HURRICANE IDALIA WILL GO ER ON THE PANHANDLE COAST OF FLORIDA ON AUGUST 30TH. FORECAST, MAPS AND MODELS INCLUDED.

[Xangsane]

 

[Xangsane]

 

[Deleted member 31155]

Typhoon Xangsane, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Milenyo, was a typhoon that affected the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand during the 2006 Pacific typhoon season. The name Xangsane was submitted by Laos and means elephant.[1]

 

[Xangsane]

Typhoon Xangsane, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Milenyo, was a typhoon that affected the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand during the 2006 Pacific typhoon season. The name Xangsane was submitted by Laos and means elephant.[1]

How many did I go ER on?

 

[Deleted member 31155]

How many did I go ER on?

5 million

 

[GabachoCopium]

Good thing i don’t live in florida

 

[Xangsane]

Good thing i don’t live in florida

Any Floridacels on here?
I remember last year Ian Somerhalder went ER on Gandy Bridge

5 million

I mean on the Wikipedia page nigga

 

[Deleted member 31155]

Any Floridacels on here?
I remember last year Ian Somerhalder went ER on Gandy Bridge

I mean on the Wikipedia page nigga

312 over for typhoonxangsanecels

 

[Xangsane]

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312 over for typhoonxangsanecels

Over for filipinocels
Look up "Hurricane Mitch 1998"

 

[Xangsane]

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Latest HAFS shows a big bend MH landfall
Over

 

[Xangsane]

It's over

Cat 5 landfall

 

[Xangsane]

Over for tallahasseecels

Cat 5 landfall


Franklin goes ER in bERmuda at the same time

 

[Xangsane]

 

[Xangsane]

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 271500
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

So far this morning, the overall cloud pattern of the tropical
cyclone has not become significantly better organized. The small
center is partially exposed on GOES-16 visible imagery, and
convective banding features are still not very well defined. The
current intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory which is in
line with the latest Dvorak Satellite estimates. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, flying at around 12000 ft, is near the center of
the system taking Doppler radar wind velocity measurements. These
data should provide valuable information on the structure of the
cyclone for initializing the numerical weather prediction models.

The center of the cyclone appears to have been moving in a small
clockwise loop overnight and into this morning, and it will
probably complete this loop today. The initial motion estimate is
now around 090/2 kt. Steering currents should remain weak through
today and tonight. Beginning on Monday, a mid-level ridge starts to
build near southern Florida and eastward. This evolution should
cause a generally northward motion during the next couple of days.
In 48 to 72 hours, a mid-level trough dropping into the eastern U.S.
will likely induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the
system across the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast on Wednesday. The
official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the
previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction. Users are reminded not to focus on
the exact forecast track, since strong winds, heavy rains and
dangerous storm surges extend well away from the center.

The cyclone will be moving over waters of high oceanic heat content
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a moist mid- to
low-level air mass for the next few days. An upper-tropospheric
trough is predicted to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico in 48
to 72 hours. Although this feature could produce some moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system, positive
vorticity advection and diffluent upper-level flow to the east of
the trough will likely be conducive for strengthening. The
official forecast, like the previous one, calls for the cyclone to
reach hurricane status over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72
hours. This is at the high end of the latest intensity model
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening
storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds
along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida
Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Although it is too soon
to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts,
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast,
have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by
local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches may be required
for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later today.

2. Heavy rainfall is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding
and landslides across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba with tropical storm conditions possible on the Isle of
Youth.

3. Scattered flooding from heavy rainfall is likely over in
portions of the southeast U.S. by mid to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

[Xangsane]

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[Xangsane]

the peak will be stronger
IT'S OVER

000
WTNT45 KNHC 272059
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Idalia's cloud pattern is gradually becoming a little better
organized, with a curved convective band forming over the southern
semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is currently
restricted over the northern portion of the system, however.
The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt based on a subjective
Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Another aircraft reconnaissance mission
into the storm is scheduled for tonight.

The tropical cyclone continues to move rather slowly, and the
initial motion estimate is 040/3 kt. Idalia should remain in a weak
steering pattern through tonight so slow and possibly erratic
motion is likely for the next 12 hours. On Monday, a mid-level
ridge begins to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone.
This should result in a slightly east of northward motion during
the next day or two. When the system moves into the northeast Gulf
of Mexico, a mid-level trough developing over the eastern United
states will likely cause Idalia to turn northeastward with an
increase in forward speed. The new official forecast is again
shifted slightly eastward, and is somewhat faster than the previous
one. This is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is
also between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus tracks.

The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Idalia will be
traversing eastern Gulf of Mexico waters of high oceanic heat
content, and the environmental air mass should remain fairly moist.
The flow to the east of an upper-level trough could impart some
vertical wind shear over the system, but this shear could also be
compensated by the conducive effect of upper-level diffluence.
There is considerable spread in the model intensity guidance,
ranging from minimal to major hurricane status before landfall on
the northeast Gulf coast. The official intensity forecast is a
little higher than the previous one, and remains near the higher
end of the guidance. Given the uncertainties, users should monitor
future NHC forecasts for possible changes in the predicted strength
of Idalia, and prepare for possible significant impacts within the
hurricane and storm surge watch areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of
Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday.
Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude
of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to
the forecast and follow any advice given by local officials. Storm
surge and hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Scattered flash and urban flooding can be expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday. Flooding
from heavy rainfall is likely over portions of the southeast U.S. by
mid to late week.

3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba with tropical storm
conditions possible on the Isle of Youth.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 20.1N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 20.5N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 21.7N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 25.6N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 28.7N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 31.3N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.5N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 01/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch