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Tropical Storm Jova Forecast Discussion
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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 101441
TCDEP1
Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Limited convection is all that remains with Jova this morning. An
earlier scatterometer pass depicted winds of around 30-35 kt. The
cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate since that time. The
initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory, which is in
good agreement with subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates.
Jova continues to gradually spin down as it traverses cool ocean
temperatures and a stable environment. Jova is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low later tonight. No significant
changes were made to the official forecast, which lies near the
consensus intensity aids.
Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 315/4 kt,
a slightly slower motion as the system continues to weaken and
become steered by the low-level wind pattern. As Jova degenerates
into a remnant low it should turn toward the west and
west-southwest. The NHC forecast track is similar to the
previous advisory, near the model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 24.2N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.6N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1200Z 24.7N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 24.3N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 23.6N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 22.7N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z 21.8N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly