Guide Crypto Megathread

tincelw

tincelw

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Preface:
The number one most imporant thing to remember is you know nothing.
You are competing with people with decades of experience, who went through brutal education and have unimaginable power and knowledge of the market.
I dont claim to know anything, and doubt anyone who claims he does. This thread has immense value because my intentions are not to appear smart, sell anything, give advice ect. There are INCREDIBLY good resources which give buy/sell signals which give immense returns however these are paid. This is the golden rule which I will discuss alot, and im sure that following these buy/sell signals will be much better than doing this all by yourself. If you are interested PM me. I am making a group where we all pool money to buy subscrpitions for these things. For example if 20 of us pay $50/monthly we can get access to 1k worth of information.

1. Should you still invest in crypto?


The number one question most people have is if its too late to get into crypto. According to multiple models we are still in the early stages of a major bullrun. While we can expect multiple major corrections, we probably have a long way until we enter another multiple year bear market. Another 10x from here is expected.

1. Fear and Greed: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ This is a good indicator of public sentiment. High greed = your family is probably investing, High fear = Institutions and experienced investors are investing



2. Investment strategy
Now that you decided to invest into crypto, we will discuss how to invest.
Three Pillars: Bluechips, Venture capitalist, Flips

Blue Chips refer to assets with good fundamentals and high potential for long term success. Depending on your risk tolerance, it is generally accepted that the majority of your portfolio should consist of these. Venture capitalists refers to small Mcap coins which have to potential to 10x. Think about it this way, If you buy 10 small cap coins, if even 1 goes 10x and the other 9 go to 0 you break even.

How to choose High Potential projects? Find the coin you like and search it among these websites: Avoid any forums where emotion is involved.
  1. https://simetri.cryptobriefing.com/ratings/
    Ratings are given according too

https://app.flipsidecrypto.com/tracker/all-coins


Other Sites:
https://coincheckup.com/analysis

The goated youtube channel is https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTz9aloyvpcdskTrAQf7t7A (for smaller Mcap coins)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRvqjQPSeaWn-uEx-w0XOIg (for the big players)


Again just remember the golden rule: You dont know shit. Just follow these guys and you will be fine.

Pay attention to which coins the whales are accumilating.

Check the project's official Roadmap and check for https://coinmarketcal.com/en/ to look if any catalysts are coming up. Projects with major emphasis on building the technological aspect are much more lucrative for the long term, compared with projects which have already focused on marketing.

If you look at a cryptos road map and they still havent started with marketing, it means they have a good potential in the future

Flips:
The second section of this focuses on short term flips and technical analysis. These are great in a bull market, you accumilate more money to accumilate more bluechips and venture capitals.

Most important indicators (You NEED to know these before you invest). Firstly and most importantly look at the fucking price. If a coin has already pumped you are too late, and most likely will buy at the peak.)




GOLDEN RULE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Remember that you are the guy on the left. Whales are incredibly good at manipulating the market. No matter how much research you do, if whales want to push the price down so they can accumilate more, all the fundamentals go outside the window. Think about it like this, No matter how much you looksmax if sean orpy wants your girlfriend there is nothing you can do about it. The market moves the way the whales want it too.

Think about Fibonacci retracement. Why the fuck should a random number be such a good preditor of value? Its because whales know this. They wait for it to break resistance, then they buy a lot (which increases price), then they set a set a sell order for 1 fib level, and a buy order for a lower fib level. So exactly what they want occurs, the coin goes up, and idiots (you) fomo into it. The coin will then hit the fib level which all the whales set sell orders for. The coin then drops since people panic, and the coin then finds support at the levels the whales have decided. Its a form of indirect collusion.

You are not smart enough to play against the whales (If you are you know more than me and shouldnt be reading this thread).


https://cryptoquant.com/overview/btc-fund-data THis is the best website to see what the whales are doing
https://www.binance.com/en/futures/funding-history/4 This shows you the ratio of Long/Shorts. If there are high amount of shorts, it means Bears are going to try to push the market down.



A good strategy is buying a coin after it breaks through resistance. Set a stop loss at the resistance level and let the coin ride.

TLDR;
Just buy a subscription to a service which gives buy/sell signals. If you wonder what this is, its basically a company which does extensive research and spoonfeeds you information. This is the best interms of percentage gain, and also saves you time and effort. PM me and we will all split the costs.If for some reason you dont want to do that (capital is not large enough, you want to learn the market yourself, ect) You can use these resources to guide yourself. Im sure there are high IQcels who will make massive gains learning the market themselves, but it takes time, patience, and losses early on.

