BTC Cycle Peak was Pre-Halving

[noodlelover]

No one knows but this is my prediction.

I'm predicting a small to maybe moderate boost in Alts as Crypto-bro's panic and try to get some gain this cycle. But those may decline for a couple years as well.

I think the effect of the halving was fully priced in this time, and we'll see people gradually pull money out until BTC hits a bottom and sideways accumulates for a year or two.

This cycle feels different. The public has finally made up their minds about Bitcoin, and they are already fully leveraged in, or staying clear of it.

Fed's high interest rates is not good for speculative investments, and I don't think the Fed gives a shit about Biden's campaign enough to boost the economy this time.

The China Buy-In narrative is obvious shit. BTC is still banned in China, and has never been banned in Taiwan. The China/Ban - China/Allow narratives are used to get dumb money to buy and sell so big money can make their moves, but I bet it will have diminished effects.

There's always some upcoming government decision, or corporate decisions, or mass adaption, etc. for a narrative for why BTC will moon but none of this ever has any effect. People have become largely, though not completely, immune to narratives, as far as their abilities to influence the price to do something it wouldn't have already.

 

[Weed]

 

[CarrotMaxxer]

View attachment 2882596

who is this man and why are you so in love with him

 

[Patient A]

No one knows but this is my prediction.

I'm predicting a small to maybe moderate boost in Alts as Crypto-bro's panic and try to get some gain this cycle. But those may decline for a couple years as well.

I think the effect of the halving was fully priced in this time, and we'll see people gradually pull money out until BTC hits a bottom and sideways accumulates for a year or two.

This cycle feels different. The public has finally made up their minds about Bitcoin, and they are already fully leveraged in, or staying clear of it.

Fed's high interest rates is not good for speculative investments, and I don't think the Fed gives a shit about Biden's campaign enough to boost the economy this time.

The China Buy-In narrative is obvious shit. BTC is still banned in China, and has never been banned in Taiwan. The China/Ban - China/Allow narratives are used to get dumb money to buy and sell so big money can make their moves, but I bet it will have diminished effects.

There's always some upcoming government decision, or corporate decisions, or mass adaption, etc. for a narrative for why BTC will moon but none of this ever has any effect. People have become largely, though not completely, immune to narratives, as far as their abilities to influence the price to do something it wouldn't have already.

Yeah everyone’s saying that BTC top is in and it’s just gonna chop for months

Nobody wants to sell BTC cheap and not enough buyers to pump the price.

 

[4ever]

My thots: BTC behaved atypical (Ath pre halving) and alts behaved typical compared to where we are at in the cycle (no new aths yet).
Alts behave atypical in relationship to BTC though (new ath for BTC - but little interest in most major alts).

So far it's memes, Solana, AI and some select stuff like RWAs.

Alts need massive crypto tourist inflows to rally like they did 2021. If BTC does hit 80-100k and normies aren't back, it's over.

 

[eduardkoopman]

I think, the peak will again be about 1 to 1.5 year after the halving. So in 2025 or maybe early 2026.
I don't see enough difference yet, to think this cycle/pattern will not rhymes anymore with the previous 3

BTC behaved atypical (Ath pre halving)

imo, the bull cycle of 2019 till 2021, got cucked in top, due to the black swan even of the covid panic dump.
And due to a cucked previous top, plus inflation haveing been massive in 2022 and 2023. That caused the pre halving ath to be this time higher than the old top.

 

[LVZZO]

And just 71 entities hold 12.235%, from what is public information

BitcoinTreasuries.com

Track Bitcoin Treasuries of companies, miners and countries at BitcoinTreasuries.com.

bitcointreasuries.com

It's not the masses moving the market
It will drop because big investors need money and AI hype will move a lot of money too

This is the truth, bitcoin in all likelihood will continue to drop

 

[4ever]

I think, the peak will again be about 1 to 1.5 year after the halving. So in 2025 or maybe early 2026.
I don't see enough difference yet, to think this cycle/pattern will not rhymes anymore with the previous 3


imo, the bull cycle of 2019 till 2021, got cucked in top, due to the black swan even of the covid panic dump.
And due to a cucked previous top, plus inflation haveing been massive in 2022 and 2023. That caused the pre halving ath to be this time higher than the old top.

Inflationary environment is what made it easier for crypto to run. The bull cycle was more 2020-2022.

Fact is, BTC made a new aths with barely any normie attention. The question is whether 80-100k will make them come back.

Trying to grasp the forum consensus: where is BTC headed next in your opinion?

 

[Blackgymmax]

No one knows but this is my prediction.

I'm predicting a small to maybe moderate boost in Alts as Crypto-bro's panic and try to get some gain this cycle. But those may decline for a couple years as well.

