barcacel
Iron
- Joined
- Oct 14, 2022
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first i just want to talk about why android robots can't have rights if you give them a non-sentient AI
there are 2 types of AI:
a simulated AI: A simulated ai would mimic the behavior of humans (software), but it would not mimic the shape, composition and mechanisms of the human brain (hardware) and therefore would not be sentient
an emulated AI: an emulated ai would mimic the shape, composition and mechanisms of the human brain (hardware) and behavior of humans (software), therefore it would be sentient
www.gavinjensen.com
there have been many series and media portraying android robots as "sentient" or "alive", all of that is bullshit. Why? You cannot replicate sentience by just programming a robot, to replicate sentience you would need to scan the whole human brain and copy it into a machine, even then I don't believe it will be possible because I still think that you need a biological brain to create it.
What makes a human different from a pile of plastic? we are made of cells, machines are made of minerals and non-living matter
A non-sentient android robot will just be a piece of plastic imitating a human because it will not be made of cells but instead of minerals and non-living matter
So, we can have android robots that have a simulated AI because they will not be alive, and they can't have rights because they are not living beings.
We will have android robots that will look indistinguishable from humans in 2033 and reverse aging technologies in 2053 to not die of old age
First let's talk about Ray Kurzweil and then after the dates, thanks to this guy we know the 2033 and 2053 date. Ray Kurzweil is the most famous futurist, he predicted a lot of things in 1999 for 2009, 2010s, 2019, 2020s, 2030s and 2045. Here is a 2010 paper of him talking about how his 1999 predictions for 2009 went:
in every prediction he copes saying that he was just off by some years, so they are right or that they are right because some companies have shown the prototype of the product but in reality, they took like 5 years to be launched after the prototype was shown in 2010, If you read all of the 1999 predictions on that 2010 paper i linked called "how my predictions are faring", you can see that every prediction he made for 2009 in 1999 happened in 2015, there are 2 reasons why this happened:
1-all of his predictions are late by1.57x but right due to Kurzweil thinking that computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months when in fact it doubles every 18 months (or 1.57x years)
2-the death of the fifth paradigm started slowing down technology
explanation:
1-all of his predictions are late by 1.57x but right due to Kurzweil thinking that computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months when in fact it doubles every 18 months (or 1.57x years)
in the past Kurzweil always said and thought that the computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months as you can see in this video:
In a 2011 study it was found that this figure was wrong and that it was every 18 months or every 1.57x years. Koomey's Law was created thanks to this study
en.wikipedia.org
www.infoworld.com
So this means that every prediction made by Ray Kurzweil before 2011 will be late by 1.57x. Kurzweil can't admit that he was wrong because he would lose all his scientific credibility
this guy explains it here:
ok, i understand that but the problem is that when i increase 2009 from 1999 by 1.57x i get 2014 and not 2015:
2009 - 1999 = 10
10 x 1.57x = 15.7
15.7 + 1999 = 2014.7
that is easy to respond, that is because:
2-the death of the fifth paradigm started slowing down technology
as you can see in this video:
Kurzweil always thought that the sixth paradigm (3d computer chips) would come in 2013 and that there would be no slowing's in technology, that did not happen. Also, he thought that the new paradigm would be at his full speed when it changed in 2013:
www.npr.org
so, to calculate what should have happened in 2014 if the death of the fifth paradigm of computing never slowed down technology, we can use this graph i made using the performance and development trendline that Kartik Gada modified in his supercomputing video:
as you can see in the graph above 2014.7 would land in 2015, so now we know why everything that Kurzweil predicted for 2009 happened in 2015
Now you need to understand that the fifth paradigm will completely die in 2025, the creator of Moore's law said that Moore's law would die in 2025 and every year moore's law is taking longer to double:
we know a new paradigm will be created after Moore's law dies because there have already been 5 technology paradigms in the past, Kurzweil has talked about them
Why i think that we will go back to the original trendline of where we are supposed to be technologically before 2030:
look at this image made by Kurzweil using old data and old sources and look at the year 1960:
as you can see there was a huge increase in less than one year in 1960 which implies that a new paradigm can get us back to the trendline very fast, in less than one year
we also have another evidence of it in 1962 on this other image made by him:
So, I just think that we will get back to the trendline before 2030 and that is why we can use the 1.57x method to calculate things after 2030 without using the performance development graph
I got this idea by reading one of the comments on his supercomputing video:
Ok so now we can go back to the 2033 android robot and 2053 reverse aging technologies to not die of old age prediction now that we have a method to know when a prediction will happen
in his 1999 book called the age of spiritual machines on page 107 he predicted that we would have sexbots by the start of the third decade of the new century which would be 2021
i know that the word sexbot does not sound like android robot but in his 2009 book called transcend on page 123 he talked more about what kind of things we would have in 2023 and he talked more about these sexbots:
so as you can see they will be android robots because they will look indistinguishable from humans (the reason why he wrote 2023 was because he wanted to show a point on time where many other technologies would be there, he didn't only talk about android robots on that book, he talked about other technologies, medical devices and other things that would be there in 2023)
so, we can use the 1.57x method with 2021 because by that time in our timeline the sixth paradigm will be at his full speed and we will be back in the trendline and where we are supposed to be technologically in that trendline, so the method for 2021 would be:
2021 - 1999 = 22
22 x 1.57 = 34.54
34.54 + 1999 = 2033.54
ok, so we will have android robots in 2033
what about the 2053 reverse aging prediction to not die of old age?