This thread was inspired by my good friend and inspirational user TheMewingBBC @TheMewingBBC . May we all succeed like he did
 
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Holy fuck bookmarked and thanks for this info that will be handy in the future
 
tincelw

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Vitruvian

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good read, tbh i just bought 100$ worth of bitcoin
 
anti caking agents

anti caking agents

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Just buy a subscription to a service which gives buy/sell signals. If you wonder what this is, its basically a company which does extensive research and spoonfeeds you information. This is the best interms of percentage gain, and also saves you time and effort. PM me and we will all split the costs.If for some reason you dont want to do that (capital is not large enough, you want to learn the market yourself, ect) You can use these resources to guide yourself. Im sure there are high IQcels who will make massive gains learning the market themselves, but it takes time, patience, and losses early on.`
If anyone pays for this you are retarded. Anyone who had a working algo would never sell it as they would be busy using it. You will probably get some shitty tradview strategy that repaints constantly to exploit suckers who do not know better. Matter of the fact that in a market like cryptocurrency you just buy and hold, time in the market naturally is superior. However all you have to do is make sure you buy during a bear market and not a bull market. That and make good picks and only use TA to determine if its a good wave to buy in which can save you a few %. TA will not work for 99% of you because if common indicators like MACD/RSI/STOCH/BB bands an so forth could reliably make you money people would instantly make bots that do it for them which was possible early on but no longer and then people with better skills would make bots that outcompete those bots etc.
 
tincelw

tincelw

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anti caking agents said:
If anyone pays for this you are retarded. Anyone who had a working algo would never sell it as they would be busy using it. You will probably get some shitty tradview strategy that repaints constantly to exploit suckers who do not know better. Matter of the fact that in a market like cryptocurrency you just buy and hold, time in the market naturally is superior. However all you have to do is make sure you buy during a bear market and not a bull market. That and make good picks and only use TA to determine if its a good wave to buy in which can save you a few %. TA will not work for 99% of you because if common indicators like MACD/RSI/STOCH/BB bands an so forth could reliably make you money people would instantly make bots that do it for them which was possible early on but no longer and then people with better skills would make bots that outcompete those bots etc.
 
anti caking agents

anti caking agents

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tincelw said:
Yes, I am aware of them. Still basically useless information unless you are very new and I would absolutely not recommend paying for their services. Surely you must understand their buisnessmodel? They open a position, give you a buy signal, then they sell as their readers buy in all the while literally charging money for this service. The truth is that the majority of gains in cryptocurrency can be had from merely finding low marketcap coins that are good. LTO/PNK are two examples. Then buy during a bearmarket and sell in a bullmarket and repeat. FTM is a good example of such a play that has concluded, if you had bought in at roughly 20 million marketcap, and it was obvious that the technology was superior back then you would be sitting on a massive profit even disregarding the initial 30% APY and the current 12%. Then if you sold near the top or even now and buy back in later in the next bear market to ride it once again. Although to do so with FTM is risky due to the longterm potential of it.

Buying BTC/ETH now makes little since due to the low ROI they will give, if any before the current bull market is over. And also stay away from USDT and hold USDC only. The low effort strategy is just to ride the cycles even if you do not time it perfectly its still massively profitable. I sold at 43k BTC and sure I missed out on some profit and maybe will miss out on more but thats okay because when it crashes I will buy back in at sub 20k and in the meanwhile I am getting 20% APY from a yVault on my USDC holdings.
 
sytyl

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everything has been bogging recently
 
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tincelw

tincelw

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anti caking agents said:
Yes, I am aware of them. Still basically useless information unless you are very new and I would absolutely not recommend paying for their services. Surely you must understand their buisnessmodel? They open a position, give you a buy signal, then they sell as their readers buy in all the while literally charging money for this service. The truth is that the majority of gains in cryptocurrency can be had from merely finding low marketcap coins that are good. LTO/PNK are two examples. Then buy during a bearmarket and sell in a bullmarket and repeat. FTM is a good example of such a play that has concluded, if you had bought in at roughly 20 million marketcap, and it was obvious that the technology was superior back then you would be sitting on a massive profit even disregarding the initial 30% APY and the current 12%. Then if you sold near the top or even now and buy back in later in the next bear market to ride it once again. Although to do so with FTM is risky due to the longterm potential of it.

Buying BTC/ETH now makes little since due to the low ROI they will give, if any before the current bull market is over. And also stay away from USDT and hold USDC only. The low effort strategy is just to ride the cycles even if you do not time it perfectly its still massively profitable. I sold at 43k BTC and sure I missed out on some profit and maybe will miss out on more but thats okay because when it crashes I will buy back in at sub 20k and in the meanwhile I am getting 20% APY from a yVault on my USDC holdings.
I do understand your view point and opinion. I wouldnt suggest people to buy subscriptions to buy/sell signals generally because the majority of them you are paying to buy something which companies are going to dump on you. Just today I joined a "premium" telegram server (for free OFC) where the admin told me that ada was going to 1000x. This was in a very well known server.

But keep in mind there are exceptions to everything. The paid resources I am considering are high quality and have made me money in the past (SIMETRY, santiment, ect) These guys do in depth research and provide a good and honest service from my experience.

SIMETRY research reports are published by coinmarketcap and other big players. Check out the reports
 
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anti caking agents

anti caking agents

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tincelw said:
I do understand your view point and opinion. I wouldnt suggest people to buy subscriptions to buy/sell signals generally because the majority of them you are paying to buy something which companies are going to dump on you. Just today I joined a "premium" telegram server (for free OFC) where the admin told me that ada was going to 1000x. This was in a very well known server.