I think the effect of the halving was fully priced in this time, and we'll see people gradually pull money out until BTC hits a bottom and sideways accumulates for a year or two.

This cycle feels different. The public has finally made up their minds about Bitcoin, and they are already fully leveraged in, or staying clear of it.

Fed's high interest rates is not good for speculative investments, and I don't think the Fed gives a shit about Biden's campaign enough to boost the economy this time.

The China Buy-In narrative is obvious shit. BTC is still banned in China, and has never been banned in Taiwan. The China/Ban - China/Allow narratives are used to get dumb money to buy and sell so big money can make their moves, but I bet it will have diminished effects.

There's always some upcoming government decision, or corporate decisions, or mass adaption, etc. for a narrative for why BTC will moon but none of this ever has any effect. People have become largely, though not completely, immune to narratives, as far as their abilities to influence the price to do something it wouldn't have already.

It's not different

 

[eduardkoopman]

Inflationary environment is what made it easier for crypto to run.

I see pros and cons for that reasoning. I dunno what is weighted heavier?
pros are.
* inflation = bitcoin more attractive store of value than cash/fiat.
* inflation = devaluation of usd, thus bitcoin staying at equal value mean rise in usd value.
* people seek more risk, to battle inflation caused loss.

cons are.
* High inflation = higher interest rates = saving may appear more attractive.
cons are.
* High inflation = higher interest rates on loans = people borrowing less and more carefull with loans causing people to be more tight.

Trying to grasp the forum consensus: where is BTC headed next in your opinion?

I guestimate.
Bitcoin sidewaysfrom now till July. In the 55k to 75k ranges.
From August 2024 till 2025, a pump leading to a top on the 250k to 400k range

 

[eduardkoopman]

View attachment 2883146
And just 71 entities hold 12.235%, from what is public information

BitcoinTreasuries.com

Track Bitcoin Treasuries of companies, miners and countries at BitcoinTreasuries.com.

bitcointreasuries.com

It's not the masses moving the market
It will drop because big investors need money and AI hype will move a lot of money too

This is the truth, bitcoin in all likelihood will continue to drop

Still way better numbers than the USD, and most other currencies.

Fiat currencies, are most always shitcoins. Looking at it, from holders%, minting/printing options, control options, and so on

 

[4ever]

I see pros and cons for that reasoning. I dunno what is weighted heavier?
pros are.
* inflation = bitcoin more attractive store of value than cash/fiat.
* inflation = devaluation of usd, thus bitcoin staying at equal value mean rise in usd value.
* people seek more risk, to battle inflation caused loss.

cons are.
* High inflation = higher interest rates = saving may appear more attractive.
cons are.
* High inflation = higher interest rates on loans = people borrowing less and more carefull with loans causing people to be more tight.


I guestimate.
Bitcoin sidewaysfrom now till July. In the 55k to 75k ranges.
From August 2024 till 2025, a pump leading to a top on the 250k to 400k range

Inflation = more money to flow into equities.

Tightening of monetary policy (example: higher rates) -> less money flows into equities.

The crypto bear market was accompanied by a tighther monetary policy.
Fears of rates staying higher for longer came up recently.

I honestly don't see BTC going anywhere close to 250-400k.
I'm sceptical whether it'll reach 100k this cycle to be honest.

 

[eduardkoopman]

I honestly don't see BTC going anywhere close to 250-400k.
I'm sceptical whether it'll reach 100k this cycle to be honest.

yeah. time will tell.
I personally see Bitcoin as something that is a new thing, that is still in the adaption phase, and will see increased adoption into the world. Which is exponential (adoption phases). Hence such will or should cause, massive increase in value spike.
That is obvioulsy a factor (adoption of something new), that goes beyond the general price changes of an asset, that is already fully established and not in adoption growth phase (anymore).

 

[ascension]

13 replies to this post and no one mentions the Bitcoin ETFs. Stick to your day jobs.

 

[noodlelover]

13 replies to this post and no one mentions the Bitcoin ETFs. Stick to your day jobs.

BTC ETF's are the generic "some one else will buy your bags after this corporate/legal/financial change" narrative of the day.

We've seen these every cycle. They never pan out to move the price. They exist only so whales have some one to dump on.

"Global adoption", "Bitcoin super cycle", "Bitcoin/Crypto approved Futures trading", "Nation State Reserve Adoption", "Large Company Reserve Adoption", "Commercial adoption", "Industry adoption", "Africa Adoption", "New Global Reserve Currency", "Hyper-inflation", etc. etc. etc.

I've gotten to the point where I just tune it all out at this point. Bitcoin ETFs have been around since 2021, When they were equally hyped as going to move the price. Day off launch BTC price dropped in a buy the rumor sell the news phenomenon but other than that no noticeable positive effect on price.

