Xangsane
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maybe
Nowiff.Belgrade
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nah nigga I read that thread that you.
The brutal locking people into conversations until they just ignore you
Xangsane
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WDYM nigga?nah nigga I read that thread that you.
The brutal locking people into conversations until they just ignore you
Nowiff.Belgrade
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Xangsane
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Xangsane
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Nowiff.Belgrade
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Good waist to hip ratio
Xangsane
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failo for male
Nowiff.Belgrade
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Nowiff.Belgrade
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Dead serious I look like Ernesto? Thoughts?
Xangsane
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Ernesto in goa
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Doubt it
Nowiff.Belgrade
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you are coping arabcel because we all know we take over while you fall
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Xangsane
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Pat pat
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@DalitBoss nigga turning west
might go ER on hatian cannibals @klip11
retired names leaked by (((HAARP))) (retired means bad names)
finally a MTN hurricane youtuber
might go ER on hatian cannibals @klip11
retired names leaked by (((HAARP))) (retired means bad names)
finally a MTN hurricane youtuber
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- this one is gonna be turnt, sorry to say
- Conditions are godlike, I'd refer to what the HWRF is gonna say the intensity is gonna be
Xangsane
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AAAAAND THE FIRST 4CHAN/POL MEME ON AN ERNESTO THREAD CAME OUT
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IT'S OVER BUDDY BOYOS
Xangsane
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@DalitBoss IT'S ALMOST OFFICIAL
RIGHT AT THE CLOSING CEREMONY
RIGHT AT THE CLOSING CEREMONY
Special Message from NHC | Issued 11 Aug 2024 20:14 UTC |
| NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC). |
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@DalitBoss @LevantinePsycho
FORECAST TO BE A C2 ALREADY
MOGS BERYL FIRST FORECAST
JFL
OUCH
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past
several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that
the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a
well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible
satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the
circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become
a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands
during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
will be investigating this system on Monday.
The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast
west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion
should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday.
Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast
should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by
Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the
system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico
on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the
track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more
uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an
environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next
day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the
disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given
the current organizational state of the convection and low-level
wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before
it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system
reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly
conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system
is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to
strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely
continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast
to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the
western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the
intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the
consensus aids beyond a couple of days.
Key Messages:
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.
3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early
Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress
of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
FORECAST TO BE A C2 ALREADY
MOGS BERYL FIRST FORECAST
JFL
OUCH
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past
several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that
the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a
well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible
satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the
circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become
a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands
during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
will be investigating this system on Monday.
The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast
west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion
should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday.
Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast
should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by
Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the
system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico
on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the
track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more
uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an
environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next
day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the
disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given
the current organizational state of the convection and low-level
wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before
it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system
reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly
conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system
is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to
strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely
continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast
to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the
western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the
intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the
consensus aids beyond a couple of days.
Key Messages:
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.
3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early
Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress
of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
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@Jova
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@DalitBoss
NIGGA ERNESTJEET IS HERE
```AL, 05, 2024081218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 566W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, ```
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