But keep in mind there are exceptions to everything. The paid resources I am considering are high quality and have made me money in the past (SIMETRY, santiment, ect) These guys do in depth research and provide a good and honest service from my experience.

SIMETRY research reports are published by coinmarketcap and other big players. Check out the reports
"Coinmarketcap" That you quoted that and not coingecko... That you are shilling Simetri so hard is suspicous. ADA is literally all hype and no substance.
 
uglymug

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Good thread will read later
 
Seth Walsh

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tincelw said:
TLDR;
Just buy a subscription to a service which gives buy/sell signals. If you wonder what this is, its basically a company which does extensive research and spoonfeeds you information. This is the best interms of percentage gain, and also saves you time and effort. PM me and we will all split the costs.If for some reason you dont want to do that (capital is not large enough, you want to learn the market yourself, ect) You can use these resources to guide yourself. Im sure there are high IQcels who will make massive gains learning the market themselves, but it takes time, patience, and losses early on.
Never ever ever join a signals group. They are complete bullshit. Making money in the markets longterrm is so so so much harder than it seems. I like a lot of what you wrote in this thread but it's really not so cut and dry. More people than you think are privy to sentiment and position information. You need to keep pushing and find information that offers a huge alpha, then run simulations based on the inefficiency; then run real trades based on the alpha you found, preferably with a bot. Position sizing and risk management comes before everything. Tons of people will lose money in crypto. Very few people will make money. And even fewer people who don't already have big bankrolls will make money.

It is HARD. Those signal services are total bullshit and not run by professionals. They're all scammers on telegram.
 
tincelw

tincelw

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anti caking agents said:
"Coinmarketcap" That you quoted that and not coingecko... That you are shilling Simetri so hard is suspicous. ADA is literally all hype and no substance.
1. It is on coinmarketcap and coingecko
2. my only purpose for crypto is making money, and I made more money with this subscription than when i traded myself. It would be super hypocritical of me to write this guide without admiting that I wasnt able to outperform these guys.
3. I was pointing out how stupid paid discord/telegram servers are with my statement on ada
Seth Walsh said:
You need to keep pushing and find information that offers a huge alpha, then run simulations based on the inefficiency; then run real trades based on the alpha you found, preferably with a bot. Position sizing and risk management comes before everything. Tons of people will lose money in crypto. Very few people will make money. And even fewer people who don't already have big bankrolls will make money.

It is HARD. Those signal services are total bullshit and not run by professionals. They're all scammers on telegram.
Very interesting and I hope you see my position. I look at it from a perspective of supply/demand. not only is there so much money involved, but the demand for such a trading service is insanely high.

I agree that most services like this are scams. The fact that there is so much information inequality means the product is hard to judge and marketing matters more. So telegram scammers have an upper hand because of this since they know the platforms with gullible people extremely well (professional businesses also cant just make wild claims and need to consider the law).

However in the long run, what really matters to clients is purely profits. How is it possible that there is not a single honest business which recognizes the demand for profitable signals?

If you believe that im sure you are thinking the same thing as me. Lets be the first to offer such a service.
 
eduardkoopman

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What about this factor?

I notice random normies having entered and talking about bitcoin.
And there is this general stock market notion, that when normies on the street start talking about it. It's time to sell.

I feel long term bullish.
But at the short term, because of this. I feel like maybe to sell all I have, and jump back in when a soon crash happens.


But if the crash never happens, and it goes up. And I sold all.
I be
 
Seth Walsh

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eduardkoopman said:
What about this factor?

I notice random normies having entered and talking about bitcoin.
And there is this general stock market notion, that when normies on the street start talking about it. It's time to sell.

I feel long term bullish.
But at the short term, because of this. I feel like maybe to sell all I have, and jump back in when a soon crash happens.


But if the crash never happens, and it goes up. And I sold all.
I be
I remain extremely bullish on crypto. Check out how much cash has been invested by institutions over the past 1-2 months via the grayscale trust. Tens of billions into both BTC and ETH.

My post back in Mar/Apr 2020 saying it’s a good time to buy BTC when it was $4,500-5000 was my gut feelings and I made a hyperbolic statement saying BTC will reach $100k+ by July 2021 which was just meant for sensationalism.

But looking at all factors, and looking at the actual institutional investments via grayscale gives good confidence that the crypto market doesn’t have much possibility of crashing and failing.

Sure there’ll be bad days/weeks but those will be engineered to shake you out. Go to grayscales website and look at the money flow into their shares for their BTC, ETH trusts etc. They’ve a huge amount of AUM at the moment. Something like $35billion is in BTC via grayscale.

If all that money gets pulled out, then we should worry and question what’s going on. But their AUM is growing and more institutions and getting exposure to crypto via their shares. All bullish exposure.
 
randomvanish

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need more resources to learn. give me some
 
eduardkoopman

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Seth Walsh said:
I remain extremely bullish on crypto. Check out how much cash has been invested by institutions over the past 1-2 months via the grayscale trust. Tens of billions into both BTC and ETH.