Every cycle there's a few "This cycle is different" narratives, and each cycle is different from the last, in that each cycle is weaker, smaller growth than the last, and each cycle ends before most people expect including both the quants "finding" mathematical patterns, and those looking at the sociological and legal narratives.

Bitcoin is in a giant price discovery mode, and at some point it's going to flatline, and then decline when people realize the world has run out of suckers to pump the price, then the world will shift to a new speculative store of value. Right now, it might already be shifting to Ai/chip stocks & index funds.

But that day may be decades off, or it may be this cycle. I'm predicting it's this cycle that has very little growth, or no growth (Not above 200K) and after that starts a death spiral while other asset classes continue to appreciate. But Bitcoin has found a niche use case for drugs, criminal activity, and techno novelty, that will stick and keep some of the minors around, keeping the price above some minimum amount. I also don't see BTC ever going bellow 30K again.

Bitcoin is like the "Ask Jeves" or "Myspace" of crypto-currencies imho. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

If you've been around long enough you hear these narratives over, and over, spoken very passionately by smart sounding articulate people, and plastered all over the media. You buy into the narratives and get very excited, but you get let down over and over, and over, and over. You eventually develop some thick skin to them.

 

[ascension]

BTC ETF's are the generic "some one else will buy your bags after this corporate/legal/financial change" narrative of the day.

We've seen these every cycle. They never pan out to move the price. They exist only so whales have some one to dump on.

Wrong. The BTC ETF is the number 1 reason that Bitcoin hit an ATH before the halving, for the first time ever.

Bitcoin is in a giant price discovery mode, and at some point it's going to flatline, and then decline when people realize the world has run out of suckers to pump the price, then the world will shift to a new speculative store of value. Right now, it might already be shifting to Ai/chip stocks & index funds.

Been hearing this for 14 years straight now. But it keeps going up. When will you accept that it's not "suckers" pumping the price? You need hundreds of millions of dollars to move the BTC price by 2%, and so far it's up by 300% since 2023. The people pumping BTC are big money. It's funny how broke neckbeards sit there saying "oh, it's just suckers buying BTC" - ignoring the billions being put into it each cycle by smart money/big money investors.

 

[noodlelover]

Wrong. The BTC ETF is the number 1 reason that Bitcoin hit an ATH before the halving, for the first time ever.

ETF approval triggered the end of the bear market. And then money flooded in.

What I'm proposing is that the halving effects might already be baked in. The crypto market is becoming more and more efficient (harder to predict and less volatile), as the market matures and smart money moves in to counterbalance dumb money. Smart money is always looking for alpha, so we can't expect any market to be inefficient and easily predictable forever.

2012 Halving - BTC Cycle top occurred 12 months after

2016 Halving - BTC Cycle top occurred 16 months after - Less efficient market, more dumb money flooded in but institutional investors stayed away for the most part.

2020 Halving - Market now maturing, and the BTC cycle top is only 11 months after the halving. Because we now have an clear pattern of halving bull runs, the market stays inefficient for a shorter amount of time.

2024 Halving - The halving cycle is now so clear and apparent to every one and their grandma that it winds up getting baked in before the halving occurs. At least partially baked in.

Been hearing this for 14 years straight now. But it keeps going up.

With diminishing returns.

The pattern of percentage gains from previous ATHs is:

2012 Cycle - 39x,
2016 Cycle - 16.3x,
2020 Cycle - 3.3x
2024 Cycle - ???

What I see is a giant wedge pattern occurring on top of a diminishing curve. So as BTC price trajectory becomes more and more obvious from more and more data, the cycle peaks get smaller and smaller relative to the last one.

At some point every wedge pattern breaks and enters price discovery mode. It usually breaks before the wedge pattern ends, because the pattern becomes apparent to every one looking at it, before it completes. (Predictions get baked into markets)

If we see every cycle multiple increase as 2.4x less than the previous cycle increase that would predict a BTC top of 87K this cycle.

But this clear pattern itself changes things as no one wants to be left holding the bag, especially not rich people who have lots of money invested in Bitcoin.

When will you accept that it's not "suckers" pumping the price? You need hundreds of millions of dollars to move the BTC price by 2%, and so far it's up by 300% since 2023. The people pumping BTC are big money. It's funny how broke neckbeards sit there saying "oh, it's just suckers buying BTC" - ignoring the billions being put into it each cycle by smart money/big money investors.

No need to make assumptions about me. I've made a decent amount of money off Bitcoin and crypto.

I should stress that I'm setup to make a lot of money if BTC goes high this cycle, and either loose very little, or make a good amount, if it does what I'm predicting. I always consider a range of different possible futures when I'm making decisions, because nothing is certain.