so as you can see he says that age reverse is a reality in 2034, 2034 would be 2053:
2034 - 1999 = 35
35 x 1.57 = 54.95
54.95 + 1999 = 2053.95
so as you can see we will be able to reverse aging in 2053
a quarter of a century is 25 years, unfortunately ray and terry might die of old age before the slow aging technologies that will come in the 2030s and the reverse aging technologies that will come in 2053 because of his predictions being late by 1.57x and the sixth paradigm slowing down things temporarily for them to not even be able to get slow down aging technologies, we will go back to the trendline before 2030 so we will be able to have slow down aging technologies in the 2030s and reverse aging technologies in 2053
Here is the method for 2023:
2023 - 1999 = 24
24 x 1.57 = 37.68
37.68 + 1999 = 2036.68
(1999) the age of spiritual machines book:
(2005) the singularity is near book:
(2009) transcend book:
www.docdroid.net
(2009) transcend book pdfdrive:
www.pdfdrive.com
as for my future, i will just get an electrical engineering technology associate degree and get a robotics technician job in a sex robot company, then i might climb the job ladder and become a robotics engineer or just work fixing android robots
bonus:
old thread on why hypergamy is increasing:
looksmax.org
there are 2 types of AI:
a simulated AI: A simulated ai would mimic the behavior of humans (software), but it would not mimic the shape, composition and mechanisms of the human brain (hardware) and therefore would not be sentient
an emulated AI: an emulated ai would mimic the shape, composition and mechanisms of the human brain (hardware) and behavior of humans (software), therefore it would be sentient
AI: Simulation vs. Emulation — Gavitron
What if we could make a machine that behaved like humans, or even had thoughts and feelings like humans? When we talk about Artificial Intelligence, we often think in these terms. We think about some man-made machine—existing or hypothetical—and we compare some aspect of that machine to some aspect
www.gavinjensen.com
there have been many series and media portraying android robots as "sentient" or "alive", all of that is bullshit. Why? You cannot replicate sentience by just programming a robot, to replicate sentience you would need to scan the whole human brain and copy it into a machine, even then I don't believe it will be possible because I still think that you need a biological brain to create it.
What makes a human different from a pile of plastic? we are made of cells, machines are made of minerals and non-living matter
A non-sentient android robot will just be a piece of plastic imitating a human because it will not be made of cells but instead of minerals and non-living matter
So, we can have android robots that have a simulated AI because they will not be alive, and they can't have rights because they are not living beings.
We will have android robots that will look indistinguishable from humans in 2033 and reverse aging technologies in 2053 to not die of old age
First let's talk about Ray Kurzweil and then after the dates, thanks to this guy we know the 2033 and 2053 date. Ray Kurzweil is the most famous futurist, he predicted a lot of things in 1999 for 2009, 2010s, 2019, 2020s, 2030s and 2045. Here is a 2010 paper of him talking about how his 1999 predictions for 2009 went:
in every prediction he copes saying that he was just off by some years, so they are right or that they are right because some companies have shown the prototype of the product but in reality, they took like 5 years to be launched after the prototype was shown in 2010, If you read all of the 1999 predictions on that 2010 paper i linked called "how my predictions are faring", you can see that every prediction he made for 2009 in 1999 happened in 2015, there are 2 reasons why this happened:
1-all of his predictions are late by1.57x but right due to Kurzweil thinking that computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months when in fact it doubles every 18 months (or 1.57x years)
2-the death of the fifth paradigm started slowing down technology
explanation:
1-all of his predictions are late by 1.57x but right due to Kurzweil thinking that computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months when in fact it doubles every 18 months (or 1.57x years)
in the past Kurzweil always said and thought that the computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months as you can see in this video:
In a 2011 study it was found that this figure was wrong and that it was every 18 months or every 1.57x years. Koomey's Law was created thanks to this study
Koomey's law - Wikipedia
Koomey’s Law: Computing efficiency keeps pace with Moore’s Law
Computers have historically doubled in energy efficiency every 18 months, according to new study
www.infoworld.com
So this means that every prediction made by Ray Kurzweil before 2011 will be late by 1.57x. Kurzweil can't admit that he was wrong because he would lose all his scientific credibility
this guy explains it here:
ok, i understand that but the problem is that when i increase 2009 from 1999 by 1.57x i get 2014 and not 2015:
2009 - 1999 = 10
10 x 1.57x = 15.7
15.7 + 1999 = 2014.7
that is easy to respond, that is because:
2-the death of the fifth paradigm started slowing down technology
as you can see in this video:
Kurzweil always thought that the sixth paradigm (3d computer chips) would come in 2013 and that there would be no slowing's in technology, that did not happen. Also, he thought that the new paradigm would be at his full speed when it changed in 2013:
Ray Kurzweil: Life in the Future
Will new technologies fundamentally change what it means to be human? Inventor and author Ray Kurzweil talks about technological change and its effects on everything from health to artificial intelligence.