My post back in Mar/Apr 2020 saying it’s a good time to buy BTC when it was $4,500-5000 was my gut feelings and I made a hyperbolic statement saying BTC will reach $100k+ by July 2021 which was just meant for sensationalism.

But looking at all factors, and looking at the actual institutional investments via grayscale gives good confidence that the crypto market doesn’t have much possibility of crashing and failing.

Sure there’ll be bad days/weeks but those will be engineered to shake you out. Go to grayscales website and look at the money flow into their shares for their BTC, ETH trusts etc. They’ve a huge amount of AUM at the moment. Something like $35billion is in BTC via grayscale.

If all that money gets pulled out, then we should worry and question what’s going on. But their AUM is growing and more institutions and getting exposure to crypto via their shares. All bullish exposure.
good point.
So institutional money inflow. Will likely compensate for the current new noobs/normies peoples panic selling when a 10% drop happens, and bitcoin goes to like 40K and the new normies that bought at 53K go panic?

(P.S. luckily I bought last year summer at 10K-12K bitcoin, for like 1000 euro. I now have like 4500 euro or more. I dumped all bitcoins in Januray by the way, and spread it out of 5 other alt-cryptos. Hopeing for an altcoin season, that moggs bitcoin).
 
Seth Walsh

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eduardkoopman said:
So institutional money inflow. Will likely compensate for the current new noobs/normies peoples panic selling when a 10% drop happens, and bitcoin goes to like 40K and the new normies that bought at 53K go panic?
Exactly!
 
tincelw

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Seth Walsh said:
Are you also bullish on ETH for this reason? on-chain data surrounding ETH shows whales now own 68.6% of the total supply, highest since november 2017.



seems like ethereum is ready to make some massive moves imo
 
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tincelw said:
Are you also bullish on ETH for this reason? on-chain data surrounding ETH shows whales now own 68.6% of the total supply, highest since november 2017.
View attachment 1029712
View attachment 1029714

seems like ethereum is ready to make some massive moves imo
Erherum will follow Bitcoin's growth but it wont hit as high as Bitcoin
 
Madhate

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Just give money to signalers that literally coinflip to get their info :lul::lul:
You're better off going to the casino if you want short term gain

Just invest a part of your portfolio in crypto long term, and let it sit, 50/50 altcoin/btc
And that's only 20%, the rest is in ETFs, REITs, some stocks and maybe in the future real estate
 
Seth Walsh

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tincelw said:
Are you also bullish on ETH for this reason? on-chain data surrounding ETH shows whales now own 68.6% of the total supply, highest since november 2017.
View attachment 1029712
View attachment 1029714

seems like ethereum is ready to make some massive moves imo
Always have been bullish but I don't think right now is the best time to buy in. Looks like price is going to be pushed down a bit just based on the ETHUSD aggregated orderbook depth ratio, call & put buyer/seller ratios and the fact that the margin lending ratio isn't great. ie; today a lot of people are borrowing ETH against USDT. They're borrowing ETH to short it. When you see a spike in the lending ratio that means more people are borrowing USDT against ETH (to buy ETH with the borrowed USDT) https://www.okex.com/markets/spot-data/eth-usdt

The higher the spot margin lending ratio, the more people are borrowing dollar to buy ETH. It's a good indicator.

I also think there's been a bit too much buying (by retailers) across all exchanges since the 5th March, which is not a good sign. You shouldn't do what dumb money does, after they do it. (looking at aggregated volume delta - by side)

Institutions buy into ETH via the grayscale trust when the Net Asset Value of the ETH trust is close in price to the market price of ETH. So I believe we won't see more institutional buying until the grayscale ETH trust premium % is low or in the negatives.

Buy when institutions buy. Most simple strategy long term. And you'll have bought before the retail traders follow suit.
 
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tincelw

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Seth Walsh said:
Always have been bullish but I don't think right now is the best time to buy in. Looks like price is going to be pushed down a bit just based on the ETHUSD aggregated orderbook depth ratio, call & put buyer/seller ratios and the fact that the margin lending ratio isn't great. ie; today a lot of people are borrowing ETH against USDT. They're borrowing ETH to short it. When you see a spike in the lending ratio that means more people are borrowing USDT against ETH (to buy ETH with the borrowed USDT) https://www.okex.com/markets/spot-data/eth-usdt

The higher the spot margin lending ratio, the more people are borrowing dollar to buy ETH. It's a good indicator.

I also think there's been a bit too much buying (by retailers) across all exchanges since the 5th March, which is not a good sign. You shouldn't do what dumb money does, after they do it. (looking at aggregated volume delta - by side)

Institutions buy into ETH via the grayscale trust when the Net Asset Value of the ETH trust is close in price to the market price of ETH. So I believe we won't see more institutional buying until the grayscale ETH trust premium % is low or in the negatives.

Buy when institutions buy. Most simple strategy long term. And you'll have bought before the retail traders follow suit.
All super good points. Just saw that the top (smart money) has a significantly higher ratio of shorts/longs than the normal traders.

Its strange because ETH is still held majorly by whales, but they are trying to push the price down. Could it be they are trying to accumilate more?


