Ofcourse since it's eth it can't stay at higher prices for a month without completely nuking, which is what we did the past few months. BUT, since we have now found a bottom (choppiness still allowed), it's time to look for higher prices again once this chop sorts itself out.

View attachment 4389654

HTF for alts and ETH

View attachment 4389660View attachment 4389665View attachment 4389672View attachment 4389705

still looks good and on plan. The only thing that really fucked my mind and made me doubt myself this past year is the fact that altcoins have done absolutely nothing. Charts have looked good numerous times, setups have been clear and ready but there was no follow-through on not 1 setup.
This just further facilitated the fact that altcoins do need a better macro economical environment i.e QE and lower rates. Which if you didn't know is happening currently. QT ended first of december and we're on route to have numerous rate cuts eoy and 2026.
They better give us the craziest altseason to date ngl

Also btc dominance looks really good for the altcoiners betweeen us. We had a small rally over summer but nothing compared to an actual btcd breakdown and eth outperformance.

EQUITIES

View attachment 4389675View attachment 4389676

Couldn't be simpler, they'll just keep going up until something breaks again.
There's NO recession, there's no bond market blow up, QE is starting somewhere soon, ...
All good signs for equities to just keep moving upwards for the near future since it's the only thing they care about.

OVERALL

Nothing much to add, higher tbh
global liquidity up -> BTC up
Easing economy -> alts up

BTC 144k
ETH 6-6.5K, possibly 8K
SOL 334, possibly 440

according to the 4 year cycle we should have hit the top and the narrative this time can be rising unemployment. We should be in a bear market for the next 12 months as per the 4 year cycle but we could get a bear market rally and potentially an explosive one from May to November into the midterm elections with a new Fed chair and Lisa Cook being replaced with a dove if SCOTUS allows POTUS to uphold her firing

I think we might get a significant correction in all markets from January to end of March or mid April and then a rally into the midterms after that, and we’ll get tons of rate cuts this year to take the overnight federal funds rate down by a good 2.5%-3% from where we are currenty