www.npr.org
so, to calculate what should have happened in 2014 if the death of the fifth paradigm of computing never slowed down technology, we can use this graph i made using the performance and development trendline that Kartik Gada modified in his supercomputing video:
as you can see in the graph above 2014.7 would land in 2015, so now we know why everything that Kurzweil predicted for 2009 happened in 2015
Now you need to understand that the fifth paradigm will completely die in 2025, the creator of Moore's law said that Moore's law would die in 2025 and every year moore's law is taking longer to double:
we know a new paradigm will be created after Moore's law dies because there have already been 5 technology paradigms in the past, Kurzweil has talked about them
Why i think that we will go back to the original trendline of where we are supposed to be technologically before 2030:
look at this image made by Kurzweil using old data and old sources and look at the year 1960:
as you can see there was a huge increase in less than one year in 1960 which implies that a new paradigm can get us back to the trendline very fast, in less than one year
we also have another evidence of it in 1962 on this other image made by him:
So, I just think that we will get back to the trendline before 2030 and that is why we can use the 1.57x method to calculate things after 2030 without using the performance development graph
I got this idea by reading one of the comments on his supercomputing video:
Ok so now we can go back to the 2033 android robot and 2053 reverse aging technologies to not die of old age prediction now that we have a method to know when a prediction will happen
in his 1999 book called the age of spiritual machines on page 107 he predicted that we would have sexbots by the start of the third decade of the new century which would be 2021
i know that the word sexbot does not sound like android robot but in his 2009 book called transcend on page 123 he talked more about what kind of things we would have in 2023 and he talked more about these sexbots:
so as you can see they will be android robots because they will look indistinguishable from humans (the reason why he wrote 2023 was because he wanted to show a point on time where many other technologies would be there, he didn't only talk about android robots on that book, he talked about other technologies, medical devices and other things that would be there in 2023)
so, we can use the 1.57x method with 2021 because by that time in our timeline the sixth paradigm will be at his full speed and we will be back in the trendline and where we are supposed to be technologically in that trendline, so the method for 2021 would be:
2021 - 1999 = 22
22 x 1.57 = 34.54
34.54 + 1999 = 2033.54
ok, so we will have android robots in 2033
what about the 2053 reverse aging prediction to not die of old age?
so as you can see he says that age reverse is a reality in 2034, 2034 would be 2053:
2034 - 1999 = 35
35 x 1.57 = 54.95
54.95 + 1999 = 2053.95
so as you can see we will be able to reverse aging in 2053
a quarter of a century is 25 years, unfortunately ray and terry might die of old age before the slow aging technologies that will come in the 2030s and the reverse aging technologies that will come in 2053 because of his predictions being late by 1.57x and the sixth paradigm slowing down things temporarily for them to not even be able to get slow down aging technologies, we will go back to the trendline before 2030 so we will be able to have slow down aging technologies in the 2030s and reverse aging technologies in 2053
Here is the method for 2023:
2023 - 1999 = 24
24 x 1.57 = 37.68
37.68 + 1999 = 2036.68
(1999) the age of spiritual machines book:
(2005) the singularity is near book:
(2009) transcend book:
Transcend_ Nine Steps to Living Well Forever ( PDFDrive ) (1).pdf
View and download Transcend_ Nine Steps to Living Well Forever ( PDFDrive ) (1).pdf on DocDroid
www.docdroid.net
(2009) transcend book pdfdrive:
Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever - PDF Drive
In Transcend, famed futurist Ray Kurzweil and his coauthor Terry Grossman, MD, present a cutting edge, accessible program based on the vanguard in nutrition and science. They’ve distilled thousands of scientific studies to make the case that new developments in medicine and technology will allow u
as for my future, i will just get an electrical engineering technology associate degree and get a robotics technician job in a sex robot company, then i might climb the job ladder and become a robotics engineer or just work fixing android robots
bonus:
old thread on why hypergamy is increasing:
at least 55 percent of men will be incel by 2033
remember these old graphs https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/29/share-americans-not-having-sex-has-reached-record-high/ I wondered what would happen if these kept increasing at the same rate, this is what I found: we have 2 options in what could happen: 1-60 percent by 2033...
looksmax.org