I dont have much data, but it seems like retail buyers and whales are split. Retails buyer are getting into the "eth killers" while whales remain on ethereum

cardano

eth

I am seriously wondering about the short term trajectory of the market though, not just eth. we had lower highs for 3weeks in a row for BTC.

one thing I am worried about for ETH, is selling off for NASDAQ. I dont think any retail investors who fomoed into ada are going to do it, but i think its a problem for eth. A breakout from a head and shoulders is underway in the Nasdaq, which could take the index down towards the 11,400 level this month. The Nasdaq is down 5% so far this month, so if the mentioned pattern proves correct a further 8% of downside is possible.

TBH i wonder if we are due for a correction before moving up for the whole market. What do you think bro?
 
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What’s a good resource to learn about technical analysis?
 
tincelw

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tincelw said:
All super good points. Just saw that the top (smart money) has a significantly higher ratio of shorts/longs than the normal traders.
View attachment 1029988 View attachment 1029989
Its strange because ETH is still held majorly by whales, but they are trying to push the price down. Could it be they are trying to accumilate more?
View attachment 1029995

I dont have much data, but it seems like retail buyers and whales are split. Retails buyer are getting into the "eth killers" while whales remain on ethereum

cardano
View attachment 1029999
eth
View attachment 1030003
I am seriously wondering about the short term trajectory of the market though, not just eth. we had lower highs for 3weeks in a row for BTC.

one thing I am worried about for ETH, is selling off for NASDAQ. I dont think any retail investors who fomoed into ada are going to do it, but i think its a problem for eth. A breakout from a head and shoulders is underway in the Nasdaq, which could take the index down towards the 11,400 level this month. The Nasdaq is down 5% so far this month, so if the mentioned pattern proves correct a further 8% of downside is possible.

TBH i wonder if we are due for a correction before moving up for the whole market. What do you think bro?
 
Seth Walsh

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tincelw said:
All super good points. Just saw that the top (smart money) has a significantly higher ratio of shorts/longs than the normal traders.
View attachment 1029988 View attachment 1029989
Its strange because ETH is still held majorly by whales, but they are trying to push the price down. Could it be they are trying to accumilate more?
View attachment 1029995

I dont have much data, but it seems like retail buyers and whales are split. Retails buyer are getting into the "eth killers" while whales remain on ethereum

cardano
View attachment 1029999
eth
View attachment 1030003
I am seriously wondering about the short term trajectory of the market though, not just eth. we had lower highs for 3weeks in a row for BTC.

one thing I am worried about for ETH, is selling off for NASDAQ. I dont think any retail investors who fomoed into ada are going to do it, but i think its a problem for eth. A breakout from a head and shoulders is underway in the Nasdaq, which could take the index down towards the 11,400 level this month. The Nasdaq is down 5% so far this month, so if the mentioned pattern proves correct a further 8% of downside is possible.

TBH i wonder if we are due for a correction before moving up for the whole market. What do you think bro?
Binance long/short ACCOUNT data is really good because you can deduce that if more accounts share a sentiment, those accounts are most likely to be dumb retailers. The position sentiment isn't useful imo. The account data helps discern top traders (minority of accounts) from dumb retail (majority). Seriously look into grayscale and add the GBTC indicator to tradingview and that'll show you when and where their trust premium is low or even negative, and from there you can see where the real institutional buying happens (through the grayscale trust ! not on any exchange).

The aim of institutions is to get bullish exposure to crypto when they can invest big money into the grayscale trust when the price of buying shares in the trust are at fair value with the market prices of the crypto they're buying into via grayscale. When the premium is negative, it's actually cheaper to buy grayscale trust shares than buying ANY amount of BTC at market price.

If institutions were to just buy BTC on exchanges, they'd make price rocket and wouldn't be able to fill their liquidity. Grayscale is like a darkpool. The REAL big money doesn't play on exchanges AT ALL.

I don't treat any market activity on exchanges as "institutional money flow". Although it can be helpful to discern "top trader sentiment" and the long/short ACCOUNTS data on binance is best for that.

Apologies if I'm not answering your questions directly. BTW "top trader" data provided on binance just means "all traders". Binance don't pool profitable traders vs unprofitable and then provide data on a chart, although that'd be really really helpful!

"Top Trader" is just misconstrued. It's just all data from futures positions. They're basically calling anyone who traders their futures a "top trader", which is misleading!
 
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Seth Walsh said:
Binance long/short ACCOUNT data is really good because you can deduce that if more accounts share a sentiment, those accounts are most likely to be dumb retailers. The position sentiment isn't useful imo. The account data helps discern top traders (minority of accounts) from dumb retail (majority). Seriously look into grayscale and add the GBTC indicator to tradingview and that'll show you when and where their trust premium is low or even negative, and from there you can see where the real institutional buying happens (through the grayscale trust ! not on any exchange).

The aim of institutions is to get bullish exposure to crypto when they can invest big money into the grayscale trust when the price of buying shares in the trust are at fair value with the market prices of the crypto they're buying into via grayscale. When the premium is negative, it's actually cheaper to buy grayscale trust shares than buying ANY amount of BTC at market price.

If institutions were to just buy BTC on exchanges, they'd make price rocket and wouldn't be able to fill their liquidity. Grayscale is like a darkpool. The REAL big money doesn't play on exchanges AT ALL.

I don't treat any market activity on exchanges as "institutional money flow". Although it can be helpful to discern "top trader sentiment" and the long/short ACCOUNTS data on binance is best for that.

Apologies if I'm not answering your questions directly. BTW "top trader" data provided on binance just means "all traders". Binance don't pool profitable traders vs unprofitable and then provide data on a chart, although that'd be really really helpful!

"Top Trader" is just misconstrued. It's just all data from futures positions. They're basically calling anyone who traders their futures a "top trader", which is misleading!
Also the fear/greed index on alternative.me is pretty much useless and won't help. It helped me make my call to say BTC would go up around 1 year ago because of the extreme fear. But that was probably already biased and unneeded. I don't see a massive crash happening like in Dec 2017 / Jan 2018. Definitely not a sustained crash of any sort... With all the money that's in grayscale, it just wouldn't even make sense. Sure, prices can momentarily crash but those movements will just be to shake out retailers. I don't see much of a probability for a long term bearish scenario. There's too much money involved for something like the last big crash to repeat. And if the exact same thing happens and prices crash and everything trades sideways for another 3 years. People will just lose confidence. Very unlikely scenario.
 
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Seth Walsh said:
Binance long/short ACCOUNT data is really good because you can deduce that if more accounts share a sentiment, those accounts are most likely to be dumb retailers. The position sentiment isn't useful imo. The account data helps discern top traders (minority of accounts) from dumb retail (majority). Seriously look into grayscale and add the GBTC indicator to tradingview and that'll show you when and where their trust premium is low or even negative, and from there you can see where the real institutional buying happens (through the grayscale trust ! not on any exchange).

The aim of institutions is to get bullish exposure to crypto when they can invest big money into the grayscale trust when the price of buying shares in the trust are at fair value with the market prices of the crypto they're buying into via grayscale. When the premium is negative, it's actually cheaper to buy grayscale trust shares than buying ANY amount of BTC at market price.

If institutions were to just buy BTC on exchanges, they'd make price rocket and wouldn't be able to fill their liquidity. Grayscale is like a darkpool. The REAL big money doesn't play on exchanges AT ALL.

I don't treat any market activity on exchanges as "institutional money flow". Although it can be helpful to discern "top trader sentiment" and the long/short ACCOUNTS data on binance is best for that.

Apologies if I'm not answering your questions directly. BTW "top trader" data provided on binance just means "all traders". Binance don't pool profitable traders vs unprofitable and then provide data on a chart, although that'd be really really helpful!

"Top Trader" is just misconstrued. It's just all data from futures positions. They're basically calling anyone who traders their futures a "top trader", which is misleading!
https://flagticker.com/ETHE.php ill use this for grayscale premium, super good point
high premium = large institutional interest and discount = insitutions are bearish.

I can see there is probably a correlation between all these things. I agree with you about the F and greed being misleading. I bought at 99greed at 16k.

Probably better than predicting greed, is actual on chain data about coin distribution.




super high exchange activity and a decrease in the eth holding from big wallets combined with a grayscale discount would probably be the best indicator of a potential drop right? Always super happy to learn from you :)
 
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tincelw said:
https://flagticker.com/ETHE.php ill use this for grayscale premium, super good point
high premium = large institutional interest and discount = insitutions are bearish.

I can see there is probably a correlation between all these things. I agree with you about the F and greed being misleading. I bought at 99greed at 16k.

Probably better than predicting greed, is actual on chain data about coin distribution.
View attachment 1030100
View attachment 1030101
View attachment 1030106

super high exchange activity and a decrease in the eth holding from big wallets combined with a grayscale discount would probably be the best indicator of a potential drop right? Always super happy to learn from you :)
Low premium = Institutions about to buy

Because.. the premium is the NAV of their holdings divides by the actual market price.

So a high premium means it costs more to buy via grayscale shares (PER ASSET) than buying at market price (which they'd never do anyway because their money would move the price.

Try using the GBTC premium indicator on tradingview. Or go to the grayscale website.

High premium means there won't be any institutions buying into crypto because it's too expensive for them relative to the market price of the assets they're aiming to get bullish exposure on.
 
Last edited:
Seth Walsh

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tincelw said:
https://flagticker.com/ETHE.php ill use this for grayscale premium, super good point
high premium = large institutional interest and discount = insitutions are bearish.

I can see there is probably a correlation between all these things. I agree with you about the F and greed being misleading. I bought at 99greed at 16k.

Probably better than predicting greed, is actual on chain data about coin distribution.
View attachment 1030100
View attachment 1030101
View attachment 1030106

super high exchange activity and a decrease in the eth holding from big wallets combined with a grayscale discount would probably be the best indicator of a potential drop right? Always super happy to learn from you :)
Np btw. Not many people are as persistent as you in wanting to learn more. I'm happy to help!
 
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tincelw said:
https://flagticker.com/ETHE.php ill use this for grayscale premium, super good point
high premium = large institutional interest and discount = insitutions are bearish.

I can see there is probably a correlation between all these things. I agree with you about the F and greed being misleading. I bought at 99greed at 16k.

Probably better than predicting greed, is actual on chain data about coin distribution.
View attachment 1030100
View attachment 1030101
View attachment 1030106

super high exchange activity and a decrease in the eth holding from big wallets combined with a grayscale discount would probably be the best indicator of a potential drop right? Always super happy to learn from you :)
The "amount held by top addresses" info is rarely helpful as the top addresses are usually exchanges cold/hot storage wallets or lost wallets or troglodyte HODLERS from 10 years ago. The top addresses seem to never move their crypto to exchanges and even if they do, that's not much of a sign of anything. They mainly just hold and/or are exchange hot wallets....

Even if a big wallet moves money, market movements have always been less impactful that anticipated or completely obsolete.

It's the guys with hundreds of billions of dollars moving money from their Bank Accounts into the cryptosphere that we should try to follow more closely
 
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Seth Walsh said:
Low premium = Institutions about to buy

Because.. the premium is the NAV of their holdings divides by the actual market price.

So a high premium means it costs more to buy via grayscale shares (PER ASSET) than buying at market price (which they'd never do anyway because their money would move the price.

Try using the GBTC premium indicator on tradingview. Or go to the grayscale website.

High premium means there won't be any institutions buying into crypto because it's too expensive for them relative to the market price of the assets they're aiming to get bullish exposure on.
So its almost like overbought and over sold. if its overbought there is a premium and the grayscale trust cost more than BTC, if its underbought the Grayscale trust cost less than BTC.

In hindsight this was a really good indicator since march 1st we saw a good recovery.

Seems like the easiest strategy is also the most simple. Let the whales do the heavy thinking and analysis and just follow them ;)
Seth Walsh said:
Np btw. Not many people are as persistent as you in wanting to learn more. I'm happy to help!
and no one better to learn from :)

you might find this article interesting since it is related to how the market is influenced by whales.


They backtested the correlation between whale transaction count and price, and it indicated that "Overall, the pattern appears to be fairly uniform throughout all of our backtests, suggesting that local ‘whale’ transaction peaks may signal an elevated risk of an upcoming price correction, as large holders may take advantage of the price rally and claim profits."
 
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tincelw said:
So its almost like overbought and over sold. if its overbought there is a premium and the grayscale trust cost more than BTC, if its underbought the Grayscale trust cost less than BTC.
View attachment 1030131
In hindsight this was a really good indicator since march 1st we saw a good recovery.

Seems like the easiest strategy is also the most simple. Let the whales do the heavy thinking and analysis and just follow them ;)

and no one better to learn from :)

you might find this article interesting since it is related to how the market is influenced by whales.

View attachment 1030147
They backtested the correlation between whale transaction count and price, and it indicated that "Overall, the pattern appears to be fairly uniform throughout all of our backtests, suggesting that local ‘whale’ transaction peaks may signal an elevated risk of an upcoming price correction, as large holders may take advantage of the price rally and claim profits."
The premium is basically the difference between access to BTC via their shares versus BTC on the market (price on exchanges).

If the grayscale shares are at too high of a premium; It won't attract more institutional investors. https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav

If the premium is negative, there's almost a guarantee that there'll be huge institutional moneyflow coming asap. Because the cost of BTC via grayscale trust shares is actually cheaper than the market price of BTC.

Which is insane. Because these institutions can pour billions into grayscale shares and buy gigantic amounts of BTC, at a discount, without any friction. Since they don't buy via the exchange markets, they don't move prices with their buying.
 
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tincelw said:
So its almost like overbought and over sold. if its overbought there is a premium and the grayscale trust cost more than BTC, if its underbought the Grayscale trust cost less than BTC.
View attachment 1030131
In hindsight this was a really good indicator since march 1st we saw a good recovery.

Seems like the easiest strategy is also the most simple. Let the whales do the heavy thinking and analysis and just follow them ;)

and no one better to learn from :)

you might find this article interesting since it is related to how the market is influenced by whales.

View attachment 1030147
They backtested the correlation between whale transaction count and price, and it indicated that "Overall, the pattern appears to be fairly uniform throughout all of our backtests, suggesting that local ‘whale’ transaction peaks may signal an elevated risk of an upcoming price correction, as large holders may take advantage of the price rally and claim profits."
Markets are influenced entirely by big money because money moves markets; and big money moves them even more. The "whales" who are just individuals who happen to hold large amounts of crypto have ZERO influence as to what will happen to the entire cryptospace long term. People/Institutions with hundreds of billions of $ have that influence.

Sure "whales" can manipulate price around because they hold a large % of the float of a crypto... But do they have seemingly endless $$$ like these mega funds? Hell no. They can only use their crypto to influence price movements. There's institutions who have $$$ though, and they're the ones who can/do rocket the entire crypto-market; with external dollars...
 
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Seth Walsh said:
Markets are influenced entirely by big money because money moves markets; and big money moves them even more. The "whales" who are just individuals who happen to hold large amounts of crypto have ZERO influence as to what will happen to the entire cryptospace long term. People/Institutions with hundreds of billions of $ have that influence.

Sure "whales" can manipulate price around because they hold a large % of the float of a crypto... But do they have seemingly endless $$$ like these mega funds? Hell no. They can only use their crypto to influence price movements. There's institutions who have $$$ though, and they're the ones who can/do rocket the entire crypto-market; with external dollars...
So think about how plausible "manipulating price" LONGTERM, just by holding a large % of a float is? Without ever putting another cent into crypto? Not very efficient. First of all, they'd need to sell their holdings to manipulate price down for a given crypto.... But that's risky. They can't push price up without buying tons more.... So "whales" can manipulate but only in a weird short-term way where it's actually quite risky for them to even do. They have zero influence on long term price movements, because they are not the ones pouring gazillions into crypto.

Institutions hide in grayscale shares. They don't have wallets or anything. They just use grayscales assets as their equity; and their equity stake in grayscale is their % exposure to all of grayscales assets depending on how many shares they own.
 
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tincelw said:
Seems like the easiest strategy is also the most simple. Let the whales investors who buy grayscale shares do the heavy thinking buying of grayscale shares and just follow them ;) <<< by buying when they buy, before retail investors
 
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GBTC premium is -8% rn.


A low premium is a good indication that institutions will buy more grayscale shares for more bullish exposure to BTC and other cryptos.

A negative premium is almost a sure indication...
 
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Will bitcoin go past its previous peak at 58k or is the hype dead?
What other coins have potential? i've bought XLM, DOGE, chainlink, ox coin, OMG network, ethereum

Is XRP ever gonna explode?
 
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Seth Walsh said:
GBTC premium is -8% rn. View attachment 1030212

A low premium is a good indication that institutions will buy more grayscale shares for more bullish exposure to BTC and other cryptos.

A negative premium is almost a sure indication...
See when it was low in Oct 2020? Guess what happened. Huge institutional buys. Price didn't move since grayscale acts as a darkpool. But mass buying across exchanges started soon after...
 
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sergeant blackpill said:
Will bitcoin go past its previous peak at 58k or is the hype dead?
What other coins have potential? i've bought XLM, DOGE, chainlink, ox coin, OMG network, ethereum

Is XRP ever gonna explode?
XRP is trash imo. I only like BTC, ETH, LINK, XMR.

Using deribit options data, the probability BTC will at least "touch" $64,000 at or before 31st Dec 2021 is ~74%.

This is based on the "probability of touch" model which uses deltas and IV. (Not sure how to calculate any POT based on a random timeframe off the top of my head, but I don't think the calculation is too hard).

With a preset date, the POT is just the delta of the strike at that date *2.
 
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Seth Walsh @Seth Walsh super insigntful and much appreciated.

Would you say the methods I have been talking about are good for tracking "whale" activity for alt coins? I realised with your last comment the difference that you have BTC,ETH ect while I have the majority of my portfolio in sub 500mill marketcap coins.

https://discord.gg/RDZXeXYM - lifemaxing channel i just created where we can discuss investing in more detail (like the good old days with souls max).
 
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tincelw said:
Seth Walsh @Seth Walsh super insigntful and much appreciated.

Would you say the methods I have been talking about are good for tracking "whale" activity for alt coins? I realised with your last comment the difference that you have BTC,ETH ect while I have the majority of my portfolio in sub 500mill marketcap coins.

https://discord.gg/RDZXeXYM - lifemaxing channel i just created where we can discuss investing in more detail (like the good old days with souls max).
Nice, I might join later.

My best advice would be to get out of altcoins and don’t try to trade them especially if they’re not largecap.

The whale info is cool but it’s not info that only a few people are privy to. So I don’t see an informational/trading edge there.

If there’s people holding huge amounts of a coin which doesn’t have a large mcap, you’re playing with fire if you even try to trade it as someone who’s not “a whale”.

My best advice would be to get into Bitcoin and hold it, and focus on the really long term prospects. Risk management is #1
 
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tincelw said:
Seth Walsh @Seth Walsh super insigntful and much appreciated.

Would you say the methods I have been talking about are good for tracking "whale" activity for alt coins? I realised with your last comment the difference that you have BTC,ETH ect while I have the majority of my portfolio in sub 500mill marketcap coins.

https://discord.gg/RDZXeXYM - lifemaxing channel i just created where we can discuss investing in more detail (like the good old days with souls max).
What happened to soulsmax?
 
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Seth Walsh said:
GBTC premium is -8% rn. View attachment 1030212

A low premium is a good indication that institutions will buy more grayscale shares for more bullish exposure to BTC and other cryptos.

A negative premium is almost a sure indication...
And look what's happened since this post. Institutional buys spiked the price 5% in hours...
 
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Seth Walsh said:
What happened to soulsmax?
no idea havent heard from him in ages
Seth Walsh said:
And look what's happened since this post. Institutional buys spiked the price 5% in hours...

could you pm or join the discord bro? I want to discuss GME with you and something else
 

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